Box Office Will Plunge 50% Due to Coronavirus Closures, Analyst Predicts

U.S. movie ticket revenue (YoY growth) according to Box Office Mojo:
1) 2010 – $10.6B
2) 2011 – $10.2B  (↓ 4%)
3) 2012 – $10.8B  (↑ 7%)
4) 2013 – $10.9B  (↑ 1%)
5) 2014 – $10.4B  (↓ 5%)
6) 2015 – $11.1B  (↑ 7%)
7) 2016 – $11.4B  (↑ 2%)
8) 2017 – $11.1B  (↓ 3%)
9) 2018 – $11.9B  (↑ 7%)
10) 2019 – $11.3B  (↓ 5%)
11) 2020P – $5.5B (↓ 51%)
12) 2021P – $9.7B (↑ 76%)

Big question #1: Who buys movie tickets, and when will they return to theatres?

Movie tickets sold by age group (h/t: Matthew Ball):
1) 25-39 – 25%
2) 60+ – 15%
3) 40-49 – 15%
4) 18-24 – 13%
5) 50-59 – 11%
6) 12-17 – 11%
7) 2-11 – 10%

Share that said attending a big event “will scare me for a long time” according to Performance Research & Full Circle Research:
1) March – 44%
2) May – 60%

Upcoming major releases, according to LightShed Partners:
1) Tenet (Warner Bros – 7/17)
2) Mulan (Disney – 7/24)
3) The SpongeBob Movie (Paramount – 8/7)
4) The Wonder Woman, 1984 (Warner Bros – 8/14)
5) The New Mutants (Disney/Fox – 8/28)

Quick math on the potential impact for major releases:
1) Indoor movie theatres – 5,500
2) Individual movie screens – 40,613
3) Seats/screen – 150 – 750 (≈ 615)
4) Total seats in all theatres – ≈ 25M
5) Average ticket price – $9.15
6) Tickets needed for $1B – 109M
7) Tickets sold per seat for $1B – 4
8) Tickets sold per seat w/ 25% reduction – 6
9) Tickets sold per seat w/ 50% reduction – 9

Big question #2: How much would consumers be willing to pay to watch first-run releases at home?

The price consumers are willing to pay to watch first-run releases at home according to Performance Research & Full Circle Research:
1) $10 – 47%
2) $20 – 20%
3) Free – 19%
4) $30 – 6%
5) $40+ – 6%
6) Other – 2%

Big question #3: How much revenue do movie theatres generate from concessions?

Typical markup (% of total) for movie theatre popcorn according to The Hustle:
1) Cost (COGS) – $0.90 (11%)
2) Markup (gross profit) – $7.10 (89%)
3) Retail price – $8.00

Movie theatre inflation since 1929:
1) Ticket prices – ↑ 108%
2) Popcorn – ↑ 1,188%

Share of revenue that movie theatres share with studios:
1) Ticket sales – 70%
2) Concessions – 0%

More #1: Why Is Comcast Declaring War on Movie Theaters? Simple — They Want Wall Street To Value Them Like A Tech Titan

More #2: AMC Theatres Won’t Play Universal Movies in Wake of ‘Trolls World Tour’ Dispute

More #3: Korean Box Office Has Yet to Find Post-Coronavirus New Normal

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