Hollywood-backed Quibi thinks you’ll pay for its video bites

Key details for Quibi:
1) 
Quibi is short for “quick bites”
2) Launching April 6th
3) The target audience is 25-35-year-olds
4) $1.4B in capital raised
5) 230 employees

Key details for Quibi revenue model:
1) $5/month w/ ads; $8/month without ads
2) 1 pre-roll ad per episode (<5m video = 10s ad; 5-10m video = 15s ad)
3) 2.5m of advertising per hour
4) 20M subscribers by 2024
5) 75% of users will have ad-supported tier
6) They are seeking $15-25M upfront advertising commitments from companies such as P&G
7) $150M+ in upfront ad commitments

Quick math on Quibi advertising:
1) 20m paid users by 2024
2) 50% w/ ads
3) 15m paid users w/ ads
4) 2.5m of advertising per hour
5) $35 CPM for 15s ad
6) 10 15s spots/hour
7) $0.40 in ad revenue/hour
8) $665M revenue from advertising
9) $44.33/user/year in ad revenue
10) $3.69/user/month in ad revenue
11) 127 hours/year of viewing w/ ads/user
12) 11 hours/month of viewing w/ ads/user

Key details for Quibi content:
1) 7-10m 
per episode
2) 7K pieces of content at launch
3) 25+ episodes added daily
4) $100K/minute average development cost w/ a maximum of $6M/hour

Worth the time: Quibi is Offering Something Impressive, But Does Anyone Want It? h/t: Lucas Quagliata (a SOTS reader)

Video: Quibi streaming mobile video service raises $400 million ahead of launch

More: Quibi unveils “Turnstyle,” its flagship mobile video format

NBCUniversal Aims to Merge TV and Digital Ad Buying With New Tech

The big news: NBCUniversal announced the One Platform, which is meant to offer a single platform to buy across TV and digital.

Quote from Mark Marshall – President of Advertising Sales @ NBCUniversal:
“The idea of demo-based buying started in 1962… To say that we are still transacting TV in the same way today seems crazy.”

Key details for the One Platform:
1) 
Initial launch in 2020 w/ single measurement dashboard
2) Three years to complete
3) 300+ ad sales engineering and platform employees are working on it

TV share of video advertising according to eMarketer:
1) 
2019P – 66%
2) 
2020P – 63%
3) 
2021P – 59%
4) 
2022P – 56%
5) 
2023P – 54%

Flashback #1: Inside The Agency Turf War Over Connected TV

What happens next: TV Buyers are being rebranded as video investment teams, and digital buyers are going to school on TV metrics.

The future: The term “digital buyer” and “TV buyer” will go away, and there will just be “video buyers.” Everyone cannot be great at everything, so some buyers will be stronger in TV or digital, but the future is cross screen.

Who wins: The winners will be whichever side learns the other side’s piece first and integrates it into a holistic video offering.

Flashback #2: Understanding Campaign Audiences Across TV + Digital

Unique audience for 18-49 demo according to Nielsen:
1) TV-only – 59%
2) Cross screen – 27%
3) Digital-only – 14%

More #1: NBCUniversal’s Ryan McConville Is De-Fragmenting The Future Of TV

More #2: Let’s get back to the human at the center of TV advertising

More #3: TV Is The Metaphor For Video’s Future

Peak TV Update: Scripted Originals Top 500 in 2019, FX Says

Original scripted shows by year (% change YoY):
1) 2009 – 210
2) 2010 – 216 (↑ 3%)
3) 2011 – 266 (↑ 23%)
4) 2012 – 288 (↑ 8%)
5) 2013 – 349 (↑ 21%)
6) 2014 – 389 (↑ 11%)
7) 2015 – 422 (↑ 8%)
8) 2016 – 455 (↑ 8%)
9) 2017 – 487 (↑ 7%)
10) 2018 – 495 (↑ 2%)
11) 2019 – 532 (↑ 7%)

Original shows/movies released by Netflix in the U.S. (YoY growth):
1) 
2018 – 240
2) 
2019 – 371 (↑ 55%)

Video: What budget?  TV costs hit an all-time high.

More #1: Record number of original TV shows created in 2019

More #2: ‘It’s an Explosion’: Inside the Rising Costs of Making a Scripted TV Series

More #3: Is this the year that TV broke TV? The great fragmentation and why peak TV didn’t die

The One Where ‘Friends’ Disappears From Streaming (for Now)

The new decade brings a new streaming home for Friends as the show moves from Netflix to HBO Max.  One minor detail is that HBO Max does not launch until May!

