Grading our 2023 Predictions

2023 prediction #1: Reach for local advertisers is becoming a BIG problem.

Verdict: For the 2024 presidential election, linear TV reach for Republican primary voters is below 50% in early states like Iowa. 

More: The Battle for Iowa

2023 prediction #2: Growth in user-generated content (video specifically) will begin eating into total TV time.

Verdict: The share of user-generated content in total video time grew to 39%, but ad dollars lagged.  I expect that to change in a big way as creators such as MrBeast build billion-dollar brands on non-linear platforms (YouTube, etc.).

More: Are Creators Building the Next Hollywood?

2023 prediction #3: Streaming will eat into linear share of total TV time faster than people think.

Verdict: Time spent with linear TV declined 8% YoY, driven by cable losing 11%.  Cable's market share will continue to erode, but broadcast may fare better due to sports.