Streaming just won the upfront.
For the first time, advertisers put more primetime upfront money into streaming than into linear TV.
Why it matters: The upfront sets TV's price for the year. Most of the primetime schedule gets sold in that room. Every deal that follows is priced off it.
The surprise: The upfront is further down the streaming road than the rest of TV. Streaming is 51% of upfront dollars but only 43% of all convergent TV ad spending. The buyers with the biggest budgets moved first.
Follow the money: Buyers committed 9% more money at 6% lower prices. There is only one way that works. They bought a lot more inventory. Three numbers, one equation, and it tells you what the upfront actually is.
Let's break it down into 4 big questions:
1) How much was committed at the upfront?
2) How much did ads cost?
3) How many impressions were sold?
4) What happens next?
How much was committed at the upfront?
Buyers are committing more of their money earlier.
Upfront share of convergent TV ad spending:
1) 2016-17 - 26%
2) 2026-27 - 39%
Upfront TV ad spend (MediaDynamics):
1) 1996-97 - $8.1B
2) 2006-07 - $16.2B (↑ 100%)
3) 2016-17 - $18.6B (↑ 15%)
4) 2026-27 - $33.8B (↑ 81%)
Wow: Upfront spending is growing almost 3X faster than overall TV ad spending. Up 81% since 2016-17, versus 21% for all of TV.
Upfront TV ad spend:
1) Streaming - $17.2B (↑ 30%)
2) Total - $33.8B (↑ 9%)
3) Broadcast - $8.6B (↓ 5%)
4) Linear TV - $16.6B (↓ 6%)
5) Cable - $8.0B (↓ 8%)
Head scratcher: Since 2021, cable has lost 51% of attention, yet ad impressions at the upfront grew 2%.
Interesting: The upfronts are actually more streaming-heavy than the overall convergent TV ad market.
Streaming’s share of TV ad spend:
1) Upfronts - 51%
2) All convergent TV - 43%
Flashback: Follow the Money
So buyers spent more. The question is what they got for it.
How much did ads cost?
Upfront CPMs (Media Dynamics):
1) Broadcast - $41.65 (↓ 4%)
2) Streaming - $25.90 (↓ 5%)
3) Total - $25.56 (↓ 6%)
4) Linear TV - $25.22 (↓ 7%)
5) Cable - $17.70 (↓ 9%)
Insane: The premium upfront ad buyers pay for broadcast over streaming grew again.
CPM premium for broadcast over streaming:
1) 2023-24 - 36%
2) 2024-25 - 54%
3) 2025-26 - 60%
4) 2026-27 - 61%
Flashback: CBS Won the Season, but Can It Win the Future?
Cheaper ads and more money can only mean one thing.
How many impressions were sold?
Upfront TV ad impressions (MediaDynamics):
1) 2011-12 - 1.3T
2) 2016-17 - 1.0T (↓ 22%)
3) 2021-22 - 652B (↓ 35%)
4) 2026-27 - 1.3T (↑ 103%)
Boom: Streaming's growth carried the upfront back to 96% of its all-time peak. The market sold more ads this year than in any season since 2008-09.
Upfront TV ad impressions:
1) Streaming - 662B (↑ 37%)
2) Total - 1.3T (↑ 16%)
3) Cable - 453B (↑ 1%)
4) Linear TV - 660B (↑ 0%)
5) Broadcast - 207B (↓ 1%)
Streaming’s share of TV ad impressions:
1) Upfronts - 50%
2) All convergent TV - 30%
Flashback: The Last Dance
What happens next?
The endgame for my Streaming Decade in Four Steps framework is streaming passing 50% of all TV ad impressions. I didn't expect that to happen until 2030. Buyers at the upfront got there this year.
The Streaming Decade in Four Steps:
1) 2025 - More people reachable on streaming than linear TV
2) 2026 - People spend more time on streaming than linear TV ← YOU ARE HERE
3) 2028 - Ad money flips ← 2027?
4) 2030 - Streaming gets more ad impressions than linear TV
Why prices keep falling: The upfront is built to trade volume for price. Big advertisers pool every brand into one corporate buy and ask for a discount. Lower CPMs are the product, not a problem. Streaming just handed buyers 37% more inventory to discount.
The bottom line: Streaming won the upfront by selling more units for less money. That is a share win, not a pricing win. The premium in TV advertising is real, and it is growing. It is just not going to the advertisers who negotiate once a year in New York.