Holiday spending bill: Most of us spend $1,000 or more on gifts, travel and goodies

Wow: The average American will spend $1,050 this holiday season on gifts, decorations, and travel.

Breakdown of average holiday spend (% of total) according to the National Retail Federation:
1) 
Gifts – $660 (63%)
2) Cards/Decorations – $230 (22%)
3) Travel/Other – $160 (15%)

The average holiday spend per person by year:
1) 
2009 – $783
2) 
2010 – $831 ( 6%)
3) 2011 – $878 ( 6%)
4) 2012 – $893 ( 2%)
5) 2013 – $902 ( 1%)
6) 2014 – $929 ( 3%)
7) 2015 – $953 ( 3%)
8) 2016 – $936 ( 2%)
9) 2017 – $967 ( 3%)
10) 2018 – $1,007 ( 4%)
11) 2019P – $1,048 ( 4%)

Total holiday spend by year (YoY growth):
1) 
2009 – $503B ( 0%)
2) 2010 – $529B ( 5%)
3) 2011 – $553B ( 5%)
4) 2012 – $568B ( 3%)
5) 2013 – $584B ( 3%)
6) 2014 – $614B ( 5%)
7) 2015 – $633B ( 3%)
8) 2016 – $653B ( 3%)
9) 2017 – $687B ( 5%)
10) 2018 – $701B ( 2%)
11) 2019P – $728B ( 4%)

Source of holiday spend (% of total):
1) 
In-store – $565.3B (78%)
2) Online – $162.6B (22%)
3) Total – $727.9B

The anticipated change in spending, according to Gallup:
1) 
Same – 65%
2) 
More – 18%
3) 
Less – 16%

Podcast: Will US Retailers Ring in the First Trillion-Dollar Holiday Season?

Mariah Carey is the Queen of Christmas — and 21st century marketing. Bend the knee. 

Key details for Mariah Carey’s All I Want for Christmas is You:
1) 
Released in 1994
2) $60M+ in revenue (as of 2016)
3) $600K+ in revenue expected this year
4) 100M+ copies sold
5) It only took 15 minutes to write and compose
6) 2019 is the first time to reach #1 in the United States
7) It has reached #1 in 14 different countries

Highest ranking on Billboard Hot 100 by year:
1) 2013 – #21
2) 2014 – #26
3) 2015 – #35
4) 2016 – #11
5) 2017 – #9
6) 2018 – #3
7) 2019 – #1

All I Want for Christmas is You streams per year on Spotify:
1)
 2014 – 13M
2) 2016 – 61M
3) 2018 – 181M

Quick math on Mrs. Screens and All I Want for Christmas is You:
1) 602M 
total streams on Spotify for the entire world
2) Mrs. Screens decorates the house in early November
3) 60 days per year of Christmas celebration
4) 10 years w/ Spotify
5) 600 days of Christmas celebration
6) Mrs. Screens plays All I Want for Christmas is You ≈ 100 times per day (6K per year; 60K over ten years)
7) Mrs. Screens has accounted for 0.01% of the global streams and ≈ $6K in revenue for Mariah Carey

Top 5 holiday albums according to the RIAA:
1) 
Elvis’ Christmas Album by Elvis (1970)
2) Miracles: The Holiday Album by Kenny G (1994)
3) Now That’s What I Call Christmas! by various artists (2001)
4) A Fresh Aire Christmas by Mannheim Steamroller (1988)
5) Mannheim Steamroller Christmas by Mannheim Steamroller ( 1984)

Top 5 countries ranked by share of Christmas streams on Christmas Day according to Spotify:
1) 
Sweden
2) Britain
3) Germany
4) Australia
5) United States

Top 5 states ranked by share of Christmas streams on Christmas Day:
1) 
New Hampshire
2) Utah
3) New York
4) Florida
5) California

Video: ‘All I Want for Christmas’ Carpool Karaoke

Fox News’ upper hand next year: The country’s eyeballs, down to districts

Key details for news viewership according to Morning Consult:
1) 
The study included 1.1M+ responses and is broken down by congressional district
2) Fox News led all cable news networks with a 33% share of viewers
3) According to Nielsen, Fox News has been the most-watched cable news network for 40 straight months.

