Don’t Look Up

Setting the table: In the Netflix satire Don’t Look Up, a planet-killing meteor hurtles toward Earth, and most people choose to ignore it. That’s what Hollywood and Madison Avenue are doing right now.

Three big questions re: how we watch TV:
1) When will streaming surpass linear TV for time spent?
2) Which media companies account for the highest share of convergent TV time?
3) What happens next?

When will streaming surpass linear TV for time spent?

Quick answer: It just did.

Share of convergent TV time according to Nielsen:
1) Streaming - 45%
2) Linear - 44%
3) Other - 11%

YoY change for linear’s share of convergent TV time:
1) 2022 - ↓ 5%
2) 2023 - ↓ 11%
3) 2024 - ↓ 6%
4) 2025 - ↓ 13%

Wow: 2025 was linear TV’s worst year yet. The gap is growing—and it’s not slowing down.

Which media companies account for the highest share of convergent TV time?

Share of convergent TV time by media company according to Nielsen:
1) YouTube - 13%
2) The Walt Disney Company - 11%
3) NBCUniversal - 8%
4) Paramount - 8%
5) Netflix - 8%
6) WarnerBros Discovery - 7%
7) Fox - 7%
8) Amazon - 4%
9) Roku Channel - 3%
10) EW Scripps - 2%

YoY change for convergent TV time by media company:
1) Roku Channel - ↑ 67%
2) YouTube - ↑ 29%
3) Amazon - ↑ 16%
4) Fox - ↑ 9%
5) Netflix - ↓ 1%
6) The Walt Disney Company - ↓ 6%
7) EW Scripps - ↓ 9%
8) Hallmark - ↓ 9%
9) Paramount - ↓ 10%
10) NBCUniversal - ↓ 11%
11) Weigel Broadcasting - ↓ 13%
12) WarnerBros Discovery -  ↓ 14%
13) A+E Networks -  ↓ 17%
14) AMC Networks -  ↓ 20%

Why this matters: Outside of Fox, every single company with linear TV assets lost ground in the most important battle of all, the battle for our attention.

Flashback: YouTube on the Goal Line for Most-Watched TV Company

What happens next?

Ghost of Mr. Screens’ past: In May 2023, at the Needham Technology & Media Conference, I first discussed the Streaming Decade in Four Steps framework.  I predicted streaming would surpass linear TV in terms of time spent within 45 months.  It only took 26!

Bottom line: Streaming grabbed the time spent crown 42% faster than I predicted!

The streaming decade in four steps:
1) 2025 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in total reach
2) 2026 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in time spent ← YOU ARE HERE
3) 2028 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad spend ← 2027?
4) 2030 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad impressions

The next battle: Ad dollars will follow attention.

Here is how step 3 of my framework will unfold:
Streaming now owns more time + reach → Advertisers think streaming first → CPM’s increase → Streaming beats linear in ad spend before it beats it in impressions

Flashback: $100 CPMs and the Future of TV Ad Prices

Flashback: The 2025 Video Ad Market

Bottom line: Hollywood and Madison Avenue think this is crazy.  But then again, they thought the first two parts of the Streaming Decade in Four Steps were crazy.  My framework received significant pushback, but the transition to streaming is happening even faster than I thought.