In one of the most famous scenes in Mad Men, Don Draper walks into a room to pitch a piece of hardware.

Kodak thought they had built a projector.

Don reframed it as something else entirely. Not a machine for slides, but a time machine for memories. The technology stayed the same. The meaning changed.

Television is going through a similar reframing today.

Most people think they bought a television. A screen to watch Netflix, sports, or the news.

In reality, they bought an ad platform for the largest screen in the house.

Let’s break it down into four big questions:
1) Which TV operating system is the biggest?
2) How large is the TVOS market?
3) Who is winning the TVOS wars?
4) When will streaming TV pass linear TV in ad spending?

Which TV operating system is the biggest?

U.S. smart TV operating system share (Kagan):
1) Roku OS (Roku) - 25%
2) Fire TV (Amazon) - 17%
3) Tizen Smart Hub (Samsung) - 14%
4) Android TV (Alphabet) - 14%
5) WebOS (LG) - 9%
6) SmartCast (Vizio) - 7%
7) Apple TVOS (Apple) - 4%
8) Xumo (Comcast/Charter) - 2%
9) Others - 8%

Fastest growth (YoY):
1) Xumo (Comcast/Charter) - ↑ 64%
2) Android TV (Alphabet) - ↑ 10%
3) Tizen Smart Hub (Samsung) - ↑ 8%
4) WebOS (LG) - ↑ 7%
5) SmartCast (Vizio) - ↑ 6%
6) Fire TV (Amazon) - ↑ 5%
7) Average - ↑ 4%
8) Roku OS (Roku) - ↑ 3%
9) Apple TVOS (Apple) - ↓ 0%
10) Other - ↓ 15%

Share of streaming TV ad impressions (Pixalate):
1) Roku - 32%
2) Fire TV - 16%
3) Apple - 15%
4) Samsung - 14%
5) LG - 10%
6) Hisense - 4%
7) Vizio - 2%
8) Other - 7%

How large is the TVOS market?

U.S. TVOS market (Kagan):
1) Advertising - $10.1B (61%)
2) Services - $5.2B (31%)
3) Other - $1.4B (8%)
4) Total - $16.6B

Reminder: On the surface, these look like TV companies.  In fact, more than 61% of their profit comes from advertising.  Selling the TV itself?  Close to 0%.

Vizio is a great example of a company that generates ≈ 100% of its profit from advertising vs. selling TVs.

U.S. TVOS platform revenue by company:
1) Roku OS (Roku) - $3.5B (25%)
2) Fire TV (Amazon) - $2.4B (17%)
3) Android TV (Alphabet) - $2.2B (15%)
4) Tizen Smart Hub (Samsung) - $1.5B (11%)
5) Apple TVOS (Apple) - $763M (5%)
6) WebOS (LG) - $759M (5%)
7) SmartCast (Vizio) - $738M (5%)
8) Xumo (Comcast/Charter) - $189M (1%)
9) Other - $2.4B (17%)

Who is winning the TVOS wars?

Roku sweeps:
#1 in devices
#1 in platform revenue
#1 in free ad-supported TV time (FAST)
#1 in ad impressions

Winning the TVOS wars has three steps:
1) TV makers install your OS
2) Consumers buy those TVs
3) Viewers watch most of their streaming on your platform

When will streaming TV pass linear TV in ad spending?

Streaming grows.
Linear shrinks.
At some point, the lines cross.

eMarketer says the crossover happens in 2029 or 2030.

I believe it hits by 2028.

Ad spend share (2025-2035):
1) Linear TV - 61% → 29% (↓ 52%)
2) Streaming TV - 39% → 71% (↑ 81%)

Flashback: Follow the Money

What’s next?

The streaming decade in four steps:
1) 2025 - More people reachable on streaming than linear TV
2) 2026 - People spend more time on streaming than linear TV ← YOU ARE HERE
3) 2028 - Ad money flips ← 2027?
4) 2030 - Streaming gets more ad impressions than linear TV

Go deeper:
1) Red Pill or Blue Pill? (Overview)
2) Every Person in Your House Has 3 TV Screens (Reach)
3) How the Albanian Army Won Our Attention (Time Spent)
4) Follow the Money (Ad Spend)
5) The Last Dance (Ad Impressions)