Road to the White House: The GOP Convention

Setting the table: This is the 7th part of our Road to the White House series.
1) 11 Billion Reasons to Care About Political Video Ads
2) The Battle for Iowa (Part 1)
3) The Battle for Iowa (Part 2)
4) The Battle For New Hampshire
5) Is Biden Reaching Enough Swing Voters?
6) Biden vs. Trump I
7) The GOP Convention

Five big questions re: the GOP convention:
1) When is the Republican Party Convention?
2) How many people watch the GOP convention?
3) How can I watch the convention?
4) Who is speaking?
5) Do conventions matter?

Big question #1: When is the Republican Party Convention?

Quick answer: July 15th – 18th in Milwaukee, WI

Big question #2: How many people watch the GOP convention?

Average viewership for all four nights of the GOP convention (% change) according to Nielsen:
1) 2008 – 25.3M
2) 2012 – 21.3M (↓ 16%)
3) 2016 – 23.9M (↑ 12%)
4) 2020 – 17.3M (↓ 28%)

Viewership for night four of the GOP convention (% change):
1) 2008 – 39.0M
2) 2012 – 30.6M (↓ 22%)
3) 2016 – 32.2M (↑ 5%)
4) 2020 – 23.8M (↓ 26%)

Bottom line: The fourth night draws 43% more viewers than the GOP convention average.

Big question #3: How can I watch the convention?Networks airing the GOP convention include:
1) C-Span
2) CBS
3) NBC
4) ABC
5) Fox News
6) CNN
7) MSNBC
8) Newsnation
9) YouTube
10) PBS

Big question #4: Who is speaking?

Quick answer: USA Today has a full list of speakers.

Big question #5: Do conventions matter?

Quick answer: Since 1960, the party with the highest average convention viewership has won exactly 50% of presidential elections (8 of 16).

Interesting: The first 2024 presidential debate reached 20% of households at some point in the debate.  Republican households were 22% more likely to tune in than households with swing voters.

Reach % for first 2024 presidential debate according to Cross Screen Media:
1) Republicans – 24%
2) Democrats – 22%
3) 18+ – 20%
4) Swing – 19%

Why this matters: Swing voters are less likely to watch a party convention than a debate.  81% of swing voters did not tune into a single minute of debate #1.

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