The big picture: Streaming just hit a record 47% of ad-supported TV time. That number is ahead of my bullish forecast.
Why it matters: Ad money follows ad time. If ad time is moving to streaming faster than the models say, ad budgets will flip sooner than anyone plans for.
Let's break it down into 7 big questions:
1) How much TV has ads?
2) How much of TV ad impressions come from streaming?
3) Why is streaming's share of impressions so much smaller than its share of time?
4) What needs to change for streaming to take the lead?
5) What does TV look like in 2035?
6) What happens to the total supply of TV ads?
7) What’s next?
How much TV has ads?
Total TV time (Nielsen):
1) Ad-supported - 74%
2) Ad-free - 26%
Why this matters: Two things are happening at once. First, streaming's share of overall TV viewing is growing. Second, the share of streaming that is ad-supported is growing. Together, they are making TV overall more ad-supported.
Ad-supported total TV time:
1) Linear - 53% (↓ 7%)
2) Streaming - 47% (↑ 10%)
Quick math: Ad-supported streaming is already 34% of ALL TV time. Ad-supported linear is 39%. The gap is 5 points and is closing every quarter.
YoY growth rate:
1) Ad-supported streaming - ↑ 11%
2) Ad-free streaming - ↑ 4%
3) Ad-supported linear - ↓ 7%
4) Ad-free linear - ↓ 15%
So ad impressions follow time spent, right? Not yet. Here's the gap.
How much of TV ad impressions come from streaming?
Streaming will capture 30% of TV ad impressions in 2026, up from 22% last year.
The big picture: Viewers moved to streaming first. Ad impressions are now catching up.
Streaming share of TV ad impressions:
1) 2025 - 22%
2) 2030 - 50%
Ad load. Linear TV runs about 2.5X more ads per hour.
Ad minutes per hour:
1) Linear TV - 13.2 (↑ 0.6%)
2) Streaming TV - 5.0 (↑ 33%)
Why this matters: Linear's impression lead is not one big advantage. It is several small edges stacked on top of each other: more of its time is ad-supported, more of that time has ads, and each hour carries far more ads. Each edge multiplies the others. That is how a medium losing the battle for attention still delivers most of TV's ads.
Stacked edges are powerful. They are also reversible, which brings us to the next question.
What needs to change for streaming to take the lead?
It already is. Streaming is improving on the same factors that once protected linear, all at the same time.
Over the next five years, streaming ad impressions will grow 127%.
Growth for streaming (2025-30):
1) % of ad time - ↑ 27%
2) % of time with ads - ↑ 22%
3) % of ad-supported time - ↑ 40%
4) Ad load/hour - ↑ 56%
5) % of ad impressions - ↑ 127%
Change in overall ad impressions (2025-30):
1) Streaming TV - ↑ 170%
2) Linear TV - ↓ 23%
3) Convergent TV - ↑ 19%
What does TV look like in 2035?
Share of TV in 2035:
1) Streaming (ads) - 55%
2) Linear (ads) - 27%
3) Streaming (no ads) - 14%
4) Linear (no ads) - 4%
What happens to the total supply of TV ads?
2025 is the low point for TV ad impressions. By 2035, we will be 11% below our peak, before ad-free streaming took off.
Ad minutes per hour (all TV):
1) 2015 - 12.8
2) 2025 - 8.5
3) 2035 - 11.4
The bottom line: The scarcity era of TV ads is ending. From here, supply grows, and all of the growth is streaming.
What’s next?
The flip: My model said ad impressions flip to streaming in 2030. This projection may prove too conservative.
What to watch: Streaming's share of ad-supported TV time, quarterly, in Nielsen's Ad Supported Gauge. Not the headline Gauge. The headline number counts ad-free viewing, which advertisers can't buy.
The bottom line: 2025 was the bottom for TV ad supply. From here on, there are more streaming ads to buy and fewer linear ones. Plan like it.