Why TV Ad Folks Should Learn Digital Skills — Now

A must read article for ad sellers from Dave Morgan @ Simulmedia.

His projection: At least 50% Of TV ad jobs will be gone in 5 years.

This got a strong reaction from the ad selling community as you can imagine!

Five factors driving this change:
1)
TV world becoming digital.
2) TV world becoming automated.
3) TV world becoming marketer-centric.
4) TV world becoming data-driven.
5) Results will trump relationships.

Agencies appear to have a similar problem as they argue over whether OTT is digital or TV.

Our take: Video is video and a red line no longer separates TV from digital or OTT from social. The future of ad selling will look strikingly like ad planning with all of this being presented/executed together. A focus on meeting customer goals (brand building, etc.) rather than a zero-sum argument for a specific screen will be rewarded by the marketplace.

Quote from Theodore Levitt — Professor @ Harvard Business School:
“People don’t want to buy a quarter-inch drill, they want a quarter-inch hole.”

Extreme Reach: Q2 2018 Video Benchmarks

Share of impressions by length in Q3–2018 via Extreme Reach:
1) 30s — 55%
2)
15s — 41%
3)
6s — 2%
4)
Other — 2%


Share of impressions for 6s:
1) 2017-Q1–0.04%
2)
2017-Q2–2%
3)
2017-Q3–3%
4)
2017-Q4–5%
5)
2018-Q1–3%
6)
2018-Q2–1%
7)
2018-Q3–2%

Share of impressions by device in Q3–2018:
1)
Connected TV — 38%
2)
Mobile — 31%
3)
Desktop — 21%
4)
Tablet — 9%
5)
Other — 1%


Completion rate by device in Q3–2018:
1)
Connected TV — 95%
2)
Tablet — 82%
3)
Desktop — 75%
4)
Mobile — 72%


The Nielsen CMO Report 2018: The Roadmap for Marketers Who Lead

Key findings from the Nielsen CMO (Chief Marketing Officer) report:
1) 79% plan on investing more in marketing analytics this year
2) 74% have little to no confidence that they have the right marketing technology in place

Importance of marketing and measurement technologies:
1) Reach and Frequency — 82%
2) Ad viewability — 73%
3) Data Management Platforms — 63%


The effectiveness of digital/traditional channels:
1) Social Media — 69%
2) Search — 69%
3) Programmatic — 54%
4) Mobile — 50%
5) Linear TV — 43%
6) OTT/Connected TV — 28%
7) Print — 21%
8) Radio — 19%


% of CMOs that expect budgets to increase:
1) Digital- 82%
2) Traditional — 30%


% of CMOs who spend >60% on specific type:
1) Traditional — 33%
2) Digital — 31%


Attribution Issues Are About to Make Your Head Explode!

The fragmentation of viewership across channels/screens is occurring faster than attribution tools can keep pace.

This is occurring in an ad environment where connected TV/OTT/streaming has not even begun to scale.

Other emerging channels that will start providing data for marketers:
1) Autonomous vehicles (Tesla, etc.)
2) Internet of things (Fitbit, etc.)
3) Virtual reality/augmented reality/mixed reality (Samsung VR, etc.)
4) Voice activation (Amazon Alexa, etc.)
5) In-store devices and sensors (store wi-fi, etc.)

How does attribution help marketers? The CEO @ TripAdvisor discussed changes that his company made to their overall marketing plan.

How does TripAdvisor make money? TripAdvisor provides a platform for consumers to rate/research hotels/destinations (think Yelp for travel). They generate revenue by referring traffic back to travel company sites.

What they learned:
1)
Some paid digital channels (search, etc.) added revenue, but at a greater cost.
2) TV advertising generates a higher ROI

Quote from Steve Kaufer — CEO @ TripAdvisor.
“As we have better information and models on attribution, we saw some of the spend was not profitable,”

This has been a recent theme in the travel industry with bothBooking.com and Priceline moving money from digital to TV.

