Sinclair Joins NextGen TV’s Pearl Group 

Key details for Pearl TV:
1) 
Founded in 2014
2) 9 broadcast station groups
3) 750 stations in 184 markets
4) 49 of the top 50 markets reaching 85% of the TV viewing audience
5) 20 TV models releasing this year from Sony, Samsung, and LG

Pearl TV members include:
1) Cox Media Group
2) The E. W. Scripps Company
3) Graham Media Group
4) Gray Television Inc.
5) Hearst Television
6) Meredith Local Media Group.
7) Nexstar Media Group
8) Sinclair Broadcast Group
9) TEGNA

Quote from Chris Ripley – CEO @ Sinclair Broadcast Group:
“Since the rubber is really going to hit the road here this year, it just made sense to join Pearl and speak … with one industry voice. So, I think it will speed up the rollout and the ultimate adoption of NextGen TV.”

Local video ad spend (YoY growth) according to BIA Advisory Services:
1) 
2018 – $29.8B
2) 
2019P – $30.3B (↑ 2%)
3) 2020P – $33.0B (↑ 9%)
4) 2021P – $32.4B (↓ 2%)
5) 2022P – $34.7B (↑ 7%)
6) 2023P – $34.6B (↓ 0%)
7) 2024P – $37.1B (↑ 7%)

More #1: Nexstar: Bigger Scale, More IP Opportunities

More #2: Coming Soon: TV on Your Phone, No Data Plan Required

Roku predicts half of US homes will have cut the cord and dropped cable by 2024

Key numbers from Roku’s Q4 earnings:
1) 9.8M
 active accounts added in 2019 (4.6M in Q4)
2) 36.9M total active accounts
3) 71% YoY increase in advertising revenue
4) 60% YoY increase in streaming hours
5) 1/3 of smart TVs sold in the U.S. are pre-loaded with Roku OS
6) 56M viewers for Roku channel

Roku active accounts (YoY growth):
1) 2016 – 13.4M
2) 2017 – 19.3M (↑ 44%)
3) 2018 – 27.1M (↑ 40%)
4) 2019 – 36.9M (↑ 36%)

Roku advertising revenue (YoY growth):
1) 2017 – $225M
2) 2018 – $417M (↑ 85%)
3) 2019 – $741M (↑ 78%)

Roku advertising revenue per account (YoY growth):
1) 2017 – $16.81
2) 2018 – $21.60 (↑ 28%)
3) 2019 – $27.34 (↑ 27%)

Roku total streaming hours (YoY growth):
1) 2017 – 15.9B
2) 2018 – 24.5B (↑ 54%)
3) 2019 – 40.3B (↑ 64%)

Roku streaming hours per account (YoY growth):
1) 2017 – 824
2) 2018 – 904 (↑ 10%)
3) 2019 – 1,092 (↑ 21%)

Roku advertising revenue per streaming hour (YoY growth):
1) 2017 – $0.014
2) 2018 – $0.017 (↑ 20%)
3) 2019 – $0.018 (↑ 8%)

More #1: ‘The Facebook of TV’: Roku rankles media companies as platform pushes The Roku Channel

More #2: Roku Built the Dominant Streaming Box. Now It’s Under Siege

More #3: How Billionaire Anthony Wood Quit His Netflix Job, Founded Roku—And Then Quadrupled His Fortune In The Past Year

Streaming TV explodes

Streaming share of TV viewing according to Nielsen:
1) 
2018-Q3 – 10%
2) 
2019-Q4 – 19%

Video streaming share by platform according to Nielsen:
1) 
Netflix – 31%
2) 
YouTube – 21%
3) 
Hulu – 12%
4) 
Amazon – 8%
5) 
Other – 28%

Number of paid streaming video services according to Nielsen:
1) 
Zero – 8%
2) 
One – 32%
3) 
Two – 30%
4) 
Three plus – 30%

Average time spent w/ video (YoY growth) according to Nielsen:
1) 2018-Q3 – 5h 24m
2) 
2019-Q3 – 5h 22m (↓ 1%)

