Roku still sits on the Iron Throne of U.S. television.
Its operating system powers 24% of the market, 7% more than its closest rival. The TVOS is the front door to the living room, controlling the data, ads, and what we watch.
But Roku’s kingdom has stopped growing, and every major challenger is coming for the crown.
Let's break it down into 3 big questions:
1) What did Kagan's new rankings show?
2) Why is Roku stalling?
3) Can anyone catch Roku?
What did Kagan's new rankings show?
Quick answer: Roku is #1 by a wide margin. Its growth is almost zero.
U.S. TV operating system share (Kagan):
1) Roku OS (Roku) - 24%
2) Fire TV (Amazon) - 17%
3) Tizen Smart Hub (Samsung) - 15%
4) Android TV (Alphabet) - 14%
5) WebOS (LG) - 9%
6) SmartCast (Vizio) - 8%
7) Apple TVOS (Apple) - 4%
8) Xumo (Comcast/Charter) - 3%
9) Others - 7%
YoY growth:
1) Xumo (Comcast/Charter)- ↑ 39%
2) Android TV (Alphabet) - ↑ 8%
3) Tizen Smart Hub (Samsung) - ↑ 7%
4) SmartCast (Vizio) - ↑ 7%
5) WebOS (LG) - ↑ 6%
6) Fire TV (Amazon) - ↑ 4%
7) Roku OS (Roku) - ↑ 1%
8) Apple TVOS (Apple) - ↓ 3%
Roku YoY growth:
1) 2020-Q2 - ↑ 9.7M (↑ 17%)
2) 2021-Q2 - ↑ 10.9M (↑ 17%)
3) 2022-Q2 - ↑ 5.4M (↑ 7%)
4) 2023-Q2 - ↑ 3.2M (↑ 4%)
5) 2024-Q2 - ↑ 2.4M (↑ 3%)
6) 2025-Q2 - ↑ 2.2M (↑ 3%)
7) 2026-Q2 - ↑ 424K (↑ 1%)
Roku share of U.S. TV operating system:
1) 2019-Q2 - 23%
2) 2020-Q2 - 25%
3) 2021-Q2 - 26%
4) 2022-Q2 - 26%
5) 2023-Q2 - 26%
6) 2024-Q2 - 25%
7) 2025-Q2 - 25%
8) 2026-Q2 - 24%
Flashback: In August 2025, I wrote "Roku Rules... For Now." Roku had 25% of the U.S. base. Today: 24%.
Why is Roku stalling?
Three big forces are hitting Roku.
Force #1: The land grab is over.
According to eMarketer, 89% of U.S. households now stream. Over the past 15 years, almost 100M households started streaming. That was the best time to win homes for your TVOS. That window is closing.
You can see it in device growth. The U.S. TV device base grew 11.5% in 2021. This year it grew 3.3%.
Why it matters: Growth now means taking share from someone else. It is zero-sum.
Flashback: Come With Me if You Want to Live
Force #2: Streaming sticks are shrinking. TVs are growing.
Share of installed devices:
1) Smart TVs - 69%
2) Streaming media devices - 29%
3) Flex/streaming box - 2%
Why it matters for Roku: Roku's TVs grew 4.4% last year. Its sticks fell 4.7%. Roku built its lead on sticks, and sticks are the part of the market that is shrinking.
Force #3: Walmart is swapping Roku out.
Walmart sells 55% of all U.S. smart TVs. It's moving 3M+ onn TVs a year from Roku to Vizio's SmartCast.
Why this matters: SmartCast's base is growing 7%, more than 2X the overall market's 3%. Its shipments jumped 39% in a year.
Can anyone catch Roku?
Quick answer: Not on homes. But on new sales, the race is tight.
Share of devices shipped in the U.S. by TV operating system:
1) Roku OS (Roku) - 21%
2) Android TV (Alphabet) - 18%
3) Fire TV (Amazon) - 18%
4) Tizen Smart Hub (Samsung) - 13%
5) SmartCast (Vizio) - 11%
6) WebOS (LG) - 7%
7) Xumo (Comcast/Charter) - 7%
8) Apple TVOS (Apple) - 3%
9) Others - 2%
Roku will not be dethroned anytime soon. Its 53M U.S. smart TVs create a moat competitors will take years to cross.
Bottom line: But the battle is no longer about conquering new households. It is about stealing them. Roughly 1 in 7 TVs (15%) are replaced each year. Each replacement gives Amazon, Google, Samsung, Vizio, and Xumo another chance to flip a home.
Mr. Screens Crystal Ball: Roku will still occupy the Iron Throne five years from now. It will just rule a smaller share of a larger kingdom.