The 2025 Video Ad Market

Eight big questions re: the video ad market:
1) How large is the 2025 video ad market?
2) How do linear and digital video screen types differ?
3) Which screen types are growing the fastest?
4) How large is the convergent TV ad market?
5) When will streaming TV surpass linear TV in ad spend?
6) How large is the overall U.S. advertising market?
7) What is video's share of U.S. advertising?
8) How much advertising is spent on each person?

Big question #1: How large is the 2025 video ad market?

Quick answer: $183B

U.S. video ad spending (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 2021 - $129B (↑ 23%)
2) 2022 - $141B (↑ 9%)
3) 2023 - $148B (↑ 5%)
4) 2024 - $171B (↑ 16%)
5) 2025 - $183B (↑ 7%)

Big question #2: How do linear and digital video screen types differ?

Share of video ad spend by screen type:
1) Social video - 34%
2) Linear TV - 28%
3) Streaming TV - 18%
4) Mobile - 13%
5) Desktop - 7%

Big question #3: Which screen types are growing the fastest?

YoY growth rate by screen type:
1) Social video - ↑ 19%
2) Mobile - ↑ 17%
3) Streaming TV - ↑ 16%
4) Desktop - ↑ 16%
5) Linear TV - ↓ 14%

PSA: Non-TikTok users may be confused by the current freakout. $47B in new video ad spend over 5 years for social should clear things up.   Social’s video ad growth since 2020 is 91% of the size of the entire linear TV advertising market!

Big question #4: How large is the convergent TV ad market?

Quick answer: $85B

U.S. convergent TV ad spending (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 2021 - $82B (↑ 13%)
2) 2022 - $87B (↑ 5%)
3) 2023 - $82B (↓ 5%)
4) 2024 - $89B (↑ 8%)
5) 2025 - $85B (↓ 4%)
6) 2026 - $88B (↑ 4%)
7) 2027 - $87B (↓ 1%)
8) 2028 - $92B (↑ 6%)

Convergent TV share of video advertising:
1) 2021 - 64%
2) 2022 - 61%
3) 2023 - 55%
4) 2024 - 52%
5) 2025 - 46%

Note: My numbers differ slightly from Luma’s chart because we use different estimates (2024-Mar vs. 2025-Jan).

Big question #5: When will streaming TV surpass linear TV in ad spend?

Quick answer: According to eMarketer, streaming TV ad spend will surpass linear around 2029-30.  I believe this will occur by 2028.

The streaming decade in four steps:
1) 2025 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in total reach
2) 2026 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in time spent
3) 2028 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad spend
4) 2030 - Streaming TV surpasses linear TV in ad impressions

Big question #6: How large is the overall U.S. advertising market?

Quick answer: $425B

Big question #7: What is video's share of U.S. advertising?

Quick answer: Video accounts for 43% of all advertising, and convergent TV accounts for 20%.

Big question #8: How much advertising is spent on each person?

Quick answer: $1,234

Advertising per person in the U.S. (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 2024 - $1,156 (↑ 11%)
2) 2025 - $1,234 (↑ 7%)
3) 2026 - $1,327 (↑ 8%)
4) 2027 - $1,408 (↑ 6%)
5) 2028 - $1,510 (↑ 7%)