Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery could close their deal within weeks. When it closes, the combined company becomes the #2 media company in U.S. TV time.
Why it matters: It is also buying the biggest seat in the part of the room that is shrinking.
The combined company leads linear TV. Less than a third of its TV viewing comes from streaming, ranking it sixth.
The Screen Wars are a game of musical chairs. The music is slowing, and the chairs that count are in streaming.
Let's break it down into 3 big questions:
1) Where are we now?
2) Where are we heading?
3) Who wins?
Where are we now?
Assuming the Paramount/WBD and Fox/Roku deals go through, seven companies will account for 67% of all TV viewing.
Share of TV time (Nielsen):
1) YouTube - 14%
2) Paramount + WarnerBros. Discovery - 12%
3) Fox + Roku - 11%
4) NBCUniversal - 9%
5) Disney - 9%
6) Netflix - 8%
7) Amazon - 4%
8) Other - 33%
Wild: Combined, Paramount and Warner Bros. Discovery have lost 19% of their share of TV time in just two years
Change between 2024-26:
1) YouTube - ↑ 37%
2) Amazon - ↑ 23%
3) Fox + Roku - ↑ 18%
4) NBCUniversal - ↓ 3%
5) Netflix - ↓ 7%
6) Disney - ↓ 10%
7) Paramount + WarnerBros. Discovery - ↓ 19%
Zoom in: Paramount + WBD is a linear giant and a streaming mid-sizer.
Share of streaming TV time (Nielsen):
1) YouTube - 29%
2) Netflix - 16%
3) Disney - 10%
4) Fox + Roku - 10%
5) Amazon - 9%
6) Paramount + WarnerBros. Discovery - 7%
7) NBCUniversal - 5%
8) Other - 14%
In linear, the combined company holds 21%, the most of any media company.
Share of TV attention from streaming:
1) YouTube - 100%
2) Netflix - 100%
3) Amazon - 100%
4) Disney - 53%
5) Fox + Roku - 46%
6) Paramount + WarnerBros. Discovery - 31%
7) NBCUniversal - 28%
Bottom line: The two companies with the most linear exposure are Paramount + WBD and NBCUniversal.
Where are we heading?
100% of TV will be streamed. The question is when.
The Streaming Decade in Four Steps:
1) 2025 - More people reachable on streaming than linear TV
2) 2026 - People spend more time on streaming than linear TV ← YOU ARE HERE
3) 2028 - Ad money flips ← 2027?
4) 2030 - Streaming gets more ad impressions than linear TV
Time spent (2025-2035):
1) Linear TV - 51% → 31% (↓ 39%)
2) Streaming TV - 49% → 69% (↑ 40%)
Go deeper: Last year, I updated my Streaming Decade in Four Steps framework. I built out a year-by-year projection through 2035 for the following:
1) Overview
2) Reach
3) Time spent
4) Ad spend
5) Ad impressions
Who wins?
The Screen Wars are a game of musical chairs, and there is a finite number of seats.
Why it matters: Winning streaming time should be the #1 goal for every media company in convergent TV.
Share of streaming TV time:
1) Streaming-natives - 54%
2) Linear-natives - 32%
3) Other - 14%
The catch: Linear-natives only held their ground by buying a seat.
Since 2023, the linear-natives would have lost 3% of streaming share without Fox's Roku deal.
Flashback: The Music is Slowing
My picks: The ten companies that will control the convergent TV future.
1) YouTube
2) Netflix
3) Disney
4) Amazon
5) Fox + Roku
6) Paramount + WarnerBros. Discovery
7) NBCUniversal
8) Spotify
9) TikTok
10) Meta
The bottom line
Paramount + WBD gets scale and a little time to figure out streaming. To have a chair when the music stops, they need to become a streaming leader.
What to watch: Does Paramount + WBD buy or build its way into streaming before then?
Hit reply: Who is missing from my top ten? Who shouldn't be there?