When Will Streaming Deliver More Ad Impressions Than Linear?

Four big questions re: streaming advertising:
1) How many TV ad impressions are there, and why are they declining?
2) When will streaming account for the majority of TV ad impressions?
3) Which networks account for the largest share of ad-supported TV time?
4) Will CPMs for streaming be higher than linear TV?

How many TV ad impressions are there, and why are they declining?

Quick answer: 9.9 trillion in 2024, but that’s down 21% over the past 10 years.

Change in ad impressions between 2014-24, according to iSpot / Cross Screen Media:
1) Linear TV - 100% → 86% (↓ 33%)
2) Streaming TV - 0% → 14% (↑ 4,787%)

Flashback: Off the Grid: Ten Years Later

Ad minutes per hour for ad-supported content:
1) Linear TV - 16
2) Streaming TV - 6

Ad minutes per hour for all TV viewing:
1) Linear TV - 13
2) Streaming TV - 3

Bottom line: Streaming shows fewer ads and has less ad-supported content. That means 1 hour of streaming = 74% fewer ad impressions than linear.

Streaming’s share of total TV time, according to Evan Shapiro:
1) Time - 46%
2) Ad-supported time - 13%

When will streaming account for the majority of TV ad impressions?

Quick answer: UBS says by 2027.

Why this matters: The UBS projection is more aggressive than I currently have in the Streaming Decade in Four Steps framework.  Ad impressions will trail ad dollars by about 2 years. Why?
1) Lighter ad loads
2) Ad-free streaming plans

The streaming decade in four steps:
1) 2025 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in total reach
2) 2026 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in time spent
3) 2028 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad spend
4) 2030 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad impressions

Streaming’s share of TV ad impressions:
1) 2023 - 12%
2) 2024 - 14%
3) 2025P - 20%

Mr. Screens’ Crystal Ball #1: Streaming needs to gain ≈ a 6% share each year to hit 50% by 2030.

Mr. Screens’ Crystal Ball #2: Streaming must reach 80% of TV time, with 70% of that ad-supported — or boost ad loads closer to linear’s 16 minutes/hour.

Which networks account for the largest share of ad-supported TV time?

Top networks by ad-supported viewing time according to Evan Shapiro:
1) CBS - 10.2%
2) ABC - 9.9%
3) NBC - 9.4%
4) FOx - 5.4%
5) YouTube - 4.6%
6) Fox News - 4.6%
7) Hulu - 3.6%
8) MSNBC - 2.2%
9) ESPN - 2.0%
10) CNN - 1.8%

Will CPMs for streaming be higher than linear TV?

Quick answer: Yes.  More money chasing fewer ads = higher CPMs.

 % change between 2014-24:
1) Ad impressions - ↓ 21%
2) Video ad spend - ↑ 29%
3) CPM $ - ↑ 64%