The Legend of Caitlin Clark and the Madness of March

Seven big questions re: March Madness:
1) Who are the favorites in this year’s tournament?
2) How many people watch the NCAA basketball tournament?
3) Could the women’s championship draw more viewers than the men’s?
4) How much does CBS/Turner currently pay to air the men’s NCAA March Madness tournament?
5) How much does ESPN currently pay to air the women’s NCAA March Madness tournament?
6) What share of the NCAA’s revenue comes from media rights and sponsorships?
7) How much money does each conference generate from the men’s tournament?

Big question #1: Who are the favorites in this year’s tournament?

Favorites to win men’s championship according to ESPN BET:
1) UConn Huskies
2) Houston Cougars
3) Purdue Boilermakers
4) Arizona Wildcats
5) North Carolina Tar Heels

Favorites to win women’s championship:
1) South Carolina Gamecocks
2) Iowa Hawkeyes
3) LSU Tigers
4) Stanford Cardinal
5) Texas Longhorns

Big question #2: How many people watch the NCAA basketball tournament?

Average viewership for men’s March Madness (YoY growth) according to Nielsen:
1) 2014 – 10.5M (↓ 2%)
2) 2015 – 11.3M (↑ 8%)
3) 2016 – 9.4M (↓ 17%)
4) 2017 – 10.8M (↑ 15%)
5) 2018 – 9.7M (↓ 10%)
6) 2019 – 10.5M (↑ 8%)
7) 2020 – N/A
8) 2021 – 9.5M (↓ 10%)
9) 2022 – 10.7M (↑ 13%)
10) 2023 – 10.0M (↓ 7%)

Big question #3: Could the women’s championship draw more viewers than the men’s?

Quick answer: It is possible. The women’s game smashed the previous record last year. The men set an all-time low.  If this trend repeats, the women could come out on top.

Total viewership for NCAA March Madness championship games (YoY growth) according to Sports Media Watch:
1) Mens – UCONN-SDSU (CBS) – 14.7M (↓ 14%)
2) Womens – LSU-UI (ABC) – 9.9M (↑ 104%)

Quote from Drew Lerner – Associate Producer at Fox Corporation:“Clark has spent the past season breaking records on and off the court. Her Iowa Hawkeyes played in two of the four most watched college basketball games this season — regardless of gender. Both her record-breaking game against Ohio State and Big Ten Tournament championship win against Nebraska attracted over three million viewers. Only two men’s games, a Thanksgiving NFL lead-out between Michigan State and Arizona on FOX (5.18m), and a Duke-UNC game on ESPN (3.08m) also eclipsed the three million mark. Clark’s Big Ten Tournament semifinal against Michigan was the most watched women’s sporting event ever measured on Big Ten Network (1.08m). The championship game on CBS was the network’s most watched college basketball game of the year, men’s or women’s (pending results from this past weekend).Of the six most watched women’s college basketball games this year, Clark played in five. Last year’s LSU-Iowa championship game delivered 9.9m viewers, the most ever for a women’s college game in the Nielsen people-meter era (dates back to 1988). The list could go on.”

Quote from Kevin Garnett – Former NBA player:“This is the first time watching college basketball where I know more girls than guys.  This is the first time we’ve got women’s basketball ahead of men’s basketball. Women’s college basketball is … electric. It is blowing the guy’s game out of the water.”

Big question #4: How much does CBS/Turner currently pay to air the men’s NCAA March Madness tournament?

Recent media rights deals (% change) for NCAA March Madness, according to Indianapolis Business Journal:
1) 1994 – 7 years @ $1.7B → $247M/year
2) 2003 – 11 years @ $6.0B → $545M/year (↑ 121%)
3) 2010 – 14 years @ $10.8B → $771M/year (↑ 41%)
4) 2016 – 8 years @ $8.8B → $1.1B/year (↑ 43%)

Big question #5: How much does ESPN currently pay to air the women’s NCAA March Madness tournament?

Quick answer: ESPN is paying $65M annually through 2032, a 10X increase over the prior deal.

Big question #6: What share of the NCAA’s revenue comes from media rights and sponsorships?

Quick answer: 73%. In 2023, $945M out of $1.3B came from media rights and sponsorship.  March Madness accounts for 80% of all NCAA revenue!

Big question #7: How much money does each conference generate from the men’s tournament?

Quick answer: Conferences are paid $2M for each school that makes the tournament.

In 2023, Front Office Sports estimates the following conference payouts (number of schools):
1) Big 12 (8) – $16M
2) SEC (8) – $16M
3) Big Ten (6) – $12M
4) Mountain West (6) – $12M
5) ACC (5) – $10M
6) Pac-12 (4) – $8M
7) Big East (3) – $6M
8) American (2) – $4M
9) Atlantic 10 (2) – $4M
10) WCC (2) – $4M

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