A year ago, I asked a room full of top ad buyers if they believed streaming ad prices would grow faster than inflation over the next decade.

Not a single hand went up.

They were looking at the wrong number.

They were looking at CPMs, which is what you pay for a thousand people to see your ad. The number on the invoice. The number that makes linear TV look cheap at $20 and streaming look expensive at $50+.

But there's another number that matters more: the eCPM, what you really pay to reach the people who might actually buy your product.

And when you do that math, everything flips.

Let's break it down into 4 big questions:
1) What is the difference between a CPM and an eCPM?
2) Why is political advertising the clearest proof?
3) Where are streaming CPMs today, and where are they going?
4) What's the bottom line?

What is the difference between a CPM and an eCPM?

A CPM is what the invoice says. An eCPM is what you actually paid to reach your buyers. If only half the people watching are your buyers, your real cost doubles. If your target is 5% of the population, your eCPM is 20X your CPM.

Here's what a $20 untargeted CPM actually costs across different advertiser categories:
1) Pet owners - $28
2) Beer drinkers - $53
3) New car buyers - $168
4) Home buyers - $539

Same $20 CPM. Wildly different effective prices. The audience you target determines the price you pay.

Why this matters: Pet food brands can afford to reach everyone. Car dealers and realtors cannot. And the further you move down that list, the more a 'cheap' ad buy is wasting your money.

Why is political advertising the clearest proof?

Nobody did this math earlier than political campaigns. They had to. Their target is the narrowest of any major advertiser, and they have a deadline no one else has: Election Day.

Only 8% of adults are persuadable midterm voters.

The math:
1) 15% of adults aren’t registered
2) 50% of registered voters skip midterms
3) ≈ 19% are persuadable, or 8% of adults overall.

Why this matters: Political campaigns will spend $516 per persuadable voter on video advertising during the 2025-26 cycle. Every dollar that hits the wrong person is a dollar wasted. In a close race, that waste can cost you the election.

Flashback: The Incredible Rise of Streaming Ads in Politics

Where are streaming CPMs today, and where are they going?

Streaming TV CPMs average around ≈$20 for all households, but the price changes a lot depending on where you run the ad

Streaming TV CPMs (eMarketer):
1) Netflix - $37
2) HBO Max - $33
3) Peacock - $32
4) Amazon Prime - $28
5) AVOD/SVOD Average - $26
6) Disney+ - $25
7) The Roku Channel - $18
8) FAST Average - $17
9) Hulu - $17
10) Tubi - $17
11) Pluto TV - $14.01
12) YouTube - $9

Political is the canary in the coal mine, but every advertiser with a small target audience faces the same math.

In Screen Wars, I laid out the Rule of 100:
1) 100% of TV will be streamed
2) 100% of TV advertising will be streamed
3) 100X advertiser base vs. national TV today
4) $100 CPMs
5) $100B TV ad market in the U.S.

Flashback: $100 CPMs and the Future of TV Ad Prices

What's the bottom line?

CPMs are a fiction. eCPMs are the truth.

A year ago, not a single hand went up in that room of senior media buyers. They compared $20 and $50 and concluded that the linear option was the better deal.

Today, Disney, Hulu, and Paramount are opening premium inventory to targeted political campaigns through Cross Screen Media. The market is starting to price what the eCPM math has always said. If your buyer isn't everybody, targeted streaming is the better deal.

The audience you target determines the price you pay. Most advertisers haven't done the math yet. When they do, the $50+ CPM won't seem expensive. It will seem like the last bargain in television.