I find this very surprising since my assumption would have been that cost-per-click advertising would have had the highest ROI for travel.

Important reminder. The cost relative to alternatives can quickly turn something that is the “best” into a secondary option. This can happen with video (CPM $, $/view, etc.) or performance marketing ($/click, etc.).

The chart below compares $/click averages for the travel industry against other verticals.


Super Bowl Least-Watched Championship Since 2009

Viewership ↓ 7% compared to 2017.


Average minute audience for TV:
1) Peak: 112.3M (4th quarter)
2) Average: 103.4M
3) Halftime show: 106.6M

Source of total audience (h/t: @MediumBuying):
1) TV (NBC): 103.4M (88%)
2) Out of home: 12.2M (10%)
3) Streaming: 2.02M (2%)
4) TV (Universo): 543K (<1%)

Streaming share by year:
1) 2014–531K (0.5%)
2) 2015–973K (0.9%)
3) 2016–1.4M (1.3%)
4) 2017–1.7M (1.5%)
5) 2018–2.0M (1.7%)

Growth rate for streaming:
1) 2015–83%
2) 2016–44%
3) 2017–23%
4) 2018–17%

There were 49 minutes and 36 seconds of ads.

19 ads (31% of total) ran for 60s+.

Why You Should Be Prepared for Facebook Ad Prices to Rise

How much will recent changes to Facebook’s newsfeed impact ad prices? The answer could be quite a bit.

The math. Wall Street believes that Facebook’s revenue will continue to rise even as average time spent dropped 5%. This could be accomplished by either increasing the ad load and/or raising the average CPM $.


The projected price increase for Facebook advertising:
1) Next 3 months: +25%
2) Next 6 months: +48%
3) Next 12 months: +79%

This is on top of the 20% increase between Q4–2016 and Q4–2017.


Bottom line. This coming fall it could cost $2.15 to get the same impact that you got for $1.00 in Q4–2016.

Facebook is also preparing the launch of pre-roll ads on their Watch platform. Videos on this platform have garnered 50%+longer view times than the newsfeed.

Ad increases are not limited to Facebook.

The cost per click on mobile search rose 25% in 2017.

The Surprising Impact of Buying Attention Vs. Audiences

Last week we wrote about second-by-second viewership analysis using ACR data. This week we are going to look at second-by-second analysis for attention using eye-tracking software.

How does eye-tracking measurement work? TVision installs sensors on panelists’ TVs, tracking eye movements of multiple people in a room.

Engagement by age group:
1) All ages: 100
2) 65+: 114
3) < 18: 90

Engagement by gender:
1) Male: 101
2) Female: 99

Below is an example of a Yoplait Go-Gurt ad.

Below is an example of the best time to reach moms.

The big question. How soon will we be buying ads based on the amount of time targeted consumers spend with our content rather than mass reach?

More. Attention: The Gorilla In The Room

Advertising’s ‘Mad Men’ Bristle at the Digital Revolution

Big brands such as McDonalds and Proctor and Gamble are demanding that their various agencies start to offer integrated marketing plans.

This is creating internal conflicts between the “old school” (creative) and “new school” (analytics).

Big agencies such as Publicis Group now generate more than half of their revenue from digital.


Brands doing more. Proctor and Gamble ran their own creative tests and started requesting changes down to the size and location of the logo.

Why You Won’t Stop Getting Junk Mail

Annual spending on print advertising hit $76B in 2017.

Print advertising includes:
1)
Newspaper circulars
2) Coupons
3) Direct mail
4) Catalogs

Spend on print advertising is up 85% since 2012!


Direct mail is the original medium for audience targeting and laidthe groundwork for much of what we take for granted (CRM targeting, etc.) with digital today.

Smart idea. Buy both direct mail and digital against the same audience/data source and segment based on likelihood toreceive/respond to a message from each.