Influencer Marketing Has Peaked — Here’s What’s Next

The average cost per paid influencer post on YouTube (YoY growth) according to Izea:
1) 
2014 – $420
2) 
2015 – $833 (↑ 98%)
3) 2016 – $6,150 (↑ 638%)
4) 2017 – $7,954 (↑ 29%)
5) 2018 – $4,085 (↓ 49%)
6) 2019 – $6,700 (↑ 64%)

The average cost per paid influencer post on Instagram (YoY growth):
1) 
2014 – $134
2) 
2015 – $381 (↑ 184%)
3) 2016 – $863 (↑ 126%)
4) 2017 – $1,170 (↑ 36%)
5) 2018 – $1,144 (↓ 2%)
6) 2019 – $1,643 (↑ 4%)

The average cost per paid influencer post on Instagram by follower count according to Mediakix:
1) 
10K – $500
2) 
50K – $4,000
3) 500K – $10,000
4) 1M – $25,000

Cost to acquire 1,000 fake followers according to Masarah Paquet-Clouston:
1) 
YouTube – $49
2) 
Facebook – $39
3) 
Instagram – $16

More #1: ‘It’s very transactional’: Confessions of a marketer on working with influencers

More #2: “At What Point Is 3 Million Gonna Be Success?” : The Ever-Evolving, Often Perilous Business of Being a YouTube Star

More #3: Influencer Marketing Has Peaked — Here’s What’s Next

More than 10 million sign up for Disney+ in first day

Wow: Disney+ surpassed 10M sign-ups in the first 24 hours, which is higher than analyst predictions of 8M for 2019!

Not so fast, my friend: This number includes free-trials along with Verizon customers, such as the Screens family, who will get their first year free.

Disney+ launch scheduled for November 2019:
1) Australia
2) Canada
3) Netherlands
4) New Zealand
5) Puerto Rico
6) United States

Disney + launch scheduled for March 2020:
1) France
2) Germany
3) Italy
4) Spain
5) United Kingdom

Global video subscribers in 2018:
1) Streaming – 613M
2) Cable TV – 556M

Podcast: Where Streams Come True

Video: Disney officially enters the streaming wars – here’s what six experts say investors should watch

More #1: The 4 Minute History of Disney

More #2: 10 lessons for Disney, Apple, and all the new streaming companies trying to take down Netflix

More #3: Bob Iger Takes the Gloves Off for Disney’s Streaming Debut

TV ad spend to drop 3 percent to $70.3 billion in 2019: report 

TV advertising according to eMarketer (YoY growth):
1)
 2017 – $70.2B 
2) 2018 – $72.4B (↑ 3%)
3) 2019P – $70.3B (↓ 3%)
4) 2020P – $71.0B (↑ 1%)
5) 2021P – $70.3B (↓ 1%)
6) 2022P – $69.8B (↓ 1%)
7) 2023P – $69.1B (↓ 1%)

TV share of video advertising:
1) 
2019P – 66%
2) 
2020P – 63%
3) 
2021P – 59%
4) 
2022P – 56%
5) 
2023P – 54%

Video: Watch my full keynote speech on the future of the video ad market from RampUp New York.

More #1: Yesterday’s Startup Strategy: Insert TV Buzzword [Here] For Immediate Success

More #2: It’s Time To Integrate CTV Into TV Ad Ecosystem

More #3: Same same but different: Understanding changes to the US video market

Q3 2019 Cord-Cutting Monitor: Live Is Dead

QoQ change in pay-TV subscribers according to Leichtman Research Group and MoffettNathanson:
1)
 Traditional pay-TV – ↓ 1.8M
2) 
Streaming pay-TV – ↑ 529K
3) 
Total pay-TV – ↓ 1.3M

QoQ change in traditional pay-TV subscribers:
1) 
AT&T – ↓ 1.2M
2) 
Comcast – ↓ 238K
3) 
Charter – ↓ 75K
4) 
Dish – ↓ 66K

Traditional pay-TV subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 
2018-Q3 – 86.1M
2) 
2019-Q3 – 81.0M (↓ 6%)

Streaming pay-TV subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 
2018-Q3 – 6.7M
2) 
2019-Q3 – 9.0M (↑ 34%)

YoY change in pay-TV subscribers:
1)
 Traditional pay-TV – ↓ 5.1M
2) 
Streaming pay-TV – ↑ 2.3K
3) 
Total pay-TV – ↓ 2.8M

Traditional pay-TV growth according to UBS:
1)
 2018 – ↓ 1.2M (↓ 1%)
2) 2019P – ↓ 6.4M (↓ 6%)
3) 2020P – ↓ 6.2M (↓ 7%)

Quote from MoffettNathanson:
“What IS dead, or at least rapidly dying, is live entertainment. The live TV model for entertainment programming is being displaced by SVOD and AVOD much more rapidly than the cord-cutting numbers alone would suggest. The long-awaited bifurcation between live (sports and news) and on-demand (entertainment) is gathering momentum.”

