Road to the White House: The Battle for Iowa (Part 2)

Five big questions re: The Road to The White House:
1) How do GOP primary voters in Iowa watch TV?
2) How much money has been spent on TV ads in Iowa?
3) Which campaigns are spending the most on TV ads?
4) Which markets are the focus?
5) How many targeted voters are reached with linear TV ads?

Setting the table #1: 11 Billion Reasons to Care About Political Video Ads

Setting the table #2: Road to the White House: The Battle for Iowa (Part 1)

Key details for the Iowa Caucus:
1) January 15th @ 7:00 pm CST
2) 40 delegates (2% of the total) are at stake
3) 590K registered Republicans (39% of Iowa voters) can participate
4) 9 media markets touch Iowa w/ 2.3M Nielsen HH
5) 1 out of 13 Nielsen HH will vote in the Iowa Caucus
6) ≈ 50K – 80K votes to win

Big question #1: How do GOP primary voters in Iowa watch TV?

Reachability for Iowa Republicans:
1) 17% are not reachable with TV ads
2) 83% are reachable with TV ads
3) 63% are reachable with linear TV ads
4) 53% are reachable with streaming TV ads
5) 32% are reachable through both linear TV and streaming
6) 30% are reachable through linear TV only
7) 20% are reachable through streaming TV only

Big question #2: How much money has been spent on TV ads in Iowa?

TV ad spending focused on the Iowa Caucus:
1) 2024 (GOP only) – $105M+
2) 2020 (DEM only) – $70M
3) 2016 (GOP + DEM) – $46M

Big question #3: Which campaigns are spending the most on TV ads?

Weekly TV ad spending (12/25 – 12/31) focused on the Iowa Caucus, according to AdImpact:
1) Team Haley – $3.1M
2) Team DeSantis – $2.3M
3) Team Trump – $1.2M
4) Team Ramaswamy – $16K

Quote from Dave Carney – CEO @ Norway Hill Associates:“If you are not on the air, you are not in the conversation, so that is important.  You have to have something good to say, and you save it to the end when most people are paying attention.”

Local broadcast TV impressions that reached Iowa GOP primary voters (MoM growth) according to Cross Screen Media:
1) August – 5.1M
2) September – 6.7M (↑ 31%)
3) October – 7.5M (↑ 12%)
4) November – 9.8M (↑ 31%)
5) December – 18.3M (↑ 86%)

Monthly increase in local broadcast TV impressions between November and December:
1) Team Haley – ↑ 247%
2) Team Trump – ↑ 63%
3) Team DeSantis – ↑ 51%

FYI #1: We estimate that 9% (1 out of 11) of local broadcast TV impressions reach a GOP primary voter in Iowa.

FYI #2: A ≈ $27 CPM becomes a $290 eCPM when you factor in impressions going to non-GOP primary households.

Quick definition: Effective CPM (eCPM) = the effective cost per thousand impressions. For digital ads, this means on-targeted, viewable, five-second views. The calculation for eCPM is as follows: eCPM = CPM ÷ Viewability % ÷ On Target %

Why this matters: While broadcast TV ads are not cost-effective ($290 eCPM), they are the only way to reach 30% of Iowa GOP primary voters.  Finding the right balance with streaming TV (53% reach) is a major challenge for political advertisers.

Big question #4: Which markets are the focus?

Quick answer: GOP campaigns have purchased broadcast TV ads in 5 of the 9 media markets that reach Iowa voters.  Those 5 media markets reach 92% of Iowa Republicans, leaving 8% who can only be reached through other means (streaming, mobile/desktop video, national cable, etc.).

Share of local broadcast TV spots in December, according to AdImpact:
1) Des Moines – 26%
2) Cedar Rapids – 25%
3) Sioux City, IA – 24%
4) Davenport – 15%
5) Omaha – 10%

Monthly increase in local broadcast TV spots between November and December:
1) Omaha – ↑ 217%
2) Davenport – ↑ 191%
3) Des Moines – ↑ 89%
4) Cedar Rapids – ↑ 78%
5) Sioux City, IA – ↑ 63%

 Share of Iowa GOP primary voters by media market:
1) Des Moines – 34%
2) Cedar Rapids – 23%
3) Sioux City, IA – 15%
4) Davenport – 10%
5) Omaha – 9%
6) Other 4 markets – 8%

Big question #5: How many targeted voters are reached with linear TV ads?

Cumulative reach in December to Iowa GOP primary voters:
1) Team Haley – 42%
2) Team Trump – 42%
3) Team DeSantis – 41%
4) Team Ramaswamy – 33%

Wow: Political campaigns hit 80% of their monthly reach from local broadcast TV in the first week.

The post Road to the White House: The Battle for Iowa (Part 2) appeared first on Cross Screen Media.