Welcome to the latest edition of State of the Screens.  

Estimated reading time: 3 minutes [657 words]

Please forward this to friends and encourage them to sign up here. 

Onward,

Michael Beach

The Incredible Rise of Streaming Ads in Politics

Political advertising is strange because it’s one of the few markets where everyone thinks they know what will happen next, and everyone is usually wrong.

I learned that the hard way.
For 17 years, I’ve built companies in this world, two of which have shaped how campaigns spend and how voters are reached. You’d think that would give you an edge. Mostly, it teaches you humility.

When I launched Cross Screen Media in 2017, I built the business around a simple bet: streaming would take a bigger piece of a $3 billion pie.
That part was right.
The part I missed was the pie.

By 2024, the market wasn’t $3 billion anymore. It was $11 billion.
Not because streaming stole share, but because the whole thing grew faster than almost anyone imagined.

Video ad spending rose 350% from 2016 to 2024.

There’s a lesson in that:
The lines you expect to flatten often don’t.
And the lines you barely notice are sometimes the ones that change everything.

Let’s break it down into 5 big questions:
1) How big is the 2026 political video ad market?
2) How fast is ad spend pacing?
3) How much per swing voter?
4) Where is the money going?
5) Which media markets are the most costly?

How big is the 2026 political video ad market?

Quick answer: $11B

Midterm spending by cycle:
1) 2014 - $1.7B
2) 2018 - $3.9B (↑ 142%)
3) 2022 - $8.8B (↑ 125%)
4) 2026 - $11.2B (↑ 14%)

Share by screen:
1) Local broadcast TV - 47%
2) Streaming TV (CTV) - 26%
3) Local cable TV - 12%
4) Mobile/desktop - 11%
5) Social video - 5%

Growth rate (CAGR):
1) Streaming TV (CTV) - ↑ 16%
2) Social video - ↑ 8%
3) All political video advertising - ↑ 3%
4) Local Broadcast TV - ↑ 2%
5) Mobile/Desktop video - ↓ 1%
6) Local Cable TV - ↓ 8%

Why this matters: The fight for streaming is the fight for the future. TV (linear + streaming) = $9.5B, or 85% of all video spend, accounting for 93% of the growth.

How fast is ad spend pacing?

As of October 31st (AdImpact):
1) 2021 - $1.1B
2) 2025 - $1.6B (↑ 50%)

How much per swing voter?

$516 per persuadable voter.

Why:
1) 15% of adults aren’t registered
2) 50% of registered voters skip midterms
3) ≈ 19% are persuadable, or 8% of adults overall.

Keep in mind, this is national and does not even account for the few Senate seats up for grabs (GA, ME, MI, NC, NH, and OH).

Twist: For the first time, digital video delivers more ad frequency to swing voters than linear TV.

Two reasons:
1) Digital reaches more swing voters
2) Less waste means more impressions hit the right people

Streaming reaches more: Even when you consider streaming alone, it has surpassed linear TV in reach for the target audience.

Reachability for 2026 swing voters:
1) 12% not reachable by TV ads
2) 88% reachable by TV
3) 63% are reachable via linear TV
4) 84% via streaming TV
5) 60% via both
6) 3% linear TV only
7) 24% streaming TV only

Bottom line: The persuadable voter is younger, averaging 45 years old, compared to 53 for likely voters.

Where is the money going?

Top 5 states (AdImpact):
1) California - $1.1B
2) Michigan - $936M
3) Georgia - $757M
4) North Carolina - $669M
5) Texas - $556M

Which media markets are the most costly?

Most expensive media markets for reaching swing voters:
1) Boston Manchester - $337
2) Charlotte - $119
3) Raleigh-Durham (Fayetteville) - $114
4) Atlanta - $101
5) Portland-Auburn - $91

A word from our sponsor: In my book, Screen Wars: Win the Battle for Attention with Convergent TV, I explain how better targeting and eCPMs are rewriting the rules of political advertising.