Netflix, HBO and Cable Giants Are Coming for Password Cheats

Password123: A coalition of media companies, including HBO and Netflix, are working on a plan to limit password sharing.

Password sharing by platform according to MoffettNathanson:
1) 
Netflix – 14%
2) 
Hulu – 11%
3) 
Amazon – 6%

Flashback: Cable TV’s Password-Sharing Crackdown Is Coming

Spectrum username had 30K simultaneous streams!

ESPN asked a group of 50 millennial sports fans if they shared passwords.  All 50 raised their hands!

# of simultaneous users that each service allows:
1) Netflix – 4
2) HBO – 3
3) DirecTV (Satelite) – 5

Ideas for reducing password sharing:
1) Limit concurrent streams
2) Force more frequent logins

Projected revenue loss due to password sharing (% change) according to Parks Associates:
1) 2017 – $3.5B
2) 2021 – $9.9B (↑ 183%)

Alternative take: Matthew Ball provides a smart use case for why password sharing may be driving higher revenue.

More #1: Love Is Fleeting, But Netflix Passwords Are Forever

More #2: Sharing your TV streaming passwords? Cable companies won’t stop you—yet

More #3: Disney fights streaming account sharing with help from cable industry

The Great Streaming Battle Is Here. No One Is Safe.

The big question: How much are customers willing to pay for streaming video services?

Average monthly streaming video subscription spend according to The Harris Poll (% change):
1) 
Current amount – $14
2) 
Willing to pay – $44 (↑ 215%)

Traditional pay-TV subscribers (% change) according to AllianceBernstein:
1) 
2014 – 100M
2) 
2022P – 78M (↓ 22%)

More #1: The Mining of Media (or The “Streaming Wars” are Just a Battle)

More #2: Where Do Niche Streamers Fit In a Sea of Services?

More #3: Everyone’s Wrong About the Streaming Wars

Roku Surpasses 10 Billion Streaming Hours in Q3, Beats Earnings Expectations

Key numbers from Roku’s Q3 earnings:
1) 1.8M
 active accounts added
2) 32.3M total active accounts
3) 79% YoY increase in advertising revenue
4) 66% YoY increase in streaming hours/account

Roku active accounts (YoY growth):
1) 2016-Q3 – 11.3M
2) 2017-Q3 – 16.7M (↑ 48%)
3) 2018-Q3 – 23.8M (↑ 43%)
4) 2019-Q3 – 32.3M (↑ 36%)

Roku advertising revenue (YoY growth):
1) 2016-Q3 – $22M
2) 2017-Q3 – $58M (↑ 158%)
3) 2018-Q3 – $100M (↑ 74%)
4) 2019-Q3 – $179M (↑ 79%)

Roku advertising revenue per account (YoY growth):
1) 2016-Q3 – $1.97
2) 2017-Q3 – $3.44 (↑ 75%)
3) 2018-Q3 – $4.21 (↑ 22%)
4) 2019-Q3 – $5.55 (↑ 32%)

Roku total streaming hours (YoY growth):
1) 2016-Q3 – 2.4B
2) 2017-Q3 – 4.8B (↑ 100%)
3) 2018-Q3 – 6.2B (↑ 29%)
4) 2019-Q3 – 10.3B (↑ 66%)

Roku streaming hours per account (YoY growth):
1) 2016-Q3 – 212
2) 2017-Q3 – 287 (↑ 35%)
3) 2018-Q3 – 261 (↓ 9%)
4) 2019-Q3 – 319 (↑ 22%)

Roku advertising revenue per streaming hour (YoY growth):
1) 2016-Q3 – $0.009
2) 2017-Q3 – $0.012 (↑ 29%)
3) 2018-Q3 – $0.016 (↑ 35%)
4) 2019-Q3 – $0.017 (↑ 8%)

Quote from Anthony Wood – CEO @ Roku:
“We think eventually all TV will be streamed”

