Nothing Drives Streaming Subscriptions More Than Sports

Six big questions re: sports + streaming:
1) What sports content drives the most streaming signups?
2) Are subscribers who sign up for big sporting events sticking around?
3) Which streaming service has the most subscribers/users?
4) What share of video revenue comes from streaming?
5) How important are sports to linear TV?
6) Why is moving sports to streaming risky?

Big question #1: What sports content drives the most streaming signups?

Sports content that drove the most streaming signups, according to Antenna:
1) Super Bowl LVIII - 3.2M
2) NFL AFC Wild Card Game - 2.9M
3) Paris 2024 Summer Olympics - 1.8M
4) Jake Paul vs. Mike Tyson - 1.4M
5) NFL Brazil Game - 1.4M

Big question #2: Are subscribers who sign up for big sporting events sticking around?

Quick answer: Subscribers who sign up for major sporting events stay with Peacock and Paramount+ for a shorter period.

Big question #3: Which streaming service has the most subscribers/users?

U.S. streaming video subscribers/users according to Activate:
1) Netflix - 76M
2) Tubi - 63M
3) Amazon Prime - 57M
4) Roku Channel - 54M
5) Hulu - 51M
6) Disney+ - 49M
7) Paramount+ - 40M
8) PlutoTV - 37M
9) Peacock - 33M

Big question #4: What share of video revenue comes from streaming?

Quick answer: 21%

Share of video revenue according to Doug Shapiro:
1) Linear TV - 66%
2) Streaming - 21%
3) Social video - 6%
4) Box office - 4%
5) Home entertainment - 3%

Big question #5: How important are sports to linear TV?

Quick answer: Sports accounts for 93% of the top 100 shows on linear TV and 30% of all linear TV ad impressions.

NFL Football’s share of top 100 TV telecasts according to Nielsen:
1) 2018 - 61%
2) 2019-  73%
3) 2020 - 72%
4) 2021 - 75%
5) 2022 - 82%
6) 2023 - 93%

Flashback: Linear TV = Football With a Side of News

Big question #6: Why is moving sports to streaming risky?

Risk #1: Moving sports to streaming will accelerate the pay-TV bundle's demise.  Don’t forget this is one of the greatest business models of all time.  If you make sports available on streaming, will people have any reason to pay $100+ per month for pay-TV?  Linear TV generates 2X the revenue for each viewing hour compared to streaming.

Revenue per viewing hour according to MoffettNathanson:
1) Linear TV - $0.57
2) Streaming TV - $0.27 - $0.42

Risk #2: Streaming can't create a viable model to finance costly sports rights.  This is a non-issue for Amazon, Apple, and YouTube due to the amount of cash their core businesses spin-off.  Netflix is profitable on a global scale with 300M+ subscribers.  By the decade's end, these companies will heavily outspend incumbents (Disney, Comcast, Paramount, Fox, etc.) for sports rights.

Flashback: Who Has the Best Economics in Convergent TV?