For decades, TV operated on a simple and incredibly powerful model.

Everyone watched at the same time.
Advertisers paid for access to that attention.
Distributors controlled the gate.

It wasn’t innovative, but it didn’t need to be. Linear TV enjoyed something far more valuable: a stable, scarcity-driven distribution advantage. The scarcity of channels and the rigidity of schedules created an economic gravity that kept the entire system in balance.

Then streaming arrived, not as a replacement, but as a new distribution model built on the internet.

At first, it didn’t look like much.
Minutes watched were tiny.
Subscribers were niche.
Ad dollars were an afterthought.

From the incumbents' perspective, it was rational to ignore it. The early charts barely registered.

But this is exactly how internet disruptions begin.

Distribution shifts slowly, then all at once.
Small numbers compound.
Consumer behavior fragments.
And the economics of scarcity begin to unwind.

A few extra minutes of streaming per day.
A few million new subscribers.
A few billion ad dollars following attention.

The strategic mistake many made was assuming linear TV would hold its position because it always had. In reality, linear didn’t need to collapse for streaming to win. Streaming simply needed to grow faster, and it did.

Today, we are watching the crossover happen in real time. Streaming is rising, linear is falling, and a $85B convergent TV market is reorienting from a broadcast model to an internet model.

This leads to the central question:

When does streaming actually surpass linear in ad spend?

Answering that requires understanding four things:
1) Why video advertising matters
2) Where video fits in the ad market
3) Where the growth actually is
4) When the crossover happens

This is part four of my Streaming Decade in Four Steps series.
1) Red Pill or Blue Pill? (Overview)
2) Every Person in Your House Has 3 TV Screens (Reach)
3) How the Albanian Army Won Our Attention (Time Spent)
4) Follow the Money (Ad Spend)

Why video advertising matters

This shift isn’t just about viewing behavior. It’s about revenue models.

For media companies, advertising has overtaken subscriptions as the primary revenue source. In a world where content is expensive and churn is constant, ad dollars are the stabilizer.

Ad share of video revenue:
1) 2021 - 49%
2) 2022 - 51%
3) 2023 - 51%
4) 2024 - 55%
5) 2025 - 55%

Where video money comes from (Activate):
1) Advertising (social) - $68B (24%)
2) Subscription (pay-TV) - $66B (24%)
3) Subscription (streaming TV) - $59B (21%)
4) Advertising (linear TV) - $55B (20%)
5) Advertising (streaming TV) - $32B (11%)

Where video fits in the ad market

To understand competitive shifts, you need to understand the total market being contested.

The U.S. ad market is $425B, and video already represents 43% of that total.

Share of all ads (eMarketer):
1) Video - $183B (43%)
2) Non-Video - $240B (57%)
3) Total - $425B

More importantly, video is not one market. It is several.

Video ad spend by type:
1) Social video - $62B (34%)
2) Linear TV - $52B (25%)
3) Streaming TV - $33B (19%)
4) Mobile - $24B (14%)
5) Desktop - $12B (7%)
6) Total - $183B

Where the growth actually is

Here is the simplest strategic lens:

Follow the growth.

Compound annual growth (CAGR):
1) Social video - ↑ 32%
2) Desktop video - ↑ 26%
3) Streaming TV - ↑ 25%
4) Mobile video - ↑ 13%
5) All video advertising - ↑ 12%
6) Linear TV - ↓ 4%

This is Ben Thompson’s Aggregation Theory in motion: internet-distributed products grow faster because they remove constraints. Linear TV is constrained by time, availability, geography, and inventory. Streaming isn’t.

When the crossover happens

Streaming grows.
Linear shrinks.
At some point, the lines cross.

eMarketer says the crossover happens in 2029 or 2030.
I believe it hits by 2028.

Ad spend share (2025-2035):
1) Linear TV - 61% → 29% (↓ 52%)
2) Streaming TV - 39% → 71% (↑ 81%)

This shouldn’t surprise anyone. Once attention shifts, monetization follows. Advertisers don’t buy nostalgia. They buy attention. And attention has moved.

What’s next

Convergent TV is an $85B market, 20% of all U.S. advertising.

And it’s moving from linear to streaming fast.

This shift will reshape everything:
• How news is distributed
• How brands reach audiences
• How sports rights are valued
• Which college football conferences get reshaped
• And ultimately, who controls the future of TV

Next week, we will look at the next frontier: the shift in ad impressions.