The top songs, artists, playlists, and podcasts of 2019—and the last decade

Most-streamed artists of 2019 according to Spotify:
1) 
Post Malone
2) Billie Eilish
3) Ariana Grande
4) Ed Sheeran
5) Bad Bunny

Most-streamed artists of the decade:
1) 
Drake
2) Ed Sheeran
3) Post Malone
4) Ariana Grande
5) Eminem

Most-streamed tracks of 2019:
1) 
“Señorita” – Camila Cabello, Shawn Mendes
2) “bad guy” – Billie Eilish
3) “Sunflower” – Post Malone, Swae Lee
4) “7 Rings” – Ariana Grande
5) “Old Town Road – Remix” – Lil Nas X, Billy Ray Cyrus

Most-streamed tracks of the decade:
1) 
“Shape of You” – Ed Sheeran
2) “One Dance”  – Drake, Kyla, WizKid
3) “rockstar (feat. 21 Savage)” – 21 Savage, Post Malone
4) “Closer” – Halsey, The Chainsmokers
5) “Thinking out Loud” – Ed Sheeran

Top 5 touring acts of the decade according to Pollstar:
1) 
U2 – $1.0B
2) 
The Rolling Stones – $929M
3) 
Ed Sheeran – $922M
4) 
Taylor Swift – $900M
5) 
Beyoncé – $857M

Total concert revenue for top 100 tours according to Pollstar:
1) 
2010 – $2.2B (↓ 13%)
2) 2011 – $2.3B (↑ 6%)
3) 2012 – $2.5B (↑ 8%)
4) 2013 – $2.8B (↑ 10%)
5) 2014 – $2.7B (↓ 2%)
6) 2015 – $3.1B (↑ 14%)
7) 2016 – $3.3B (↑ 7%)
8) 2017 – $3.7B (↑ 9%)
9) 2018 – $3.7B (↑ 0%)

FYI: Concerts generate 2X the revenue of an NBA/NHL game in the same arena.

Why NBA TV ratings are down

YoY change in NBA ratings by network according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 
TNT – ↓ 22%
2) 
ESPN – ↓ 19%
3) 
Regional Sports Networks (RSN) – ↓ 7%

Average viewers/game (YoY growth):
1) 2018-19 – 1.75M
2) 
2019-20 – 1.45M (↓ 17%)

Quote from Adam Silver – Commissioner @ NBA:
 “Especially for the NBA, which is primarily a cable-satellite sport, that system is broken to a certain extent… It’s not just in terms of the loss of homes, but our young viewers, in particular, are tuning out cable, traditional cable.”

The big question: Would the NBA fare better on broadcast TV?  Mak Cuban seems to think so.

Teams w/ the most nationally televised games in 2019-20:
1) Los Angeles Lakers – 43
2) Golden State Warriors – 42
3) Los Angeles Clippers – 26

NBA TV rights fees/year (% change) by deal according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 
2002-08 – $767M
2) 
2008-16 – $930M (↑ 62%)
3) 2016-25 – $2.6B (↑ 215%)

The big big picture: The NBA’s future is in China.

Key details for the NBA in China:
1) 490M 
people in China watched NBA content on Tencent last year
2) 21M people in China watched part of Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals on Tencent
3) 18M people (average minute audience) watched Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals in the U.S.

More #1: NBA ratings are in a steep decline: Sorting through some popular myths — and looking for a solution

More #2: NBA TV Now Available as Direct Streaming Service, No Cable or Satellite TV Required 

More #3: NBA Sets Earlier Start Times for TV Doubleheaders

Martin Scorsese’s biggest opening weekend ever was on Netflix — but there’s a catch

Key details for The Irishman over the initial week according to Nielsen:
1) 3.5 
hours in length
2) 17.1M total viewers
3) 13.2M average minute audience
4) 3.9M total viewers on day one
5) 751K completed on day one
6) 19% completion rate on day one

FWIW: Netflix released its own viewer number of 26M.

