2024 prediction #1: Next year will see the rise of the streaming-first TV ad buyer.

Verdict: Nailed this. Political buyers used modeling to identify their target customers and advanced media planning to see how those targets watched TV. Once they realized streaming reached more of this audience than linear and at a lower cost, funding this first became a no-brainer.

Quote from Shane Goldmacher - National Political Correspondent @ The New York Times:
“Donald J. Trump’s super PAC called them the streaming persuadables. It was shorthand for some of the most important voters of the 2024 election — the sliver of truly undecided voters who they believed skewed young and diverse, and disproportionately consumed content on streaming services like Max, Tubi and Roku.”

More: How Trump Targeted Undecided Voters Without Breaking the Bank

A word from our sponsor: In my book, Screen Wars: Win the Battle for Attention with Convergent TV, I map out how this scenario would play out in 2024 and how convergent TV advertisers can adopt these same tactics.

Flashback: Road to the White House: How We Vote

2024 prediction #2: Political will provide a testing ground for cutting-edge targeting, planning, and measurement.

Verdict: Easy win here. Two presidential teams armed with $1B+ that will expire led to both inefficiency and innovation. The biggest innovation came from the same media planners handling linear and streaming in a single plan. These two ad formats accounted for 84% of political video ad spend and getting the mix right delivered hundreds of millions of dollars of impact.

2024 prediction #3: Many advertisers will reach a higher share of their targets through streaming TV vs. linear TV.  By 2025, this will be the case for the majority of advertisers.

Verdict: In the 2024 election, 70% of swing voters were reachable by streaming TV vs. 60% with linear TV. Many brands operate under this same reality today, whether they realize it or not.