Road to the White House: The DNC Convention

Setting the table: This is the 9th part of our Road to the White House series.
1) 11 Billion Reasons to Care About Political Video Ads
2) The Battle for Iowa (Part 1)
3) The Battle for Iowa (Part 2)
4) The Battle For New Hampshire
5) Is Biden Reaching Enough Swing Voters?
6) Biden vs. Trump I
7) The GOP Convention
8) The Race to Define Kamala Harris
9) The DNC Convention

Five big questions re: the DNC convention:
1) When is the Democratic Party convention?
2) How many people watch the DNC convention?
3) Who has historically led in the polls at this point?
4) How many people watched the GOP convention each day?
5) Do conventions matter?

Big question #1: When is the Democratic Party convention?

Quick answer: August 19th – 22nd in Chicago, IL.

FYI: Since 1920, the DNC has held its convention in Chicago 8 times (30% of the total).

Brass tacks: If you want to know which states are important to the nominee, look at the seating chart.  California (VPs home state), Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Nebraska (NE-02) have prime real estate.

Big question #2: How many people watch the DNC convention?

Average viewership for all four nights of the DNC convention (% change) according to Nielsen:
1) 2008 – 25.7M
2) 2012 – 23.0M (↓ 10%)
3) 2016 – 25.6M (↑ 11%)
4) 2020 – 20.1M (↓ 21%)

Viewership for night four of the DNC convention (% change):
1) 2008 – 38.4M
2) 2012 – 35.7M (↓ 7%)
3) 2016 – 29.8M (↓ 17%)
4) 2020 – 24.6M (↓ 17%)

Interesting: The DNC outdraws the GOP by 8% over four nights but only 2% for night four when the nominee speaks.

Big question #3: Who has historically led the polls in mid-August?

National polling average (final result) as of August 19th, according to Real Clear Politics:
1) 2004 – Kerry +1.0 (Bush +2.4)
2) 2008 – Obama +3.0 (Obama +7.3)
3) 2012 – Obama +3.4 (Obama +3.9)
4) 2016 – Clinton +6.0 (Clinton +2.1)
5) 2020 – Biden +7.4 (Biden +4.5)
6) 2024 – Harris +1.4

Big question #4: How many people watched the GOP convention each night?

Viewership by night for the 2024 GOP convention:
1) Monday – 18.1M
2) Tuesday – 14.8M
3) Wednesday – 18.0M
4) Thursday – 25.4M

Interesting #1: Viewership for President Trump’s speech peaked at 10:38 pm EST.

Interesting #2: If we look at the entire night, Democrat viewership peaked one hour earlier at 9:38 pm EST.

Big question #5: Do conventions matter?

Quick answer: Since 1960, the party with the highest average convention viewership has won exactly 50% of presidential elections (8 of 16).

Bottom line: Party conventions are about mobilization and firing up the base.

Quote from Marc Meredith – Political Scientist @ the University of Pennsylvania:

“I think there’s a lot of partisan cheerleading happening alongside maybe a little bit of persuasion.”

Share of U.S. adults who plan to watch the DNC convention according to YouGov:
1) Democrats – 64%
2) Republicans – 37%
3) Independents – 35%

Check out the rest of our Road to the White House series!

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