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Onward,

Michael Beach

Sora and the Next Evolution of Algo TV

Roughly every decade, video takes a big leap.

One leap came when a college kid could upload to YouTube and go viral overnight. Another came when an algorithm decided what billions of people saw next.

Now, the next leap is here, and it’s stranger than the last two. Not because of who’s watching, but because of who’s creating.

Sora doesn’t ask you to film. It doesn’t even need actors. You type a sentence, and the machine fills in the rest.

It feels like a toy today. So did YouTube in 2005. So did TikTok in 2016.

But every leap like this rewrites what we mean by content, creator, and audience.

The next leap isn’t about who owns TV. It’s about who owns your screen time.

Let’s break it down into 4 big questions:
1) Is Sora the iPhone moment for video creation?
2) What happens when anyone can make a Pixar-quality video?
3) How much of your screen time has social video already stolen from TV?
4) Which social platform has the largest ad business?

Is Sora the iPhone moment for video creation?

Big deal: OpenAI just launched a TikTok-style app, but every video is made by AI from a simple text prompt.

Video: Introducing Sora 2

Example: My X feed exploded with wild Sora clips last week, including Bob Ross vs. Mr. Rogers at Wrestlemania.

Why this matters: Sora was built as an algo TV company. If it wins attention, ads will follow.

The four(ish) horsemen of Algo TV:
1) YouTube
2) Netflix
3) TikTok
4) Spotify
5) Facebook/Instagram
6) Sora

Speed check: Facebook took 53 months to hit 100M users. ChatGPT did it in 2. Change moves fast. Incumbents are being disrupted faster than ever.

What happens when anyone can make a Pixar-quality video?

Quick answer: Content will explode
1) Most of it = junk
2) Some of it = great
3) All of it = more competition for attention

Two things are clear:
1) The best AI videos will outshine much of today’s TV for specific niches
2) People will keep shifting attention to this niche, personalized content.

Flashback: My Kid Would Rather Watch Paw Patrol Toys on YouTube Than the Show - And He’s Not Alone

Quote from John Burn-Murdoch - Chief Data Reporter @ The Financial Times:
“Both Meta and OpenAI have recently announced new social platforms that will be filled with AI-generated short-form videos. This assumes a reservoir of untapped demand for the ability to create and binge-watch yet more content, with a promotional video from OpenAI featuring absurd fantastical animations and deepfakes, hinting at some of what may be to come. To use a nutritional analogy, this is ultra-processed content. Dopamine-dense, with at best negligible informational value, at worst corrosively negative.”

The Digital Media ‘Attention’ Food Chain in Progress” according to Sam Lessin:
1) The Pre-Internet ‘People Magazine’ Era
2) Content from ‘your friends’ kills People Magazine
3) Kardashians/Professional ‘friends’ kill real friends
4) Algorithmic everyone kills Kardashians
5) Next is pure-AI content which beats ‘algorithmic everyone’

Flashback: TikTok, YouTube Shorts, and the Battle for Our (Shortening) Attention

Interesting: Ben Thompson at Stratechery walked through the 90/9/1 rule to illustrate the share of people who want to create vs. consume content.
1) 90% watch
2) 9% remix
3) 1% create

How much of your screen time has social video already stolen from TV?

Daily video time (eMarketer):
1) Linear TV - 2h 49m (41%)
2) Streaming TV - 2h 15m (33%)
3) Social Video - 0h 53m (13%)
4) Mobile/Desktop - 0h 52m (13%)

Daily social video time (eMarketer):
1) 2018 - 16m (↑ 23%)
2) 2019 - 20m (↑ 25%)
3) 2020 - 29m (↑ 45%)
4) 2021 - 37m (↑ 28%)
5) 2022 - 45m (↑ 22%)
6) 2023 - 50m (↑ 11%)
7) 2024 - 53m (↑ 6%)
8) 2025P - 55m (↑ 4%)
9) 2026P - 56m (↑ 2%)
10) 2027P - 56m (↑ 0%)

Keep in mind: Social is already massive: 91 minutes per day. Nearly half that time is not video… yet. Expect more of it to become video.

Social video growth (minutes per day):
2018 – 16m → 2025 – 55m (↑ 240%)

Fastest growing platforms (owl&co):
1) Instagram - ↑ 11%
2) TikTok - ↑ 8%
3) YouTube - ↑ 5%
4) Facebook - ↓ 3%

Flashback: Social Media Has Become a Video Powerhouse, but Do TV Advertisers Care?

Which social platform has the largest ad business?

Ad revenue (Activate Consulting):
1) Instagram + Facebook - $60B
2) YouTube - $20B
3) TikTok - $15B
4) Snapchat - $2B

What’s next

TV is built on scarcity: limited content, limited time slots, limited creators.

Algo TV operates on abundance: infinite content, infinite niches, infinite creators (or models).

That means:
1) Content budgets become less relevant
2) Personalization replaces programming
3) Algorithms replace editors

Advertising will follow attention.