Campaigns are spending a record $11B+ on video ads, but many voters still deciding are beyond linear TV's reach.

The big picture: This is the first Cross Screen election. 58% of swing voters in the battleground Senate states watch both linear TV and streaming.

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Let's break it down into 5 big questions:
1) How big is the political video ad market?
2) Who is winning the ad war?
3) How many will vote, and how do they watch TV?
4) How many have already voted?
5) How do we reach the remaining swing voters?

Quick answer: Last year, we projected the largest mid-term election ever at $11B.

Midterm spending by cycle:
1) 2014 - $1.7B
2) 2018 - $3.9B (↑ 142%)
3) 2022 - $9.8B (↑ 151%)
4) 2026 - $11.2B (↑ 14%)

By the numbers: Spending is running 44% ahead of 2022's pace.

Flashback #1: The Incredible Rise of Streaming Ads in Politics

Flashback #2: Road to the White House 2024 (12-part series)

Quick answer: Republicans hold a 4% edge in broadcast impressions to swing voters.

Share of broadcast impressions to swing voters:
1) GOP - 52%
2) DEM - 48%

Zoom out: Campaigns are resource-allocation games, and there is no clearer indication of where a party thinks it can win than where it moves TV ad dollars.

Quick answer: 60% of registered voters (139M).

Projected share of turnout in the 2026 battleground Senate states:
1) Cross screen - 58%
2) Streaming TV only - 22%
3) Unreachable - 16%
4) Linear TV only - 4%

Projected turnout rate in the 2026 battleground states:
1) Linear TV only - 66%
2) Unreachable - 63%
3) Cross screen - 60%
4) Streaming TV only - 58%
5) Total - 60%

The Cross Screen election: For the first time, a majority (58%) of the electorate will consume both linear TV and streaming.

Wild: 16% of swing voters are unreachable through either linear TV or streaming. For perspective, 117 House races were decided by 16% or less in 2024. The need for holistic voter contact programs has arrived.

Quick answer: 44M have already voted. 15M of those fall into a battleground Senate state.

Share of early vote in battleground states:
1) Democrats - 47%
2) Republicans - 43%
3) Swing - 10%

Turnout rate in battleground states:
1) Democrats - 30%
2) Republicans - 27%
3) Swing - 16%

% of expected vote already cast:
1) Texas - 60%
2) Georgia - 53%
3) North Carolina - 48%
4) Maine - 39%
5) Michigan - 34%
6) Nationwide - 31%
7) Kansas - 27%
8) Iowa - 27%
9) Ohio - 27%
10) Nebraska - 24%
11) Alaska - 19%
12) New Hampshire - 5%

Keep in mind: The state gaps mostly reflect early-voting rules, not enthusiasm. Texas, Georgia, and North Carolina have big in-person early voting. New Hampshire has very little.

Share of early vote in battleground states:
1) Cross screen - 55%
2) Streaming TV only - 21%
3) Unreachable - 19%
4) Linear TV only - 5%

Wild: Among early voters, the unreachable (19%) outnumber linear-TV-only voters (5%) almost 4 to 1.

Turnout rate in battleground states:
1) Linear TV only - 37%
2) Unreachable - 33%
3) Cross Screen - 25%
4) Streaming TV only - 24%

Linear-TV-only voters vote early at the highest rate (37%).

Quick math on remaining swing voters in battleground states:
1) 10.5M registered voters
2) 1.6M have already voted early
3) 84% of swing voters in battleground states have not voted

Share of remaining swing voters in battleground states:
1) Cross screen - 56%
2) Streaming TV only - 28%
3) Unreachable - 14%
4) Linear TV only - 2%

Brands should watch closely. They face the same targeting problem without the deadline.