Voice Assistant Use Reaches Critical Mass

A recent report from eMarketer estimates that 78M individuals in the U.S. will use a smart speaker this year.

U.S. smart speaker users by year (YoY growth):
1) 
2017 – 46M
2) 
2018 – 66M (↑ 43%)
3) 2019P – 78M (↑ 18%)
4) 2020P – 85M (↑ 9%)
5) 2021P – 89M (↑ 5%)

Top smart speaker tasks according to Social Lens Research:
1) Getting directions
2) Making phone calls
3) Listening to music
4) Finding nearby stores

In the market?  The team at Axios has you covered with this feature comparison.

More #1: Facebook Approached Netflix, Disney to Support TV Chat Device

More #2: Smart speaker adoption in US reaches 66M units, with Amazon leading

Tiny Roku Fends Off Amazon and Thrives by Selling Ads

Key numbers from Roku’s Q2 earnings:
1) 1.4M 
active accounts added in Q2
2) 30.5M total active accounts
3) 86% YoY increase in advertising revenue

Share of U.S. streaming box/stick sales in 2019-Q1 according to Strategy Analytics:
1) Roku – 39%
2) Amazon – 28%
3) Apple – 16%
4) Google – 13%
5) Other – 4%

Share of U.S. smart-TV OS sales in 2019-Q1 according to Strategy Analytics:
1) Roku – 33%
2) Samsung – 23%
3) Vizio – 16%
4) LG – 12%
5) Google – 9%
6)
 Amazon – 2%
7)
 Other – 5%

Market capitalization by company according to FactSet:
1) 
Apple – $900B
2) 
Amazon – $887B
3) 
Alphabet – $815B
4) 
Roku – $12B

Roku active accounts by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 
2017-Q2 – 15.1M
2) 
2018-Q2 – 22.0M (↑ 46%)
3) 2019-Q2 – 30.5M (↑ 39%)

Roku advertising revenue by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 2017-Q2 – $46M
2) 
2018-Q2 – $90M (↑ 96%)
3) 2019-Q2 – $168M (↑ 86%)

Roku advertising revenue per account by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 2017-Q2 – $3.05
2) 
2018-Q2 – $4.10 (↑ 35%)
3) 2019-Q2 – $5.50 (↑ 34%)

Roku total streaming hours by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 
2017-Q2 – 3.5B
2) 
2018-Q2 – 5.5B (↑ 57%)
3) 2019-Q2 – 9.4B (↑ 71%)

Roku streaming hours per account by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 2017-Q2 – 232
2) 
2018-Q2 – 250 (↑ 8%)
3) 2019-Q2 – 308 (↑ 23%)

Wow: The average Roku household is streaming 19 hours more per month than last year!

Roku advertising revenue per hour streamed by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 2017-Q2 – $0.013
2) 
2018-Q2 – $0.016 (↑ 25%)
3) 2019-Q2 – $0.018 (↑ 9%)

More #1: 73% of All Roku Sales Comes From Amazon, Best Buy, & Walmart

More #2: Roku expands its free, live TV selection with 5 more channels, including fubo’s Sports Network

More #3: Inside Roku’s Enormous Bet On AVOD

Deeper Dive—YouTube TV, Hulu could change the cord-cutting story if they wanted

QoQ change in pay-TV subscribers according to Leichtman Research Group and MoffettNathanson:
1) 
Traditional pay-TV – ↓ 1.4M
2) 
Streaming pay-TV – ↑ 404K
3) 
Total pay-TV – ↓ 1.0M

QoQ change in traditional pay-TV subscribers:
1) 
AT&T – ↓ 778K
2) 
Comcast – ↓ 224K
3) 
Charter – ↓ 141K
4) 
Dish – ↓ 79K

Flashback: The fight for the bundle is the war for the future of TV

Wow: At one point, Time Warner had 90K different pricing points in use for its pay-TV offering!

More #1: The Problem With Today’s “TV Is Dead” Study

More #2: AT&T is losing TV subscribers faster than its rivals, but cord-cutting is hitting the entire pay-TV industry hard

More #3: If the Streaming Wars will be decided based on number of video services, AT&T might have just won it

Viacom-CBS Deal Drama Was Worthy of the Fall Lineup

The big news: CBS and Viacom have agreed to merge (again) in a deal that values the new company at $30B.

Key details for ViacomCBS:
1) 140K episodes of premium TV content
2) 3.6K film titles
3) 15% share of prime-time viewing
4) $16/subscriber/month from pay-TV providers
5) 4M subscribers for CBS All Access
6) 4M subscribers for Showtime OTT
7) 18M monthly users for PlutoTV

Market capitalization by company according to FactSet:
1) 
AT&T – $252B
2) 
Walt Disney – $245B
3) 
Comcast – $193B
4) 
Netflix – $136B
5) 
ViacomCBS – $30B

Back to the future: These companies have split and merged multiple times.

