Top Agencies Predict Strong Ad Market Rebound

U.S. ad market (YoY growth) according to GroupM:
1) 2012 – $184.2B
2) 2013 – $184.7B (↑ 0%)
3) 2014 – $191.8B (↑ 4%)
4) 2015 – $195.8B (↑ 2%)
5) 2016 – $208.7B (↑ 7%)
6) 2017 – $214.3B (↑ 3%)
7) 2018 – $229.4B (↑ 7%)
8) 2019 – $237.3B (↑ 3%)
9) 2020 – $228.1B (↓ 4%)
10) 2021P – $242.2B (↑ 6%)
11) 2022P – $265.6B (↑ 10%)
12) 2023P – $263.8B (↓ 1%)
13) 2024P – $286.8B (↑ 9%)

Big question: How does the GroupM estimate for U.S. ad growth in 2021 compare to others?

U.S. forecasts for 2020 vs. 2021 according to MediaPost:
1) GroupM – ↑ 6%
2) MAGNA – ↑ 4%
3) Zenith – ↑ 3%
4) Dentsu Aegis – ↑ 3%

U.S. TV ad market (YoY growth) according to GroupM:
1) 2012 – $64.2B
2) 2013 – $63.3B (↓ 1%)
3) 2014 – $67.2B (↑ 6%)
4) 2015 – $65.9B (↓ 2%)
5) 2016 – $71.3B (↑ 8%)
6) 2017 – $67.0B (↓ 6%)
7) 2018 – $68.3B (↑ 2%)
8) 2019 – $64,5B (↓ 5%)
9) 2020 – $62.9B (↓ 2%)
10) 2021P – $59.8B (↓ 5%)
11) 2022P – $66.2B (↑ 11%)
12) 2023P – $59.4B (↓ 10%)
13) 2024P – $65.2B (↑ 10%)

Big question #2: How are marketers approaching 2021?

Quick answer: Cautiously.

Degree of flexibility in marketer budgets in 2021 according to the IAB:
1) Ballpark estimates – 39%
2) Total budget w/ flexibility – 19%
3) Firm 2021-Q1 – 14%
4) No idea – 10%
5) Firm 2021-1H – 10%
6) Firm 2021-FY – 8%

Changing approach to media budgets in 2021:
1) More frequent updates – 64%
2) Business as usual – 25%
3) Short term budget – 17%
4) Contingency plans – 12%

Big question #3: What is changing about the convergent TV landscape?

Quick answer: Video ad budgets are rapidly shifting to CTV/OTT.

Top reasons for shifting budget from linear to CTV/OTT:
1) Targeting and efficiency – 81%
2) Incremental reach – 55%
3) Creative optimization – 27%

More #1: Ad Agency Forecast: Expect The Advertising Market To Rebound In 2021

More #2: Why TV Advertising Won’t Recover What It Lost in 2020

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