Average minute audience over the initial week according to Nielsen:
1) Bird Box – 16.9M
2) The Irishman – 13.2M
3) El Camino – 8.2M

Netflix has three categories for movie viewers:
1) Starters – Watch at least 2 minutes
2) Watchers – Complete at least 70%
3) Completers – Finish movie

Completion % on day one, according to Nielsen:
1) The Irishman – 18%
2) Bird Box – 18%
2) El Camino – 11%

Media age of viewer:
1) The Irishman – 49
2) Netflix – 31

Video: Netflix Film Chief Scott Stuber Says Streamer Planning to Release More Audience Numbers

More #1: ‘The Irishman’ VFX Supervisor Details De-Aging De Niro in New Episode of ‘Behind the Screen’

More #2: Why Watching ‘The Irishman’ At Home Is Better Than In A Theater

More #3: Despite Controversy, ‘The Irishman’ Is Netflix’s Biggest Theatrical Release at Home and Abroad

eMarketer: Television Update Fall 2019

Addressable TV spend by year (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 
2016 – $760M
2) 
2017 – $970M (↑ 28%)
3) 2018 – $1.5B (↑ 51%)
4) 2019P – $2.0B (↑ 37%)
5) 2020P – $2.9B (↑ 44%)
6) 2021P – $3.5B (↑ 21%)

Video: Mythbusting with LiveRamp Video GM Allison Metcalfe

More #1: Addressing The Kinks Of Addressable TV

More #2: The Ad-Free Disney Plus Wake-Up Call: We Must Scale Universal Addressable TV+ Now

More #3: Addressable’s Accelerating Push Into National Inventory

Baby Yodas don’t come cheap: The streaming wars will cost Disney, Netflix, and WarnerMedia $16 billion

Pay-TV subscribers by sports and news viewership (% of total) according to MoffettNathanson:
1) 
Sports + News – 48.1M (51%)
2) News only – 24.5M (26%)
3) Non-Sports/News – 13.0M (14%)
4) Sports only – 8.2M (9%)

The big question: How long before those 13M non-sports/news HH cut the cord and move to streaming video-on-demand (SVOD)?

Projected non-Sports programming expenses in 2019:
1) Disney – $18.7B
2) Comcast – $15.9B
3)
 AT&T – $12.2B
4) Netflix – $9.2B
5) 
ViacomCBS – $8.8B
6)
 Amazon – $5.8B
7) Fox – $3.8B
8) Discovery – $2.6B
9) Apple – $2.0B
10) AMC – $1.0B

U.S. subscription revenue for SVOD according to Cowen:
1) 2019 – $19B
2) 2024 – $41B

Share of consumers who watch their most recent favorite show through streaming according to Hub Research Base:
1) 
2015 – 43%
2) 
2016 – 47%
3) 
2017 – 52%
4) 
2018 – 54%
5) 
2019 – 63%

Video: MoffettNathanson’s Michael Nathanson | Full interview | Code Media 2019

Podcast: The Streaming Wars: A New Era In TV

More #1: The Streaming Era Has Finally Arrived. Everything Is About to Change

More #2: For Streamers, the Great Unbundling Was Too Good to Be True

It’s time for impressions to be the currency of local broadcast TV

The big news: Local broadcast TV is moving away from ratings and toward impression-based selling.

Quote from Steve Lanzano – President and CEO @ TVB:
“For us to be able to integrate all of the assets we have — whether it’s over-the-top, streaming, websites — and put together an integrated package for an advertiser, we need to go from percentages to actual impressions.”

Why this matters for buyers: Local broadcast TV will become part of cross screen buys along with CTV and digital video.

Why this matters for sellers: Any program with a rating below 0.05 rounds down to 0.00.  For example, the number of programs that show up with Nielsen increases by 5-7% with impressions versus ratings.

Quote from Wendy McMahon – President @ ABC Owned Television Stations:
“We see the transition from ratings to impressions as aligned with the consumer shift to cross-platform viewing, a shift we have taken advantage of to grow total audience…”

Key details for local media agencies view on impressions:
1) 81% surveyed by TVB plans to move to impression-based buying by the end of 2020
2) 70% surveyed by the 4As said that impressions were the best currency for cross screen video buying

Quote from Kathy Doyle – EVP of Local Investment @ IPG MAGNA:
“This is easy math. We learned this in fifth grade. You can do this. I know it seems intimidating and hard to do, but it’s not. And you don’t have to move the mountain all at once. Pick one client in one market and test it,”

The groups involved include:
1) 
TVB
2) ABC
3) CBS
4) NBC
5) Nexstar
6) Hearst Television
7) Gray Television
8) Graham Media

Video: Local TV Will Go Impression-Based: WideOrbit’s Mathewson

More #1: How Local TV Is Moving Forward

More #2: NextGen TV Fills in the Blanks as a New Local Ad Platform

More #3: Impressions-Based Advertising Long Overdue

As the pay TV bundle unravels, advertisers should stick to sports

Share of programming watched live according to Nielsen:
1) NFL Sunday Night Football – 97%
2) 
60 Minutes – 91%
3) 
Average scripted program – 69%

Sports share of broadcast ratings for 18-49 demo:
1) 2014-15 – 29%
2) 
2018-19 – 42%