Key details for Friends:
1) 10 
seasons (1994-2004)
2) 236 episodes
3) 29M viewers at peak (Season 2)

Average viewers by season (YoY growth):
1) 
1994–95 – 24M
2) 
1995–96 – 29M (↑ 21%)
3) 1996–97 – 25M (↓ 15%)
4) 1997–98 – 24M (↓ 4%)
5) 1998–99 – 24M (↓ 2%)
6) 1999–00 – 21M (↓ 12%)
7) 2000–01 – 20M (↓ 2%)
8) 2001–02 – 25M (↑ 21%)
9) 2002–03 – 22M (↓ 11%)
10) 2003–04 – 23M (↑ 5%)

Flashback: ‘Friends’ to Move to HBO Max, WarnerMedia’s New Streaming Service

Comparison of annual deal size between Netflix and Warner:
1) Netflix deal #1 (2014–18) –  $30M
2) Netflix deal #2 (2019) – $80M
3) HBO Max deal #1 (2020-24) – $85M

Quick math #1 for Friends and HBO Max:
1) Domestic subscriber target – 75M
2) The annual cost to license Friends – $85M
3) HBO Max would be paying $0.09 per month for each domestic subscriber to license the show.

Quick math #2 for Friends and HBO Max:
1) The annual cost to license Friends – $85M
2) # of seasons – 10
3) # of episodes – 236
4) $/season to license – $8.5M
5) $/episode to license – $360K

That is brand new information!  A reunion may be in the works, according to The Hollywood Reporter.

Video: Matt LeBlanc Looks Back at ‘Friends’ and Playing Joey For 12 Years

More #1: ‘Friends’ Turns 25: Ranking Its 25 Best Episodes

More #2: ‘Friends’ Creators Reveal Surprises, Regrets, Reactions to HBO Max Move Link (09/14/2019)

Apple Deal Returns Former HBO Boss Richard Plepler to Spotlight

Big news: Apple signed Richard Plepler’s new production company (Eden Productions) to a 5-year deal.

Key details for Richard Plepler:
1) 27 
years at HBO (1992-2017)
2) CEO since 2013
3) HBO won 160 Emmys while he was CEO

Hit shows released by HBO with Richard Plepler include:
1) 
Sex and the City
2) The Sopranos
3) Curb Your Enthusiasm
4) Game of Thrones
5) Veep

More #1: Apple bets big on Tinseltown’s top talent

More #2: Apple just put itself in position to be the next HBO

More #3: Can Apple Become the Google of Television?

FreeWheel: 2019-Q3 U.S. video marketplace report

Ad view growth, according to FreeWheel:
1) 
Video ad views (all) - ↑ 46%
2) 
Video ad views (audience targeted) – ↑ 34%

Quick math on ad load w/ premium video:
1) 
Video views – ↑ 37%
2) 
Video ad views – ↑ 46%
3) 
Video ad load – ↑ 7%

Share by format:
1) Full episodes (>5m) - 57%
2) Live – 36%
3) Clips (<5m) – 7%

YoY growth by format:
1) Live – ↑ 100%
2) Full episodes (>5m) – ↑ 25%
3) Clips (<5m) –  4%

Share by device:
1) 
CTV/OTT – 56%
2) 
Mobile – 14%
3) 
STB VOD – 15%
4) 
Desktop – 15%

YoY growth by device:
1) 
CTV/OTT – ↑ 110%
2) 
Mobile – ↑ 16%
3) STB VOD – ↑ 13%
4) 
Desktop – ↑ 7%

Average video ad pod length (YoY change):
1) 
2018-Q3 – 95s
2) 
2019-Q3 – 107s (↑ 13%)

Three predictions for video advertising in 2020

1) CTV will be the battleground for control of video advertising dollars – TV buyers are rebranding themselves as video investment teams, and digital buyers believe that CTV should fall under them.  Control of the video ad budget is up for grabs, which will be key when linear TV falls below 50% of video spend in the next 4-6 years.

2) Political will set the pace for cross screen video advertising – The 2020 political video ad market will be $5.8B accounting for ≈ 4-5%  of the entire U.S. market.  Politics has consistently led the way with regards to audience targeting, and we believe that cross screen planning/buying will be added to the mix in 2020.

3) Ad-supported streaming will emerge as a sustainable business model – The success of platforms such as Tubi, Pluto TV, and the Roku Channel will continue in 2020 along with new entrants such as NBCUniversal’s Peacock.  These platforms are popular with advertisers because they combine the reach/quality of linear TV with the targeting/measurement of digital.  Ad-supported streaming will carry a lower ad load compared to linear TV, which will lead to an overall drop in TV ad impressions.