Average time spent w/ video by screen (% of total):
1) Live TV  –  3h 56m (73%)
2) OTT/Connected TV – 0h 55m (17%)
3) Smartphone  – 0h 16m (5%)
4) Desktop/Laptop  – 0h 7m (2%)
5) Tablet  – 0h 8m (3%)

Average time spent w/ media (YoY growth):
1) 2018-Q3 – 10h 30m
2) 
2019-Q3 – 11h 54m (↑ 13%)

Daily hours of usage by age group:
1) 
18–34 – 10h 05m
2) 
35–49 – 11h 56m
3) 
50–64 – 13h 10m
4) 
65+  – 12h 48m
5) 
18+  – 11h 54m

More #1: Streaming Accounts for 19% of Total TV Viewing With Netflix Leading the Pack, Nielsen Says

More #2: Streaming Accounts For 19% Of Total Viewing, Netflix Accounts For A Third Of That

Why Spotify and a casino bought The Ringer and Barstool

The big news:  Spotify is buying podcast network The Ringer for an estimated $196M!

Key details for The Ringer:
1) Founded in 2016 by Bill Simmons
2) 90 employees
3) 30 different podcasts
4) 100M downloads per month
5) 3.33M downloads/show/month
6) HBO owned 10%

Flashback: For Bill Simmons’s the Ringer, Podcasting Is the Main Event

Top 10 podcasting apps by share according to Activate Consulting:
1) Apple Podcasts – 21%
2)
 Spotify – 19%
3)
 YouTube Music – 12%
4) Google Podcasts – 9%
5) iHeart Radio – 7%
6)
 Barstool Sports – 6%
7) Soundcloud – 6%
8)
 CastBox – 5%
9)
 NPR One – 4%
10)
 TuneIn – 3%

Monthly podcast listeners in U.S. (YoY growth):
1) 2013 – 32M
2) 2014 – 40M (↑ 25%)
3) 2015 – 46M (↑ 15%)
4) 2016 – 57M (↑ 24%)
5) 2017 – 65M (↑ 14%)
6) 2018 – 75M (↑ 15%)
7) 2019P – 88M (↑ 17%)
8) 2020P – 103M (↑ 17%)
9) 2021P – 120M (↑ 17%)
10) 2022P – 140M (↑ 17%)
11) 2023P – 164M (↑ 17%)

Podcast advertising revenue (YoY growth):
1) 2017 – $300M
2) 2018 – $400M (↑ 33%)
3) 2019P – $600M (↑ 50%)
4) 2020P – $800M (↑ 33%)
5) 2021P – $1.0B (↑ 25%)
6) 2022P – $1.2B (↑ 20%)
7) 2023P – $1.6B (↑ 33%)

Podcast advertising revenue/user (YoY growth):
1) 2017 – $4.62
2) 2018 – $5.33 (↑ 16%)
3) 2019P – $6.82 (↑ 28%)
4) 2020P – $7.77 (↑ 14%)
5) 2021P – $8.33 (↑ 7%)
6) 2022P – $8.57 (↑ 3%)
7) 2023P – $9.76 (↑ 14%)

Podcast: Spotify, The Ringer and the future of podcasts

More #1: Podcast Groups Aren’t Just About Podcasts

More #2: 20 Podcast Predictions for 2020 from Top Industry Leaders

Facebook’s decade of unstoppable growth

Facebook advertising revenue (YoY growth):
1) 
2015-Q4 – $5.6B
2) 
2016-Q4 – $8.6B (↑ 53%)
3) 2017-Q4 – $12.8B (↑ 48%)
4) 2018-Q4 – $16.6B (↑ 30%)
5) 2019-Q4 – $20.7B (↑ 25%)

Facebook advertising revenue (YoY growth):
1) 
2015 – $17.1B
2) 
2016 – $26.9B (↑ 57%)
3) 2017 – $39.9B (↑ 49%)
4) 2018 – $55.0B (↑ 38%)
5) 2019 – $69.7B (↑ 27%)

Quote from Mark Zuckerberg – CEO @ Facebook:
“We’re focused on communicating more clearly about what we stand for. One critique of our approach for much of the last decade is that because we wanted to be liked, we didn’t want to communicate our views as clearly, because we worried about offending people…. Our goal for the next decade isn’t to be liked, but understood. In order to be trusted, people need to know what we stand for.”

