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Michael Beach

The Legend of Cooper Flagg and the Madness of March

Previous March Madness: 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2019 | 2018

Five big questions re: March Madness:
1) Who are the favorites in this year's tournament?
2) How many people watch the NCAA basketball tournament?
3) How much does CBS/Turner pay to air the men’s NCAA March Madness tournament?
4) How much does ESPN pay to air the women’s NCAA March Madness tournament?
5) What share of the NCAA's revenue comes from media rights and sponsorships?

Big question #1: Who are the favorites in this year's tournament?

Favorites to win men’s championship according to ESPN BET:
1) Duke Blue Devils
2) Florida Gators
3) Auburn Tigers
4) Houston Cougars
5) Alabama Crimson Tide 

Favorites to win women’s championship:
1) South Carolina Gamecocks
2) UConn Huskies
3) UCLA Bruins
4) Texas Longhorns
5) USC Trojans

Interesting: Lev Akabas at Sportico filled out a bracket where the team that spends the most money wins each game.

Here is the men’s bracket:

Here is the women’s bracket:

Big question #2: How many people watch the NCAA basketball tournament?

Average viewership for men’s March Madness (YoY growth) according to Nielsen:
1) 2015 - 11.3M (↑ 8%)
2) 2016 - 9.4M (↓ 17%)
3) 2017 - 10.8M (↑ 15%)
4) 2018 - 9.7M (↓ 10%)
5) 2019 - 10.5M (↑ 8%)
6) 2020 - N/A
7) 2021 - 9.5M (↓ 10%)
8) 2022 - 10.7M (↑ 13%)
9) 2023 - 9.6M (↓ 11%)
10) 2024 - 9.9M (↑ 3%)

Average viewership for women’s March Madness (YoY growth) according to Nielsen:
1) 2019 - 670K
2) 2020 - N/A
3) 2021 - 550K (↓ 18%)
4) 2022 - 630K (↑ 15%)
5) 2023 - 1.0M (↑ 59%)
6) 2024 - 2.2M (↑ 120%)

The 10-year trend for NCAA March Madness championship games:
1) Mens - 21.2M → 14.8M  (↓ 30%)
2) Womens - 4.3M →18.9M (↑ 342%)

Huge: Last year, the women’s championship outdrew the men’s by 4M viewers (27%).

Big question #3: How much does CBS/Turner currently pay to air the men’s NCAA March Madness tournament?

Recent media rights deals (% change) for men’s March Madness, according to Indianapolis Business Journal:
1) 1994 - 7 years @ $1.7B → $247M/year
2) 2003 - 11 years @ $6.0B → $545M/year (↑ 121%)
3) 2010 - 14 years @ $10.8B → $771M/year (↑ 41%)
4) 2016 - 8 years @ $8.8B → $1.1B/year (↑ 43%)

Quick math on media rights per average viewer for men’s March Madness:
1) 9.9M average viewership in 2024
2) $1.1B media rights payout
3) $111 in media rights payout per average viewer

Big question #4: How much does ESPN currently pay to air the women’s NCAA March Madness tournament?

Quick answer: ESPN is paying $65M annually through 2032, a 10X increase over the prior deal.

Quick math on media rights per average viewer for women’s March Madness:
1) 2.2M average viewership in 2024
2) $65M media rights payout
3) $30 in media rights payout per average viewer

Bottom line: If viewership trends between the men’s and women’s tournaments hold, ESPN will get an absolute steal. The women's tournament would cost 73% less in media rights per average viewer.

Mr. Screens’ Crystal Ball: The women’s tournament will continue to grow average viewership and may even increase the monster number from last year’s championship game. The men’s side has added star power (Cooper Flagg, etc.), and I expect the average viewership to hold or grow slightly. The women’s game has tremendous momentum and will show the depth of stars (Paige Bueckers, JuJu Watkins, etc.) beyond Caitlin Clark.

Big question #5: What share of the NCAA's revenue comes from media rights and sponsorships?

Quick answer: 68%