A few other annual predictions that are worth your time:
1) 
What TV Advertising’s Top Headlines Mean For Marketers In 2020
2) Our own sports media prognosticator serves up his best predictions for 2020
3) Podcast: Axios media reporter Sara Fischer on what 2020 holds for local news, big tech and the streaming wars
4) Cynopsis: Media Tech Update: Predictions for 2020
5) The Future of Local TV Advertising in 2020

Finally, a few fun reads while you are waiting for your Uber/Lyft tonight:
1) First, the Smartphone Changed. Then, Over a Decade, It Changed Us.
2) The 25 Best Ads of 2019
3) YouTube Reveals Top 10 Most-Viewed Ads of 2019

Grading our 2019 predictions

Since it’s always fun to publically grade last year’s NYE resolutions, we decided to do the same with our predictions…

1) OTT/CTV will converge TV/digital skills – For the most part, new digital video formats (pre-roll, social, etc.) have stayed in the digital skills camp.  OTT/CTV is the first format that is being claimed by both the TV and digital sides, even if both are attacking from different angles (demo vs. audiences, etc.).  Both sides see a huge market and will continue to claim it belongs in their media plan.  Another reason why brands, agencies, and networks need to overcome silos with cross screen teams.

Verdict: Silios on both the buy and sell-side persist, but this is still a mega trend and one to watch in the years ahead.

2) Local will lead the way in advanced TV measurement – Breaking Nielsen’s national panel down into 210 individual markets causes major issues on the sampling side, and those involved in local marketing are incentivized to adopt alternative currencies faster than national advertisers.  This will have the side benefit of ushering in audience buying since these would allow for custom audiences.  This trend has already started with announcements from groups like Scripps and Gray.

Verdict: Slow out of the gate.  There was significant momentum late in the year, and we anticipate that the 2020 election will set the standard in advanced TV.

3) Disney+ will be a success – The Disney catalog of content will provide a compelling reason for subscriber adoption, and this service will get traction.  However, Wall Street may take a different view of Netflix’s 59M+ domestic subscribers are used as a benchmark.

Verdict: This was not a tough one to see coming, but the overall execution from Disney has been impressive to watch.

Thank You!!!

This year will be hard to top, and we owe it all to our friends and family in the Screens community!

Quick math on SOTS growth in 2019:
1) 53 
editions
2) 41,296 words
3) Estimated reading time: 207 minutes
4) 210 blog posts at StateOfTheScreens.com
5) ↑ 202% YoY growth in the size of the community
6) We now have subscribers from 20+ different countries!

Top ten posts from 2019:
1) Disney announces $12.99 bundle for Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+
2) Trump’s general election brawl to drive record advertising
3) Martin Scorsese’s biggest opening weekend ever was on Netflix — but there’s a catch
4) Streaming Video Will Soon Look Like the Bad Old Days of TV
5) The Streaming Video-on-Demand War Is Going to Get Bloody
6) We still don’t know what’s in Apple’s streaming service, how much it will cost, or why we should…
7) Amazon is allowing ad-tech companies to sell ads in streaming TV apps, and marketers see it as a sign that the e-commerce giant is becoming less of a walled garden
8) It’s time for impressions to be the currency of local broadcast TV
9) TV’s most expensive commercials for the 2019-’20 season
10) Tubi Tops 20M Monthly Viewers In AVOD Race For Audience, Ads

How to Watch Christmas Specials and Movies on TV: 2019 Holiday Viewing Guide

Boom: TV Guide has a breakdown of where to watch your favorite shows across 15 networks and streaming services!

Key details for Hallmark’s Countdown to Christmas:
1) 
Hallmark started airing Christmas movies in 2002
2) They will make 103 movies this year, and 43 (41%) are about Christmas
3) The channel goes 24/7 Christmas between October and January
4) 72M people watched Christmas programming on the Hallmark Channel in 2018
5) The Hallmark Channel is #1 in both women (18-49) and (25-54) in Q4

No joke: The only thing that can get Granny Screens to clear old reruns of Matlock off of the DVR is Hallmark’s Countdown to Christmas so these numbers are no surprise and why Santa Screens may be leaving this in her stocking!

Hallmark Christmas movies per year (YoY change):
1) 2009 – 8
2) 2010 – 12 (↑ 50%)
3) 2011 – 12 ( 0%)
4) 2012 – 12 ( 0%)
5) 2013 – 12 ( 0%)
6) 2014 – 18 ( 50%)
7) 2015 – 21 ( 17%)
8) 2016 – 28 ( 33%)
9) 2017 – 34 ( 21%)
10) 2018 – 37 ( 9%)
11) 2019 – 40 ( 8%)

Netflix Christmas movies per year (YoY change):
1) 2014 – 1
2) 2015 – ( 0%)
3) 2016 – ( 100%)
4) 2017 – ( 150%)
5) 2018 – 10 ( 100%)
6) 2019 – 17 ( 70%)

Video: Why Hallmark Bet Right on its ‘Countdown to Christmas’ Programming

More #1: This (Jewish) Couple Has Written 30 Christmas Movies — and They’re Not Alone

More #2: The Most Wonderful Time of the Year: Netflix and Disney Battle Hallmark for Christmas Viewers

More #3: War Over Christmas As Lifetime Trespasses On Hallmark Turf