Share of cable news viewership:
1) 
Fox News – 33%
2) 
CNN – 28%
3) 
MSNBC – 20%

Top cable news viewership by district (% of total):
1) 
Fox News – 299 (69%)
2) CNN – 63 (15%)
3) Fox News – 1 (1%)

Cable news networks by 2018 prime-time audience (YoY growth):
1) 
Fox News – 2.5M (↑ 3%)
2) MSNBC – 1.8M (↑ 12%)
3) CNN – 990K (↓ 6%)

Top 5 districts for Fox News:
1) 
FL-21 – 47%
2) 
FL-11 – 44%
3) 
NJ-07 – 44%
4) 
NY-17 – 44%
5) 
GA-13 – 44%

Top 5 districts for CNN:
1) 
NY-12 – 56%
2) 
FL-27 – 49%
3) 
CA-30 – 46%
4) 
CA-28 – 46%
5) 
NY-10 – 46%

Top 5 districts for MSNBC:
1) 
CA-02 – 36%
2) 
NY-12 – 36%
3) 
FL-23 – 32%
4) 
NY-13 – 32%
5) 
VA-08 – 32%

Flashback #1: Fox News wins 2018 ratings race; MSNBC has its best year ever

Flashback #2: Social media outpaces print newspapers in the U.S. as a news source

Flashback #3: Cable News Wars: Inside the Unprecedented Battle for Viewers in Trump Era

Comcast to Spend $2 Billion on NBCU’s Peacock Streaming Service in First Two Years

Key details for Peacock streaming service:
1) 
Launching in April
2) 15K hours of content
3) Free for Comcast pay-TV subscribers w/ more options coming soon (we think 🤞)
4) $2B budget over 2020-21
5) Estimated break-even by year 5
6)
 Comcast has 6M+ broadband-only customers

PSA: $2B = 1% of annual revenue for Comcast…

Quick math on the advertising model for Peacock:
1) 
Ad minutes/hour – 3-5
2) 
30s spots/hour – 6-10
3) Ad revenue/user/month – $5
4) CPM $ –  $30
5) $/spot – $0.03
6) Spots/month – 167
7) The service hits the revenue target at 17-28 hours/viewer/month

Quote from Mike Cavanagh – CFO @ Comcast:
“We think we’ve got a pretty special opportunity, when you think about the relatively underserved segment of premium content [that is] ad-supported…Consumer demand is there, with all the pay-for SVOD services that are proliferating…Comcast research has found that 80% of consumers are interested in watching a premium VOD service that has a “reasonable amount of ads,”

Video: Sources: Peacock streaming service likely to be free for all

Hulu hopes to make ads part of your binge session

Hulu is launching a special ad unit aimed at binge-watchers.

What is a binge-watcher?  Hulu defines a binge-watcher as anyone who watches 3+ episodes of a show consecutively.

How common is binge-watching?  Binge-watching accounts for 50%+ of the ad-supported hours on Hulu, and 75% of U.S. consumers binge their favorite shows.

The partners for this test include:
1) Cheez-It
2) Maker’s Mark Bourbon
3) Sparkle Paper Towels

The types of binge-ad formats, according to Axios:
1) Ad-free episode
2) Promotion ads

Hulu subscriptions (% of total) by type according to Bernstein Research:
1) Ad-Supported – 18.4M (63%)
2) Ad-free – 7.9M (27%)
3) Live – 2.7M (10%)
4) Total – 29.0M

Hulu advertising revenue in U.S. (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 2016 – $873M (↑ 16%)
2) 2017 – $986M (↑ 13%)
3) 2018 – $1.1B (↑ 16%)
4) 2019P – $1.3B (↑ 15%)
5) 2020P – $1.5B (↑ 13%)

