TV is changing fast.

We’re watching more streaming than ever.
But streaming still delivers far fewer ad impressions than linear TV.

That gap is the hidden story in TV.
It explains why linear still matters, why streaming hasn’t fully taken over, and what flips next.

The simple version:
Small things add up. Ad load, ad time, and how much viewing is ad-supported.
When these stack, they reshape the entire market.

And when ad impressions flip to streaming, the shift is complete.

This is the last dance.

Let’s break it down into 5 big questions:
1) How much of TV ad impressions come from streaming today?
2) Why is streaming's share of impressions so much smaller than its share of time?
3) What needs to change for streaming to take the lead?
4) What does TV look like in 2035?
5) What happens to the total supply of TV ads?

This is the final part of my Streaming Decade in Four Steps series:
1) Red Pill or Blue Pill? (Overview)
2) Every Person in Your House Has 3 TV Screens (Reach)
3) How the Albanian Army Won Our Attention (Time Spent)
4) Follow the Money (Ad Spend)
5) The Last Dance (Ad Impressions)

The streaming decade in four steps:
1) 2025 - More people reachable on streaming than linear TV
2) 2026 - People spend more time on streaming than linear TV ← YOU ARE HERE
3) 2028 - Ad money flips ← 2027?
4) 2030 - Streaming gets more ad impressions than linear TV

How much of TV ad impressions come from streaming today?

22%.  That’s streaming’s share of TV ad impressions in 2025. I project streaming will pass linear TV by 2030.

Streaming share of TV ad impressions:
1) 2025 - 22%
2) 2030 - 50%
3) 2035 - 62%

Why is streaming's share of impressions so much smaller than its share of time?

Linear TV runs about 3X more ads per hour.

Ad minutes per hour:
1) Linear TV - 13.1
2) Streaming TV - 3.8

Linear’s advantage:
1) % of ad time - +4%
2) % of time with ads - +30%
3) % of ad-supported time - +33%
4) Ad load/hour - +167%
5) % of ad impressions - +255%

Why it matters: Each small edge stacks on top of another.

That’s how linear ends up with a huge overall lead in impressions.

What needs to change for streaming to take the lead?

Streaming improves on the same factors that once helped linear.
Over the next five years, streaming ad impressions will grow 127%.

Growth for streaming (2025-30):
1) % of ad time - ↑ 27%
2) % of time with ads - ↑ 22%
3) % of ad-supported time - ↑ 40%
4) Ad load/hour - ↑ 56%
5) % of ad impressions - ↑ 127%

Change in overall ad impressions (2025-30):
1) Streaming TV - ↑ 170% 
2) Linear TV - ↓ 23%
3) Convergent TV - ↑ 19%

What does TV look like in 2035?

Share of TV in 2035:
1) Streaming (ads) - 55%
2) Linear (ads) - 27%
3) Streaming (no ads) - 14%
4) Linear (no ads) - 4%

What happens to the total supply of TV ads?

2025 is the low point for  TV ad impressions. By 2035, we will be 11% off of our peak before ad-free streaming took off.

Ad minutes per hour (all TV):
1) 2015 - 12.8
2) 2025 - 8.5
3) 2035 - 11.4