More: Roku is hot, but it may need to sell if it wants to take over the TV ad business

Video: How Will Roku-dataxu Change Advertising?: Forrester’s O’Connell

US Connected TV Ad Spending Will Grow Nearly 40% in 2019

Connected TV ad spend (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 
2019P – $7B (↑ 38%)
2) 2020P – $9B (↑ 28%)
3) 2021P – $11B (↑ 22%)
4) 2022P – $12B (↑ 16%)
5) 2023P – $14B (↑ 13%)

Connected TV users (YoY growth):
1) 
2019P – 195.1M (↑ 5%)
2) 2020P – 201.7M (↑ 3%)
3) 2021P – 206.7M (↑ 2%)
4) 2022P – 210.7M (↑ 2%)
5) 2023P – 214.4M (↑ 2%)

Quick math on connected TV ad spend per user (YoY growth):
1) 
2019P – $35.38
2) 2020P – $44.02 (↑ 24%)
3) 2021P – $52.30 (↑ 19%)
4) 2022P – $59.27 (↑ 13%)
5) 2023P – $65.85 (↑ 11%)

Quote from Jeff Green – CEO @ The Trade Desk:
“There is nothing I’m more excited about, nothing more game-changing than what is happening in connected TV.”

More #1: Connected TV advertising to hit $7 billion this year

More #2: Why CTV Is The Trade Desk’s Biggest Focus Of 2020

More #3: 2 Of 3 Who Stream Now Watch TV Mostly By Streaming – But There’s A Catch

Facebook Earnings Soar as Zuckerberg Warns of ‘Tough Year’ Ahead Politically

Evergreen story: Facebook faces turmoil while it’s business keeps crushing it!

Facebook advertising revenue (YoY growth):
1) 
2015-Q3 – $4.3B
2) 
2016-Q3 – $6.8B (↑ 59%)
3) 2017-Q3 – $10.1B (↑ 49%)
4) 2018-Q3 – $13.5B (↑ 33%)
5) 2019-Q3 – $17.4B (↑ 28%)

Facebook advertising revenue per user in the U.S. and Canada (YoY growth):
1) 
2015-Q3 – $9.86
2) 
2016-Q3 – $15.08 (↑ 53%)
3) 2017-Q3 – $20.69 (↑ 37%)
4) 2018-Q3 – $27.11 (↑ 31%)
5) 2019-Q3 – $33.86 (↑ 25%)

Facebook daily active users in the U.S. & Canada (YoY growth):
1) 2015-Q3 – 167M
2) 
2016-Q3 – 178M (↑ 7%)
3) 2017-Q3 – 185M (↑ 4%)
4) 2018-Q3 – 185M (↑ 0%)
5) 2019-Q3 – 189M (↑ 2%)

Quote from Mark Zuckerberg – CEO @ Facebook:
“Over the next year of campaigns, we are going to be at the center of the debate… I expect this is going to be a very tough year.”

Video: Facebook’s Sandberg: Political Ads Are Important Part of the Dialogue

More: Facebook is gearing up for a year from hell in 2020, Mark Zuckerberg warns: ‘This is going to be a very tough year’

The One Where Apple Tried to Buy Its Way Into Hollywood

Apple is making a big move into the streaming wars with the November 1st launch of Apple TV+.

The Big Picture: Apple generated $13.7B in profit last quarter, but iPhone sales dropped 9%.  The iPhone is no longer a growth story, and the company is preparing for a future driven by services and/or subscription revenue.

Key details for Apple TV+:
1) 
No ads
2) Available in 100+ countries
3) $4.99 per month after free trial
4) $6B+ in original content spend
5) 9 original shows
6) No 3rd party content

Apple’s revenue from services (YoY growth):
1) 
2016 – $24.3B
2) 
2017 – $30.0B (↑ 23%)
3) 2018 – $37.2B (↑ 24%)
4) 2020P – $48.6B

Quick math on the potential opportunity for Apple TV+:
1) Global Apple customers – ≈ 900M
2) Conversion rate – 10%
3) The potential customer base for Apple TV+ – 90M
4) Monthly subscription cost – $10
5)
 Revenue/month – $900M
6) Revenue/year – $10.8B

More #1: Apple Plays the Underdog in Streaming Wars

More #2: Apple TV Plus Chiefs on Building the Ambitious Video Venture From Scratch

More #3: Inside Apple’s High-Flying Bid to Become a Streaming Giant