Hulu viewers by year (YoY growth):
1) 2016 – 32.7M
2) 2017 – 43.1M (↑ 32%)
3) 2018 – 64.5M (↑ 50%)
4) 2019P – 75.8M (↑ 18%)
5) 2020P – 86.2M (↑ 14%)

Hulu advertising revenue per viewer:
1) 2016 – $26.65
2) 2017 – $22.88
3) 2018 – $17.66
4) 2019P – $17.29
5) 2020P – $17.21

More #1: Peter Chernin: ‘There’s No Reason Hulu Shouldn’t Be Netflix Today’

More #2: Hulu’s Peter Naylor on Changing the Advertising Model

More #3: Hulu is raising price of its live TV service to $55 a month

The top songs, artists, playlists, and podcasts of 2019—and the last decade

Most-streamed artists of 2019 according to Spotify:
1) 
Post Malone
2) Billie Eilish
3) Ariana Grande
4) Ed Sheeran
5) Bad Bunny

Most-streamed artists of the decade:
1) 
Drake
2) Ed Sheeran
3) Post Malone
4) Ariana Grande
5) Eminem

Most-streamed tracks of 2019:
1) 
“Señorita” – Camila Cabello, Shawn Mendes
2) “bad guy” – Billie Eilish
3) “Sunflower” – Post Malone, Swae Lee
4) “7 Rings” – Ariana Grande
5) “Old Town Road – Remix” – Lil Nas X, Billy Ray Cyrus

Most-streamed tracks of the decade:
1) 
“Shape of You” – Ed Sheeran
2) “One Dance”  – Drake, Kyla, WizKid
3) “rockstar (feat. 21 Savage)” – 21 Savage, Post Malone
4) “Closer” – Halsey, The Chainsmokers
5) “Thinking out Loud” – Ed Sheeran

Top 5 touring acts of the decade according to Pollstar:
1) 
U2 – $1.0B
2) 
The Rolling Stones – $929M
3) 
Ed Sheeran – $922M
4) 
Taylor Swift – $900M
5) 
Beyoncé – $857M

Total concert revenue for top 100 tours according to Pollstar:
1) 
2010 – $2.2B (↓ 13%)
2) 2011 – $2.3B (↑ 6%)
3) 2012 – $2.5B (↑ 8%)
4) 2013 – $2.8B (↑ 10%)
5) 2014 – $2.7B (↓ 2%)
6) 2015 – $3.1B (↑ 14%)
7) 2016 – $3.3B (↑ 7%)
8) 2017 – $3.7B (↑ 9%)
9) 2018 – $3.7B (↑ 0%)

FYI: Concerts generate 2X the revenue of an NBA/NHL game in the same arena.

Why NBA TV ratings are down

YoY change in NBA ratings by network according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 
TNT – ↓ 22%
2) 
ESPN – ↓ 19%
3) 
Regional Sports Networks (RSN) – ↓ 7%

Average viewers/game (YoY growth):
1) 2018-19 – 1.75M
2) 
2019-20 – 1.45M (↓ 17%)

Quote from Adam Silver – Commissioner @ NBA:
 “Especially for the NBA, which is primarily a cable-satellite sport, that system is broken to a certain extent… It’s not just in terms of the loss of homes, but our young viewers, in particular, are tuning out cable, traditional cable.”

The big question: Would the NBA fare better on broadcast TV?  Mak Cuban seems to think so.

Teams w/ the most nationally televised games in 2019-20:
1) Los Angeles Lakers – 43
2) Golden State Warriors – 42
3) Los Angeles Clippers – 26

NBA TV rights fees/year (% change) by deal according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 
2002-08 – $767M
2) 
2008-16 – $930M (↑ 62%)
3) 2016-25 – $2.6B (↑ 215%)

The big big picture: The NBA’s future is in China.

