The Four(ish) Horsemen of Algo TV

Setting the table: TV is changing fast. We’re leaving the channel guide behind and moving toward feeds powered by algorithms.

Five big questions re: algo TV:
1) What is Algo TV, and why should I care?
2) How does Algo TV work?
3) Who are the four(ish) horsemen of Algo TV?
4) How do you know whether a streaming service has Algo TV?
5) Who else is playing the Algo TV game?

What is Algo TV, and why should I care?

Quick answer: It’s when platforms use smart tech (algorithms) to suggest what you should watch next. It matters because there’s too much to watch — Algo TV picks what’s best for you.

The Screens family: I checked what Netflix shows my family. Out of 24 shows (6 each), only 2 were the same. 91% of our feed is unique to us. Netflix has over 7K shows. Their algorithm picked the top 0.08% for each person.

Mr. Screen’s Crystal Ball: Soon, everyone will have a “channel” just for them, powered by AI and custom content.

How does Algo TV work?

Quote from Doug Shapiro - Former Chief Strategy Officer @ Turner Broadcasting:
“Recommendation algorithms are based on two primary types of models: collaborative filtering and content models. In the former, the algorithm recommends content or products based on what other people have chosen. In the latter, recommendations are based on certain attributes of the content or products themselves.”

Video: Why Netflix’s Algorithm Is So Binge-Worthy

Keep in mind: These systems also power ad targeting. (More on this soon.)

Who are the four(ish) horsemen of Algo TV?

Criteria used:
1) Big-screen TV content
2) Personalized feeds for each user

The four(ish) horsemen of Algo TV:
1) YouTube
2) Netflix
3) TikTok
4) Spotify
5) Facebook/Instagram

Bottom line: As you can see from my chart, I place more value on having Algo TV than TV content.  Put another way.  User-generated content is quickly becoming a substitute for “premium content.”

Quote from Doug Shapiro - Former Chief Strategy Officer @ Turner Broadcasting:
“Whenever someone chooses one option over another for a similar use case and need state, it reveals that they implicitly considered that choice higher quality. When you slump down on the couch after a long day and scroll through Reels for 20 minutes rather than pick up the remote that’s an arm’s length away, you’re revealing that Reels is higher quality than anything on Netflix (or Disney+, Hulu, Max, Amazon Prime, etc.), at least in that context.”

Framework: I have grouped these companies into three groups.

Group #1: Head of the class

1) YouTube (2008) - It is hard to argue with ranking them #1.  They have the largest share of TV time, and their recommendation engine has been refined over 17 years.

2) Netflix (2000) - The leader on the “premium” content side with 25 years of learning baked into their recommendation engine.

Group #2: Algo TV only
3) TikTok (2016) - Working under the assumption that the US government does not ban them, I see their (real) arrival on TVs as imminent.  TikTok was born as a content recommendation company, and its algorithm is the best.

4) Spotify (2015) - Not a traditional TV company, to say the least.  I believe video podcasts are the next generation of cable news, and Spotify has a seat at that table with YouTube and potentially one other.

Flashback: TikTok’s Still Trending (SOTS #271)

5) Facebook/Instagram (2009) - This pick is the furthest out of left field for me.  Facebook has tried and failed with past TV efforts and is now in full public retreat.  On the other hand, they own a massive amount of our video attention and have a world-class algorithm.  I also believe they are the leader of this group for AI-driven content creation.  Would they make a move back to the living room?

Group #3: Content before math
6) The rest - They’ve got great content, but weak personalization. The Screens family only uses separate accounts to filter kid stuff.

How do you know whether a streaming service has Algo TV?

Two tests:
1) If your family doesn’t need separate profiles, it’s not Algo TV
2) If a friend logs in and your feed stays the same, it’s not Algo TV

Who else is playing the Algo TV game?

Other players in the Algo TV game:
1) Roku, LG, Samsung (TV operating systems)
2) Tubi, Pluto (FAST platforms)

Flashback: Streaming Wars Moving Upstream (SOTS #195)