BIA Revises its U.S. Local Advertising Revenue Forecast Down to $144.3B Due to Coronavirus Impacts

Local ad spend by year (YoY growth) according to BIA Advisory Services:
1) 2018 – $145.5B
2) 2019P – $152.7B (↑ 5%)
3) 2020P* – $144.3B (↓ 6%)
4) 2021P – $165.8B (↑ 15%)
5) 2022P – $173.8B (↑ 5%)
6) 2023P – $179.6B (↑ 3%)
7) 2024P – $187.6B (↑ 4%)

Note: The BIA update was for 2020, and we are currently using their original projections for 2021-24.

Local ad spend for 2020 (% change):
1) Original – $161.3B
2) Updated – $144.3B (↓ 11%)

Change in local ad spend by vertical for 2020:
1) Politics – ↑ $500M
2) Everything else – ↓ $17.5B

Local advertisers spending plan during COVID-19 according to Borrell:
1) Less – 52%
2) Same – 28%
3) More – 16%
4) Don’t Know – 4%

Bottom line: The advertisers (44%) who maintain/increase their spending will be in a less cluttered environment with better rates.

Potential marketing advantage:
1) Ad inventory – ↑ 60%
2) Ad demand – ↓ 40%

Local news viewership increase between 2019-20 according to Nielsen:
1) March 4-10 – ↑ 8%
2) March 1-17 – ↑ 21%
3) March 18-24 – ↑ 57%

Video: The Perfect Marketing Storm of 2020

More #1: It’s All Local Now: The End Of National TV Ad Buying During The Pandemic

More #2: Scripps On ‘Business Equivalent Of Adrenaline

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