In Dead Poets Society, Robin Williams climbs onto his desk and tells his students to look around. Things look very different from up here.

Three years ago, I did something similar at the Needham conference in New York. I didn't stand on a desk. But I told a room full of Wall Street analysts they were looking at the biggest shift in television from the wrong angle.

They thought streaming replacing cable was one moment. One shift. Done. I told them it was four steps. And those four steps would unfold over the course of a decade. Some people in the room thought I was crazy.

Here's what the room looked like from up on the desk:
1) 2025 - More people reachable on streaming than linear TV
2) 2026 - People spend more time on streaming than linear TV ← YOU ARE HERE
3) 2028 - Ad money flips ← 2027?
4) 2030 - Streaming gets more ad impressions than linear TV

Each step builds on the one before it. Reach comes first because streaming platforms are everywhere. Time spent follows because once people can watch, they do. Ad dollars follow attention because that's what ad dollars have always done. And impressions come last because streaming still runs far fewer ads per hour than linear TV.

In late 2025, I expanded this into a five-part newsletter series that became our most popular content of the year:

1) Red Pill or Blue Pill? (Overview)
2) Every Person in Your House Has 3 TV Screens (Reach)
3) How the Albanian Army Won Our Attention (Time Spent)
4) Follow the Money (Ad Spend)
5) The Last Dance (Ad Impressions)

Two years later, it's time for a scorecard.

Let’s break it down into 3 big questions:
1) How's the framework holding up?
2) Why was I wrong about timing?
3) Where does this all end up by 2035?

Short answer: The direction was right. The timing was too conservative.

The scorecard:
Step 1, Reach: Done. 70% of viewers are reachable on streaming. Crossed over in 2023. Streaming now reaches 9% more people than linear TV.

Step 2, Time Spent: Done. 52% of TV time goes to streaming. Crossed over in 2025, 42% faster than I predicted.

Step 3, Ad Spend: In progress. 43% of TV ad dollars go to streaming. Crossover projected by 2028.

Step 4, Ad Impressions: Years out. 30% of TV ad impressions are on streaming. Crossover projected by 2030. Linear still runs 14 ad minutes per hour vs. streaming's 4. But 2025 is the floor. Streaming impressions grow 127% over the next five years.

The framework is holding up. Two steps done, third accelerating, fourth is math and time. The direction was right. The timing was too conservative.

The desk gives you a better view. It doesn't give you a crystal ball.

I predicted streaming would pass linear in time spent within 45 months. It took 26. That's 42% faster.

Bottom line: Hollywood and Madison Avenue thought this was crazy. The transition is happening even faster than predicted. 

Here is what happens between now and 2035:
1) Streaming share of ad spend: 43% to 71% (↑ 66%)
2) Streaming share of ad impressions: 30% to 62% (↑ 111%)
3) Streaming share of time spent: 52% to 69% (conservative), 80% (bull), 90% (super bull)
4) Two years in, data is tracking to the bull case.

The rule of 100 is the endgame:
1) 100% of TV will be streamed
2) 100% of TV advertising will be streamed
3) 100X the advertiser base vs. national TV today
4) $100 CPMs (today: $19-$39)
5) $100B US TV ad market

Two steps done. Third accelerating. Fourth is math and time.

Three years ago, I climbed onto the desk at Needham and told the room to look at TV differently. The view from up here is clearer than ever. The streaming decade isn't coming. We're in it.

O Captain, My Captain.