Facebook advertising revenue per user in the U.S. and Canada (YoY growth):
1) 
2015-Q4 – $12.89
2) 
2016-Q4 – $19.28 (↑ 50%)
3) 2017-Q4 – $26.26 (↑ 36%)
4) 2018-Q4 – $34.09 (↑ 30%)
5) 2019-Q4 – $40.50 (↑ 19%)

Facebook daily active users in the U.S. & Canada (YoY growth):
1) 2015-Q4 – 169M
2) 
2016-Q4 – 180M (↑ 7%)
3) 2017-Q4 – 184M (↑ 2%)
4) 2018-Q4 – 186M (↑ 1%)
5) 2019-Q4 – 190M (↑ 2%)

Wow: Rich Greenfield illustrates how far Facebook has grown in 10 years!

The source of Facebook advertising revenue in 2019 (% of total) according to Bloomberg:
1) Facebook – $50B (78%)
2) Instagram – ≈ $20B (22%)
3) Total – $70B

Podcast: What to Make of Facebook’s Earnings

YouTube Reveals Revenue for First Time: $15.1 Billion in 2019

The big reveal: For the first time, Google is breaking out advertising revenue from YouTube.

YouTube advertising revenue (YoY growth):
1) 2017 – $8.2B
2) 2018 – $11.2B (↑ 37%)
3) 2019 – $15.1B (↑ 36%)

YouTube users (YoY growth) according to Jon Erlichman:
1) 2017 – 1.5B
2) 2018 – 1.9B (↑ 27%)
3) 2019 – 2.0B (↑ 5%)

Quick math on YouTube advertising model:
1) $15B in 2019 ad revenue
2) 2B+ users
3) 203M hours of viewing/day
4) 74B hours of viewing/year
5) $0.20 in revenue per viewing hour
6) $7.57 in annual revenue per user

YouTube revenue per user (YoY growth):
1) 2017 – $5.43
2) 2018 – $5.87 (↑ 8%)
3) 2019 – $7.57 (↑ 29%)

The source of Google advertising revenue in 2019 (% of total):
1) Non-YouTube – $83B (85%)
2) YouTube – $15B (15%)
3) Total – $98B

Disney+ Hits 28.6 Million Paid Subscribers Since Launch

Disney+ added 26.5M subscribers since launching on November 12th, beating Wall Street estimates of 8M – 20M.

Total Disney streaming subscribers (% of total) as of February 3rd:
1) Hulu – 30.7M (46%)
2) Disney+ – 28.6M (43%)
3) ESPN+ – 7.6M (11%)
4) Total – 66.9M

The source of Disney+ sign-ups:
1) Disney direct – 50%
2) 
Other – 30%
3) 
Verizon promotion – 20%

Average monthly revenue per user (ARPU) for Disney+:
1) Retail – $6.99
2) 
Actual – $5.56 (21% discount)

Most watched content on Disney+ according to The Hollywood Reporter:
1) Disney Classics – 22%
2) Star Wars – 21%
3) Marvel – 15%
4) Pixar – 14%
5) Disney Channel – 9%
6) The Simpsons – 5%
7) Other – 14%

Video: Disney’s Kevin Mayer | Full interview | Code Media 2019

More #1: ‘The Mandalorian’ to Return in October, ‘The Falcon and the Winter Soldier’ to Premiere in August

More #2: 11 Lessons from the Success of Disney+

More #3: Disney Disturbs the Force: Pleasing Star Wars Fans Complicates Saga

President Trump, Michael Bloomberg Release Dueling Super Bowl Ads

Battleground: President Trump and Mayor Bloomberg will each spend $11M+ on 60 seconds worth of Super Bowl ad time.