Ad impressions for Emmy-nominated series (% change) according to Fox Sports:
1) 1998 – 329M
2) 
2018 – 31M (↓ 91%)

Ad impressions for premium sports event (% change):
1) 
1998 – 467M
2) 
2018 – 438M (↓ 6%)

Key details for sports on TV:
1) 88 of 100 top broadcasts in 2018 were sports
2) The NFL accounted for 8 of the top 10
3) 26% 
of global content spend is on sports

Global sports rights (% change):
1) 2012 – $20B
2) 
2018 – $38B (↑ 90%)

Share of global sports rights (% of total):
1) 
United States – $19B (50%)
2) Europe – $11B (29%)
3) Other – $8B (21%)

More #1: Safe Bet: TV Sports Getting Bigger, Pricier

More #2: Billions of minutes and thinking about the TV business

More #3: Attendance woes for sporting events were inevitable

Political ads are tricky to define in digital era 

The big question: How do we define a “political ad” and what, if any, limitations should tech platforms put in place?

Why this matters: Google announced the removal of microtargeting for political ads, and Facebook is considering similar moves.

Quote from Mark Zuckerberg – CEO @ Facebook:
“From a business perspective, the controversy certainly isn’t worth the small part of our business they make up…But political ads are an important part of voice, especially for local candidates, up-and-coming challengers, and advocacy groups that may not get much media attention otherwise.”

Video: Facebook CTO Mike Schroepfer on Political Ads

More #1: Getting rid of microtargeting in political advertising is a terrible idea

More #2: Don’t abolish political ads on social media. Stop microtargeting

U.S. Local Advertising Revenue to Exceed $161B in 2020, According to BIA Advisory Services’ Forecast

Local ad spend by year (YoY growth) according to BIA Advisory Services:
1) 
2018 – $145.5B
2) 
2019P – $152.7B (↑ 5%)
3) 2020P – $161.1B (↑ 6%)
4) 2021P – $165.8B (↑ 3%)
5) 2022P – $173.8B (↑ 5%)
6) 2023P – $179.6B (↑ 3%)
7) 2024P – $187.6B (↑ 4%)

Local ad spend by platform (% of total):
1) 
Digital – $52.8B (33%)
2) Direct Mail – $37.1B (23%)
3) Local TV – $26.3B (16%)
4) Local Radio – $14.3B (9%)
5) Other – $30.6B (19%)

Local video ad spend by year (YoY growth):
1) 
2018 – $29.8B
2) 
2019P – $30.3B (↑ 2%)
3) 2020P – $33.0B (↑ 9%)
4) 2021P – $32.4B (↓ 2%)
5) 2022P – $34.7B (↑ 7%)
6) 2023P – $34.6B (↓ 0%)
7) 2024P – $37.1B (↑ 7%)

Digital share of local broadcast ad revenue:
1) 2018 – 6%
2) 
2019P – 7%
3) 2020P – 8%
4) 2021P – 9%
5) 2022P – 9%
6) 2023P – 10%
7) 2024P – 11%

More #1: Scripps: Don’t Overconsolidate In One Business

More #2: Nexstar: Making The Most Of Having The Most

More #3: Sinclair CEO says he’s pivoted to local news and sports to avoid streaming services ‘sea of blood’

Extreme Reach: 2019-Q3 Video Benchmarks

Share of impressions by length in 2019-Q3 according to Extreme Reach:
1) 30s – 66%
2) 
15s – 32%
3) 
60s – 1%
4) 
6s – 1%

Share of impressions for 6s:
1) 2017-Q1 – 0.04%
2) 
2017-Q2 – 2%
3) 
2017-Q3 – 3%
4) 
2017-Q4 – 5%
5) 
2018-Q1 – 3%
6) 
2018-Q2 – 1%
7) 
2018-Q3 – 2%
8) 2018-Q4 – 1%
9) 2019-Q1 – <1%
10) 2019-Q2 – 1%
11) 2019-Q3 – 1%

Share of impressions by device (YoY share change):
1) 
Connected TV – 51% (↑ 13%)
2) Mobile – 26% (↓ 5%)
3) Desktop – 15% (↓ 6%)
4) Tablet – 5% (↓ 4%)
5) Other – 3% (↑ 2%)

Completion rate by device:
1) 
Connected TV – 96%
2) 
Tablet – 88%
3) 
Desktop –  80%
4) 
Mobile – 80%

Average view time by length:
1) 30s  – 26s (87%)
2) 15s  – 12s (80%)

More #1: Growth in Video Is Pushing Digital Ad Spend to Record High

More #2: 30s Now Represent Two-Thirds Of Digital Video Ads Served