ViacomCBS will include content providers such as:
1) 
CBS Television
2) CBS Networks
3) CBS Sports
4) MTV
5) BET
6) Comedy Central
7) Nickelodeon
8) Paramount Pictures
9) Showtime
10) Smithsonian

Share of prime-time viewers:
1) 
Comcast – 18%
2) 
ViacomCBS – 15%
3) 
Walt Disney – 14%
4) 
Discovery – 11%
5) 
Fox – 9%
6) 
AT&T – 7%
7) 
Other – 26%

Per-subscriber fees:
1) Walt Disney – $22
2) 
ViacomCBS – $16
3) 
AT&T – $13
4) 
Comcast – $7
5) 
Fox – $7
6) 
Discovery – $4

Video: Watch the full interview with the newly formed ViacomCBS CEO Robert Bakish

More #1: Why Viacom Fell (And Why It Can Come Back)

More #2: CBS and Viacom Reunite in Deal That Marks Ascendance of Shari Redstone

More #3: M&A experts break down what Viacom and CBS could buy next, from ad-tech to James Bond

The Nielsen Local Watch Report (August 2019)

Share of households with connected-TV according to Nielsen:
1) 
2017 – 51%
2) 
2018 – 59%
3) 
2019 – 65%

Monthly reach by year (% of adults):
1) 
2017 – 95.9M (40%)
2) 2018 – 115.1M (48%)
3) 2019 – 134.2M (56%)

Monthly reach by age group:
1) 
18-34 – 64%
2) 
25-54 – 65%
3) 
55+ – 42%

Streamers vs. non-streamers:
1) Age – 50 vs. 62
2) Income – $69K vs. $45K
3) College education – 43% vs. 31%

Daily time spent w/ video:
1) 
Non-Streamer – 5h 31m
2) 
Streamer – 4h 28m

Facebook goes after Amazon, Hulu with ad-free video subscription channels

Facebook is launching a video subscription service that will put them into direct competition with Amazon and Roku.

Initial content partners for Facebook video subscriptions:
1) 
Tastemade Plus
2) BritboxTV
3) CollegeHumor Dropout
4) MotorTrend

Each subscription will cost between $2.99 and $6.99 per month.

Facebook also released new numbers for Watch including:
1) 
Viewers/month – 720M
2) 
Viewers/day – 140M

BTW: Facebook counts a view once a user watches 60 consecutive seconds of content.

Video: Facebook Watch promo video for the upcoming originals.

Flashback #1: Roku Starts Selling Streaming Services, Including New Epix Service, via the Roku Channel

Flashback #2: The Road to À La Carte Television

More #1: Facebook Tests Selling Video Subscriptions in Watch

More #2: How Facebook competes for TV, video ad budgets

More #3: Facebook Watch Draws More Advertisers—Gradually

How TV Tuned In More Ad Dollars: Direct Response and Digital Doubts

Mo money: The big five broadcast networks grew their upfront commitments by 5%+ YoY.

Upfront ad spend by year for big five broadcast networks (YoY growth) according to Variety:
1) 2010-11 – $8.1B
2) 2011-12 – $8.8B (↑ 9%)
3) 2012-13 – $8.8B (↑ 0%)
4) 2013-14 – $8.6B (↓ 2%)
5) 2014-15 – $8.2B (↓ 5%)
6) 2015-16 – $8.0B (↓ 2%)
7) 2016-17 – $8.4B (↑ 5%)
8) 2017-18 – $8.8B (↑ 4%)
9) 2018-19 – $9.1B (↑ 4%)
10) 2019-20 – $9.6B (↑ 5%)

Upfront commitment by network (YoY growth):
1) 
NBC – $3.2B (↑ 8%)
2) CBS – $2.4B (↑ 5%)
3) ABC – $2.0B (↑ 22%)
4) Fox – $1.6B (↑ 8%)
5) The CW – $593M (↑ 5%)

FYI: C3 ratings were down 11% last year…

CPM change by network:
1) 
CBS – ↑ 14%
2) 
ABC – ↑ 14%
3) 
The CW – ↑ 14%
4) 
NBC – ↑ 13%
5) 
Fox – ↑ 12%

Estimate for CPM change (May 2019) according to Mediapost:
1) 
Networks – ↑ 15% – 20%
2) 
Media Buyers – ↑ 12% – 13%

The bottom line for upfront changes YoY:
1) 
Total spend – ↑ 5%
2) Ratings – ↓ 11%
3) AVG CPM $ – ↑ 12%+

