A few short stories about television.

One is about a remote control.

It used to land on Channel 5. Or 27. Or whatever number ESPN happened to be. Now it lands on an app. Netflix. YouTube. Hulu. The numbers disappeared. The viewers moved.

Another story is about money.

For decades, television worked like a vending machine. Insert attention. Out came ads. Thirteen minutes an hour. Every hour. The more people watched, the more ads you could sell.

Streaming broke that machine. Not by killing ads but by offering fewer of them. Sometimes none at all.

A third story is about density.

Linear TV still squeezes more ads out of every hour. It monetizes harder. So even as streaming wins time spent, linear still wins ad impressions. It feels backward. The old system collects more money while the new one collects more viewers.

But markets do not flip overnight.

They drift. Then they tip.

It reminds me of Hemingway’s line in The Sun Also Rises:

“How did you go bankrupt?”
“Two ways. Gradually, then suddenly.”

Let’s break it down into 6 big questions:
1) How much TV has ads?
2) How much of TV ad impressions come from streaming today?
3) Why is streaming's share of impressions so much smaller than its share of time?
4) What needs to change for streaming to take the lead?
5) What does TV look like in 2035?
6) What happens to the total supply of TV ads?

How much TV has ads?

Total TV time according to (Nielsen):
1) Ad-supported - 74%
2) Ad-free - 26%

Ad-supported total TV time:
1) Linear - 54%
2) Streaming - 46%

Known unknown: I assume the above data from Nielsen only covers the Gauge's broadcast, cable, and streaming segments.  This may be incorrect.  To compare these, I removed the “other category” and reapplied the share so everything adds up to 100%.

Quick math on ad-supported linear TV:
1) 74% of all TV is ad-supported
2) 54% of ad-supported time is linear
3) 40% of all TV time is ad-supported linear
4) 84% of all linear TV is ad-supported

Quick math on ad-supported streaming TV:
1) 74% of all TV is ad-supported
2) 46% of ad-supported time is streaming
3) 34% of all TV time is ad-supported streaming
4) 65% of all streaming TV is ad-supported

How much of TV ad impressions come from streaming today?

The shift: Streaming keeps gaining ground in TV ads.

Streaming will capture 30% of TV ad impressions in 2026, up from 22% last year.

The big picture: Viewers moved to streaming first. Ad impressions are now catching up.

Streaming share of TV ad impressions:
1) 2025 - 22%
2) 2030 - 50%
3) 2035 - 62%

Why is streaming's share of impressions so much smaller than its share of time?

Linear TV runs about 2.5X more ads per hour.

Ad minutes per hour:
1) Linear TV - 13.2 (↑ 0.6%)
2) Streaming TV - 5.0 (↑ 33%)

Linear’s advantage:
1) % of TV time - -8%
2) % of time with ads - +24%
3) % of ad-supported time - +13%
4) Ad load/hour - +167%
5) % of ad impressions - +133%

Why it matters: Each small edge stacks on top of another.

That’s how linear ends up with a huge overall lead in impressions.

What needs to change for streaming to take the lead?

Streaming improves on the same factors that once helped linear.

Over the next five years, streaming ad impressions will grow 127%.

Growth for streaming (2025-30):
1) % of ad time - ↑ 27%
2) % of time with ads - ↑ 22%
3) % of ad-supported time - ↑ 40%
4) Ad load/hour - ↑ 56%
5) % of ad impressions - ↑ 127%

Change in overall ad impressions (2025-30):
1) Streaming TV - ↑ 170% 
2) Linear TV - ↓ 23%
3) Convergent TV - ↑ 19%

What does TV look like in 2035?

Share of TV in 2035:
1) Streaming (ads) - 55%
2) Linear (ads) - 27%
3) Streaming (no ads) - 14%
4) Linear (no ads) - 4%

What happens to the total supply of TV ads?

2025 is the low point for  TV ad impressions. By 2035, we will be 11% below our peak, before ad-free streaming took off.

Ad minutes per hour (all TV):
1) 2015 - 12.8
2) 2025 - 8.5
3) 2035 - 11.4

What’s next?

The streaming decade in four steps:
1) 2025 - More people reachable on streaming than linear TV
2) 2026 - People spend more time on streaming than linear TV ← YOU ARE HERE
3) 2028 - Ad money flips ← 2027?
4) 2030 - Streaming gets more ad impressions than linear TV

Go deeper:
1) Red Pill or Blue Pill? (Overview)
2) Every Person in Your House Has 3 TV Screens (Reach)
3) How the Albanian Army Won Our Attention (Time Spent)
4) Follow the Money (Ad Spend)
5)The Last Dance (Ad Impressions)