YouTube on the Goal Line for Most-Watched TV Company

Seven big questions re: how we watch TV:
1) Which media companies account for the highest share of convergent TV?
2) What does YouTube’s audience look like?
3) Is broadcast/cable gaining ground on streaming?
4) Does streaming reach more people than linear TV?
5) How much has reach declined for major TV networks?
6) How important is sports for linear TV?
7) How much time do we spend with ad-supported streaming?

Big question #1: Which media companies account for the highest share of convergent TV?

Share of convergent TV time by media company according to Nielsen:
1) The Walt Disney Company - 11%
2) YouTube - 11%
3) Paramount - 9%
4) Netflix - 9%
5) NBCUniversal - 8%
6) Fox - 7%
7) WarnerBros Discovery - 6%
8) Amazon - 4%
9) Roku Channel - 2%
10) EW Scripps - 2%

Wow: YouTube is 0.1% away from becoming the top media company in terms of time spent with convergent TV.

Why this will matter: YouTube will be watched more than ABC, Disney+, ESPN, FX, and all Disney cable networks combined!

Big question #2: What does YouTube’s audience look like?

Quick answer: Here’s the catch.  YouTube’s audience is young, meaning a larger share of time (and ad impressions) goes to children (2-17). For example, children under 11 account for 55% more viewing share on YouTube (20%) vs. convergent TV (13%).

Wow: Linear TV gets 48% of its time from 65+, 124% higher than all convergent TV (21%).

Big question #3: Is broadcast/cable gaining ground on streaming?

Quick answer: No.  The YoY growth rate for streaming doubled (21% vs. 9%) compared to 2023.

Share of convergent TV time according to Nielsen:
1) Streaming - 43%
2) Cable - 24%
3) Broadcast - 22%
4) Other - 11%

Boom: 2026 was our prediction for streaming overtaking linear TV for time spent.  Now, it looks like 2025.

The streaming decade in four steps:
1) 2025 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in total reach ← YOU ARE HERE
2) 2026 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in time spent ← 2025?
3) 2028 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad spend
4) 2030 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad impressions

Big question #4: Does streaming reach more people than linear TV?

Quick answer: Yes.  The gap widened over the past year. Streaming reaches 9% more people than linear TV.

Reach on TV according to Nielsen:
1) Convergent TV - 88%
2) Streaming - 77%
3) Linear TV -  68%

Big question #5: How much has reach declined for major TV networks?

The decline in reach by network (2014-24), according to MoffettNathanson:
1) FX - ↓ 71%
2) USA - ↓ 63%
3) TBS - ↓ 58%
4) CNN - ↓ 52%
5) Fox - ↓ 51%
6) TNT - ↓ 50%
7) NBC - ↓ 46%
8) CBS - ↓ 45%
9) ABC - ↓ 41%
10) ESPN - ↓ 36%
11) Fox News - ↓ 35%

Big question #6: How important is sports for linear TV?

Quick answer: Extremely important!

Sports share of linear TV time according to Nielsen:
1) Broadcast - 29%
2) Cable - 9%

Change in minutes viewed between 2019-23, according to Doug Shapiro:
1) Sports - ↑ 50%
2) All Linear TV - ↓ 15%
3) Non-sports - ↓ 24%

Big question #7: How much time do we spend with ad-supported streaming?

Quick answer: 14% of convergent TV time comes from ad-supported streaming (AVOD + FAST).

Share of convergent TV time by streaming type (June 2024) according to Entertainment Strategy Guy:
1) Subscription video-on-demand (SVOD) - 20%
2) Ad-supported video-on-demand (AVOD) - 10%
3) Free ad-supported streaming (FAST) - 4%

YoY change for convergent TV time by streaming type:
1) FAST - ↑ 30%
2) AVOD - ↑ 13%
3) SVOD - ↓ 5%