Be smart #1: Even though both are running for President, they are targeting completely different audiences.  Mayor Bloomberg has to make it through a contested primary in which he is currently an underdog.  President Trump knows his target audience and can focus on November and the general election.

Key details on the potential target audience for President Trump:
1) 
U.S. 18+ population – 255M
2) 
General Election Target States – 14
3) 
2016 Turnout – 53.5M
4) 
Persuadable % – ≈ 10-20%
5) 
2016 Turnout + Persuadable – 10.7M
6) 
Share of U.S. 18+ population – 4%

Key details on the potential target audience for Mayor Bloomberg:
1) U.S. 18+ population – 255M
2) 
Super Tuesday States – 14
3) 
2016 Turnout – 11.7M
4) 
Persuadable % – ≈ 20-40%
5) 
2016 Turnout + Persuadable – 4.7M
6) 
Share of U.S. 18+ population – 2%

Be smart #2: Monday night kicks off the 2020 Presidential campaign with the Iowa caucus.  In 2016, 171K voters turned out on the Democrat side, accounting for ≈ 1 out of every 1,500 adults in the U.S.  Roughly 0.07% of viewers for tonight’s Super Bowl will have a major role in deciding who is on the ballot this November!

Fox adds commercial time to Super Bowl to accommodate more advertisers

Estimated cost per 30s spot by year (YoY change):
1) 2010 – $3.0M
2) 2011 – $3.1M (↑ 3%)
3) 2012 – $3.5M (↑ 13%)
4) 2013 – $4.0M (↑ 14%)
5) 2014 – $4.2M (↑ 5%)
6) 2015 – $4.4M (↑ 5%)
7) 2016 – $4.8M (↑ 9%)
8) 2017 – $5.0M (↑ 4%)
9) 2018- $5.2M (↑ 4%)
10) 2019 – $5.3M (↑ 2%)
11) 2020P – ≈ $5.6M (↑ 6%)

Super Bowl ad spend by year (YoY change) according to Kantar Media:
1) 
2015 (NBC) – $387M
2) 
2016 (CBS) – $414M (↑ 7%)
3) 2017 (Fox) – $498M (↑ 20%)
4) 2018 (NBC) – $411M (↓ 17%)
5) 2019 (CBS) – $412M (↑ 0%)

Minutes of ads per Super Bowl (# of spots) according to Kantar Media:
1) 2013 – 51:40 (102)
2) 2014 – 47:15 (96)
3) 2015 – 48:05 (82)
4) 2016 – 49:30 (83)
5) 2017 – 51:30 (97)
6) 2018 – 51:20 (86)
7) 2019 – 49:31 (91)

Ad spot length during 2019 Super Bowl:
1) 30s – 51%
2) 1m+ – 28%
3) 15s – 11%
4) Other – 10%

The best part of the Super Bowl according to Civic Science:
1) Game – 40%
2) Ads – 32%
3) Halftime show – 16%
4) Food – 12%

More #1: Super Bowl LIV: Tracking every ad for 2020’s big game

More #2: Fox Sells Out of Super Bowl Ad Time Months Ahead of Event

More #3: Super Bowl Will Have Fewer, Longer Ad Breaks

The Super Bowl Is Still TV’s Ballgame, With Streaming Far Behind

Streaming viewership by year (YoY change) according to Sports Media Watch:
1) 2012 – 346K
2)
 2013 – 508K (↑ 47%)
3) 2014 – 531K (↑ 5%)
4) 2015 – 973K (↑ 83%)
5) 2016 – 1.4M (↑ 44%)
6) 2017 – 1.7M (↑ 21%)
7) 2018 – 2.0M (↑ 19%)
8) 2019 – 2.6M (↑ 29%)

Streaming share of total viewership by year:
1) 2012 – 0.3%
2) 2013 – 0.5%
3)
 2014 – 0.5%
4) 2015 – 0.9%
5) 2016 – 1.3%
6) 2017 – 1.5%
7) 2018 – 1.9%
8)
 2019 – 2.6%

Our prediction: Total streaming grows 40% YoY (3.6M), accounting for 3.5% of total viewership.