Terminator 2 has always been one of my favorite movies. It had everything: Arnold at his peak, groundbreaking special effects, and a killer Guns N' Roses track on the soundtrack.

For younger readers: a killer robot (Arnold) from the future returns, not to kill this time, but to protect. John Connor, the boy who will one day save humanity, is being hunted by an even more advanced machine: liquid metal, shape-shifting, unstoppable. The twist that makes the whole movie work is that Arnold, who played the villain in the first film, is now the hero. You do a double-take.

He shows up, grabs John Connor, and says, "Come with me if you want to live."

That's basically what happened to Roku.

Roku wasn't dying. It had 100M households, its first profitable quarter, and the pole position in streaming TV. But it could see what was coming: Walmart, armed with Vizio's operating system, quietly replacing Roku software on millions of TVs a year. At the shelf. Without a fight.

Fox showed up with $22B and made the offer.

Come with me if you want to live.

Roku said yes.

Now the industry is doing the math.

Let's break it down into 3 big questions:
1) How much total TV time would Fox + Roku account for?
2) How large would the ad business be?
3) How many TVOS households?

Share of TV time (Nielsen):
1) YouTube - 13%
2) Disney - 10%
3) Fox + Roku - 10%
4) NBCUniversal - 8%
5) Netflix - 8%
6) Paramount - 8%
7) WarnerBros. Discovery - 6%
8) Amazon - 4%
9) Other - 32%

Third place in total TV, behind only YouTube and Disney.

But the more important number is where that viewing is happening. TV time is moving to streaming. By adding Roku, Fox increases its streaming TV time share by 130%, from 5% to 11%.

Share of streaming TV time (Nielsen):
1) YouTube - 28%
2) Netflix - 16%
3) Fox + Roku - 11%
4) Disney - 11%
5) Amazon - 9%
6) Paramount - 4%
7) NBCUniversal - 4%
8) WarnerBros. Discovery - 3%
9) Other - 14%

Now look at how much of each company's total TV time comes from streaming. This is the metric that tells you who's winning the future.

Share of each company's TV time that comes from streaming:
1) YouTube - 100%
2) Netflix - 100%
3) Amazon - 100%
4) Fox - 51%
5) Disney - 50%
6) Paramount - 27%
7) WarnerBros. Discovery - 23%
8) NBCUniversal - 21%

Fox adding Roku vaults them to the top of the linear-native companies, jumping from 31% to 54% streaming.

The sharpest comparison: Since 2023, Fox's streaming assets (Tubi + Roku) have grown streaming time by 84%. During the same period, Peacock grew 25% and lost $6B.

Who would you rather be?

$9B: Roku accounts for roughly 25% of the combined ad revenue.

U.S. streaming TV advertising revenue (eMarketer):
1) Amazon - $7B (18%)
2) YouTube - $5B (12%)
3) Fox + Roku - $4B (10%)
4) Disney - $3B (9%)
5) NBCUniversal - $2B (5%)
6) Paramount - $2B (5%)
7) Netflix - $2B (5%)
8) Other - $14B (36%)

Roku is the clear #1 for TVOS in the U.S.

Share of U.S. TVOS install base (Kagan):
1) Roku - 25%
2) Everyone else - 75%

The TVOS wars are the real Screen Wars.

Roku leads in devices, platform revenue, free streaming time, and ad impressions. Despite having only 63% more devices than Samsung, Roku generates 200% more ad impressions. That's not a device story. That's a platform story.

Winning the TVOS battle requires three things, in order:
1) Get TV makers to install your OS
2) Get consumers to buy those TVs
3) Get viewers to spend most of their time there