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The Super Bowl looks like the most stable thing in American media.

Same sport.

Same ritual.

Same Sunday.

Every year, more than 120M people sit down at roughly the same time to watch roughly the same game. If you were designing a stress test for the future of television, you couldn’t do better.

Let’s break it down into 5 big questions:
1) How many people watch the Super Bowl?
2) How many watch on streaming?
3) How much does a Super Bowl ad cost?
4) Does the ad pay off?
5) Who spends the most on ads?

How many people watch the Super Bowl?

Super Bowl viewership (Nielsen):
1) 2016 - DEN-CAR (CBS) - 113.7M (↓ 2%)
2) 2017 - NE-ATL (FOX) - 113.7M (↑ 0%)
3) 2018 - PHI-NE (NBC) - 118.0M (↑ 4%)
4) 2019 - NE-LAR (CBS) - 113.3M (↓ 4%)
5) 2020 - KC-SF (FOX) - 117.6M (↑ 4%)
6) 2021 - TB-KC (CBS) - 98.0M (↓ 17%)
7) 2022 - LAR-CIN (NBC) - 112.3M (↑ 15%)
8) 2023 - KC-PHI (FOX) - 115.1M (↑ 3%)
9) 2024 - KC-SF (CBS) - 123.7M (↑ 7%)
10) 2025 - PHI-KC (FOX) - 127.7M (↑ 3%)

How many watch on streaming?

Super Bowl streaming viewers:
1) 2014 - 531K (↑ 5%)
2) 2015 - 973K (↑ 83%)
3) 2016 - 1.4M (↑ 44%)
4) 2017 - 1.7M (↑ 21%)
5) 2018 - 2.0M (↑ 19%)
6) 2019 - 2.6M (↑ 29%)
7) 2020 - 3.4M (↑ 31%)
8) 2021 - 5.7M (↑ 68%)
9) 2022 - 6.0M (↑ 5%)
10) 2023 - 7.0M (↑ 17%)
11) 2024 - 8.5M (↑ 21%)
12) 2025 - 13.6M (↑ 60%)

YoY growth for linear vs. streaming:
1) Linear - ↓ 1%
2) Streaming - ↑ 60%

Streaming share of total viewership by year:
1) 2014 - 0.5%
2) 2015 - 0.8%
3) 2016 - 1.2%
4) 2017 - 1.5%
5) 2018 - 1.7%
6) 2019 - 2.3%
7) 2020 - 2.9%
8) 2021 - 5.8%
9) 2022 - 5.3%
10) 2023 - 6.1%
11) 2024 - 6.9%
12) 2025 - 10.6%

Similar to the Olympics, Super Bowl streaming is growing much faster than TV overall.  Streaming reached 11% of total TV viewing around 2016. The Super Bowl just hit that number last year. The implication is straightforward: sports are not resisting streaming; they are following it on a lag.  In this case, almost a 10-year lag.

Potential issue:  Last year, Fox offered free streaming through Tubi.  This year, streaming through Peacock required an $11/month subscription.  Could this slow the streaming growth?

How much does a Super Bowl ad cost?

Prices look relatively flat, though some advertisers have paid $10M for a single 30-second spot.

Estimated cost per 30s spot (Kagan):
1) 2017 - $5.0M (↑ 2%)
2) 2018- $5.1M (↑ 1%)
3) 2019 - $5.1M (↑ 1%)
4) 2020 - $5.3M (↑ 4%)
5) 2021 - $5.5M (↑ 4%)
6) 2022 - $6.2M (↑ 13%)
7) 2023 - $7.0M (↑ 13%)
8) 2024 - $7.0M (↑ 0%)
9) 2025 - $8.0M (↑ 14%)
10) 2026 - $8M+ (↑ 0%)

FYI: The 2nd quarter and halftime get the most eyeballs.

At roughly $60 CPM, it’s not wildly out of line with other premium video. What is misleading is thinking the ad costs $8M.

All in, it’s a $25M bet.

And like most big bets, the payoff isn’t where people think it is.

Does the ad pay off?

The best recent explanation came from Ro, the DTC healthcare company.

They didn’t buy a Super Bowl ad to sell pills during the game.

They bought it to make the next $500M of advertising work better.

Only 38% of the value came from immediate sales.

45% came from lifting the effectiveness of future ads.

The Super Bowl, in this framing, isn’t an ad.

It’s a force multiplier.

High level:
1) Investment - $16M - $29M
2) Revenue - $25M - $40M
3) ROI - +44%

Source of revenue:
1) Future ads work better - 45%
2) Immediate sales - 38%
3) Word of mouth - 11%
4) Spike in search - 6%

Who spends the most on ads?

Top ad categories (Axios):
1) Tech - 30%
2) Food & Beverage - 28%
3) Financial Services - 9%
4) Health - 7%
5) Consumer Packaged Goods - 6%
6) Media - 4%
7) Betting - 4%
8) Advocacy - 4%
9) Telecom - 4%
10) Auto - 2%
11) Retail - 2%
12) Travel - 2%

Interesting: Lev Akabas from Sportico charted this shit out over the past 20+ years.  Auto has fallen off a cliff!