Key details for the NBA in China:
1) 490M 
people in China watched NBA content on Tencent last year
2) 21M people in China watched part of Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals on Tencent
3) 18M people (average minute audience) watched Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals in the U.S.

More #1: NBA ratings are in a steep decline: Sorting through some popular myths — and looking for a solution

More #2: NBA TV Now Available as Direct Streaming Service, No Cable or Satellite TV Required 

More #3: NBA Sets Earlier Start Times for TV Doubleheaders

Martin Scorsese’s biggest opening weekend ever was on Netflix — but there’s a catch

Key details for The Irishman over the initial week according to Nielsen:
1) 3.5 
hours in length
2) 17.1M total viewers
3) 13.2M average minute audience
4) 3.9M total viewers on day one
5) 751K completed on day one
6) 19% completion rate on day one

FWIW: Netflix released its own viewer number of 26M.

Average minute audience over the initial week according to Nielsen:
1) Bird Box – 16.9M
2) The Irishman – 13.2M
3) El Camino – 8.2M

Netflix has three categories for movie viewers:
1) Starters – Watch at least 2 minutes
2) Watchers – Complete at least 70%
3) Completers – Finish movie

Completion % on day one, according to Nielsen:
1) The Irishman – 18%
2) Bird Box – 18%
2) El Camino – 11%

Media age of viewer:
1) The Irishman – 49
2) Netflix – 31

Video: Netflix Film Chief Scott Stuber Says Streamer Planning to Release More Audience Numbers

More #1: ‘The Irishman’ VFX Supervisor Details De-Aging De Niro in New Episode of ‘Behind the Screen’

More #2: Why Watching ‘The Irishman’ At Home Is Better Than In A Theater

More #3: Despite Controversy, ‘The Irishman’ Is Netflix’s Biggest Theatrical Release at Home and Abroad

eMarketer: Television Update Fall 2019

Addressable TV spend by year (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 
2016 – $760M
2) 
2017 – $970M (↑ 28%)
3) 2018 – $1.5B (↑ 51%)
4) 2019P – $2.0B (↑ 37%)
5) 2020P – $2.9B (↑ 44%)
6) 2021P – $3.5B (↑ 21%)

Video: Mythbusting with LiveRamp Video GM Allison Metcalfe

More #1: Addressing The Kinks Of Addressable TV

More #2: The Ad-Free Disney Plus Wake-Up Call: We Must Scale Universal Addressable TV+ Now

More #3: Addressable’s Accelerating Push Into National Inventory

Baby Yodas don’t come cheap: The streaming wars will cost Disney, Netflix, and WarnerMedia $16 billion

Pay-TV subscribers by sports and news viewership (% of total) according to MoffettNathanson:
1) 
Sports + News – 48.1M (51%)
2) News only – 24.5M (26%)
3) Non-Sports/News – 13.0M (14%)
4) Sports only – 8.2M (9%)

The big question: How long before those 13M non-sports/news HH cut the cord and move to streaming video-on-demand (SVOD)?

Projected non-Sports programming expenses in 2019:
1) Disney – $18.7B
2) Comcast – $15.9B
3)
 AT&T – $12.2B
4) Netflix – $9.2B
5) 
ViacomCBS – $8.8B
6)
 Amazon – $5.8B
7) Fox – $3.8B
8) Discovery – $2.6B
9) Apple – $2.0B
10) AMC – $1.0B

U.S. subscription revenue for SVOD according to Cowen:
1) 2019 – $19B
2) 2024 – $41B

Share of consumers who watch their most recent favorite show through streaming according to Hub Research Base:
1) 
2015 – 43%
2) 
2016 – 47%
3) 
2017 – 52%
4) 
2018 – 54%
5) 
2019 – 63%

Video: MoffettNathanson’s Michael Nathanson | Full interview | Code Media 2019

Podcast: The Streaming Wars: A New Era In TV

More #1: The Streaming Era Has Finally Arrived. Everything Is About to Change

More #2: For Streamers, the Great Unbundling Was Too Good to Be True