Flashback: As TV Industry’s $20 Billion Week Starts, Signs That Streaming Isn’t King Yet

Upfront ad spend by year (% growth YoY) according to eMarketer:
1) 2008-09 – $16.8B (↑ 1%)
2) 2009-10 – $14.7B (↓ 13%)
3) 2010-11 – $16.6B (↑ 13%)
4) 2011-12 – $17.9B (↑ 8%)
5) 2012-13 – $18.7B (↑ 4%)
6) 2013-14 – $19.2B (↑ 3%)
7) 2014-15 – $18.4B (↓ 4%)
8) 2015-16 – $17.8B (↓ 3%)
9) 2016-17 – $18.6B (↑ 5%)
10) 2017-18 – $19.7B (↑ 6%)
11) 2018-19 – $20.8B (↑ 5%)
12) 2019-20 – $21.3B (↑ 2%)
13) 2020-21 – $21.6B (↑ 2%)

More #1: Traditional TV Ad Sales Aren’t Bad Even Amid Cord-Cutting

More #2: TV’s Upfront Market May Be More Complex Than Networks Expected

Disney announces $12.99 bundle for Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+ 

New bundle: Disney will offer a package that includes Disney+, ESPN+, and Hulu (w/ ads) for $12.99/month.

Retail price for each service as a standalone.
1) 
Disney+ – $7
2) 
ESPN+ – $5
3) 
Hulu (w/ ads) – $6
4) Total – $18

This bundle would work out to a 28% discount versus purchasing all three separately.

The big question #1: Has the great “rebundling” already began?

The big question #2: What about ads?

Disney announced that digital ad inventory for all of its TV content would be available programmatically by this fall through the Trade Desk.

Key details for Disney ad announcement:
1) Includes inventory from 11K shows and 10K lives sports events
2) Entire Disney ad portfolio reaches 275M per month
3) Digital inventory adds 29% to total reach
4) Monthly reach is 11% greater than Google and 30% higher than Facebook

BTW: Disney’s future streaming content is crushing it at the box office with The Lion King becoming the latest to pass $1B.

Disney share of the domestic box office by year:
1) 2010 – 14%
2) 
2011 – 12%
3) 
2012 – 14%
4) 
2013 – 16%
5) 
2014 – 16%
6) 
2015 – 21%
7) 
2016 – 26%
8) 
2017 – 22%
9) 
2018 – 26%
10) 
2019 – 35%

Video: Disney announces streaming bundle to compete with Netflix

Flashback #1: Disney and the Future of TV

Flashback #2: Nine Reasons Why Disney+ Will Succeed (And Why Four Criticisms are Overhyped)

Amazon is allowing ad-tech companies to sell ads in streaming TV apps, and marketers see it as a sign that the e-commerce giant is becoming less of a walled garden

The big news: Amazon will allow third-party ad-tech marketplaces such as the TradeDesk and DataXu to access inventory from Fire TV apps.

HH users by CTV platform:
1) 
Amazon Fire TV – 34M
2) 
Roku – 29M

Amazon advertising revenue by year according to eMarketer (YoY growth):
1) 
2017 – $3.3B (↑ 186%)
2) 2018 – $7.4B (↑ 123%)
3) 2019P – $11.3B (↑ 53%)
4) 2020P – $15.0B (↑ 33%)
5) 2021P – $19.2B (↑ 28%)

FYI: Amazon recently had 190 open advertising positions in New York alone!

More #1: Amazon is turning advertising into its next huge business — here’s how

More #2: YouTube is finally on Amazon Fire TV and Chromecast supports Prime Video after Google and Amazon ended their streaming war

More #3: The making of Amazon Prime, the internet’s most successful and devastating membership program

A TV Maverick Is Going All-In on a New Wireless Bet

The big news: The #3 and #4 mobile carriers (T-Mobile and Sprint) are merging to take on Verizon and AT&T.  The Justice Department had a few requirements before approving the deal which included selling Sprints pre-paid business (Boost) to Dish Networks.

What dish is getting:
1) 9M pre-paid wireless subscribers from Sprint
2) 7 years of access to T-Mobile’s network while they build out their own

Wireless subscribers by carrier prior to merger:
1) AT&T – 160M
2) Verizon – 156M
3) T-Mobile/Sprint – 138M

Industry average monthly revenue per subscriber:
1) 2014 – $60.00
2) 2018 – $46.00
3) 2019 – $47.50

More #1: Dish chairman: We could have first 5G city up by late 2020

More #2: The lowdown on 5G in mid-2019: where it’s at with AT&T, Sprint, Verizon and T-Mobile

More #3: We Tested 5G Across America. It’s Crazy Fast—and a Hot Mess