Next week, I'll be in Dallas watching England vs. Croatia.

The match is a reminder that, while soccer may be the world's game, America remains the world's economic power.

The United States accounts for just 4% of global World Cup television reach. Yet it generates 16% of FIFA's media-rights revenue.

That's why the World Cup coming to America matters.

Not because the U.S. is finally becoming a soccer nation. Because the most-watched sporting event on the planet has arrived in the most valuable advertising market on the planet.

When attention meets purchasing power, extraordinary things happen.

Let’s break it down into 4 big questions:
1) How many people watch the World Cup?
2) How much do ads cost?
3) How much ad revenue will the World Cup generate?
4) How much do networks pay to air the World Cup?

Average U.S. viewership (Sports Media Watch):
1) 2010 - 5.7M
2) 2014 - 8.1M (↑ 42%)
3) 2018 - 5.0M (↓ 37%)
4) 2022 - 6.2M (↑ 23%)

At least for the Fox audience, streaming has not yet taken off.

Share of viewership from streaming (Fox Sports):
1) 2018 - 5%
2) 2022 - 6%

Globally, the World Cup is a much bigger deal.

Total audience reached (FIFA):
1) 2018 - 3.3B
2) 2022 - 2.9B (↓ 12%)

Global viewership by round for the 2022 World Cup:
1) Final - 571M
2) Semi-final - 317M (↓ 44%)
3) Quarter-final - 268M (↓ 15%)
4) Round of 16 - 199M (↓ 26%)
5) Group stage - 148M (↓ 12%)

$100 ($60 - $120)

PSA: Every time I write about the future of ad prices ($100+ CPMs), I get several responses along the lines of “nobody will ever pay $100 CPMs for TV advertising.  My easy response is that between premium programming and niche targets, we already are. This is another example.

Flashback #1: The Real Cost of Cheap TV Ads

Flashback #2: $100 CPMs and the Future of TV Ad Prices

U.S. advertising revenue:
1) 2018 - $350M
2) 2022 - $330M (↓ 6%)
3) 2026P - $830M (↑ 152%)

That looks like a huge increase, but it's only until you factor in that FIFA has made two major changes that will dramatically increase ad inventory.

Change #1: The # of games has grown from 64 to 104 (↑ 63%).

Change #2: Two 3-minute “hydration breaks” have been added to each half.

Together, these two changes will grow the ad inventory by 202%.

Ad minutes per World Cup:
1) 2022 - 448
2) 2026 - 1,352 (↑ 202%) 

Bottom line: So much new ad inventory has been created that the cost per spot could drop by 17% vs. 2022, and Fox/Telemundo would still hit their advertising goal.

Recent media rights deals for the men’s World Cup (Kagan):
1) 2002-06 - 2 tournaments @ $175M → $88M/year
2) 2010-14 - 2 tournaments @ $425M → $213M/year (↑ 142%)
3) 2018-26 - 3 tournaments @ $1.9B → $637M/year (↑ 199%)

Why this matters: The $4B in media rights revenue accounts for the largest share (45%) of FIFA's total revenue.  Add in another $2B for sponsorships (22%), and you are out more than two-thirds.

FIFA's source of revenue:
1) Media rights - 45%
2) Hospitality and ticketing - 32%
3) Sponsorships - 22%
4) Other - 1%

Despite accounting for only 4% of total linear TV reach, the United States accounts for 16% of media rights revenue.

FIFA isn't a sports league.

It's a media company.

The World Cup is simply its most valuable asset.

Everything in this story, from the additional matches and hydration breaks to the rising media rights fees and the focus on the United States, comes back to one goal: creating and monetizing more attention.

For one month every four years, FIFA controls one of the world's scarcest resources: a global audience.

The games determine who wins the trophy.

The audience determines who makes the money.