NFL TV Ratings Grow for 2nd Straight Year

NFL average TV ratings for the regular season (YoY change):
1) 
2015 – 18.7M
2) 
2016 – 16.5M (↓ 12%)
3) 2017 – 15.0M (↓ 9%)
4) 2018 – 15.8M (↑ 6%)
5) 2019 – 16.5M (↑ 4%)

Total viewership for past 10 Super Bowls (YoY change) according to Sports Media Watch:
1) 2010 – NO-IND (CBS) – 106.5M (↑ 8%)
2) 2011 – GB-PIT (FOX) – 111.0M (↑ 4%)
3) 2012 – NYG-NE (NBC) – 111.4M (↑ 0%)
4) 2013 – BAL-SF (CBS) – 108.7M (↓ 2%)
5) 2014 – SEA-DEN (FOX) – 112.2M (↑ 3%)
6) 2015 – NE-SEA (NBC) – 114.4M (↑ 2%)
7) 2016 – DEN-CAR (CBS) – 111.9M (↓ 2%)
8) 2017 – NE-ATL (FOX) – 113.3M (↑ 1%)
9) 2018 – PHI-NE (NBC) – 106.0M (↓ 6%)
10) 2019 – NE-LAR (CBS) – 101.3M (↓ 4%)

FYI: The Super Bowl has always been the most popular show on TV.

The difference in Nielsen HH rating between the Super Bowl and #1 primetime show, according to Michael Mulvihill:
1) 
1969 – ↑ 13%
2) 
1979 – ↑ 54%
3) 
1989 – ↑ 70%
4) 
1999 – ↑ 97%
5) 
2009 – ↑ 192%
6) 
2019 – ↑ 414%

Our prediction: Total viewership grows 1.7% YoY (↑ 1.7M) to 103M.

More #1: Ratings up, future bright: NFL rebounds off troubled seasons

More #2: Super Bowl Sunday ratings predictions

The Metaverse: What It Is, Where to Find it, and Fortnite

Quick read: Matthew Ball goes deep (8K+ words) on how games such as Fortnite may be a bridge to the metaverse.

WTF is the metaverse???  Wikipedia defines the metaverse as a collective virtual shared space, created by the convergence of virtually enhanced physical reality and physically persistent virtual space, including the sum of all virtual worlds, augmented reality, and the internet.

Why this matters: Global revenue for video games is already double the size for music and growing at a faster rate.  Imagine how large that market could be if/when this happened!

Global video game revenue (YoY growth) according to Activate Consulting:
1) 2016 – $92B
2) 2017 – $105B (↑ 14%)
3) 2018 – $113B (↑ 8%)
4) 2019P – $123B (↑ 9%)
5) 2020P – $133B (↑ 8%)
6) 2021P – $145B (↑ 9%)
7) 2022P – $156B (↑ 8%)
8) 2023P – $171B (↑ 10%)

More #1: The Sci-Fi Guru Who Predicted Google Earth Explains Silicon Valley’s Latest Obsession

More #2: Why Twitch Is Still the King of Live Game Streaming

More #3: 7 Reasons Why Video Gaming Will Take Over

Ampersand Launches Solution To Simplify Advanced TV Buying

Big news #1: Ampersand (formerly NCC Media) launched the AND platform offering planning and measurement for advanced TV campaigns.

Key details for Ampersands AND platform:
1) 
Currently a managed service
2) Self-serve software launching in late 2020
3) 85M households
4) 120 cable networks
5) Set-top box data from 40M households (Comcast, Cox, and Charter)
6) 80 pre-loaded audience segments

Video: Ampersand Launches ‘The AND Platform’ to Unify Audience and Measurement Across Inventories

Big news #2: Cadent acquired 4INFO and will be adding the device graph to their advanced TV offering.

Smart move: Both are a signal that the silos separating video advertising are coming down, and the future for $114B+ in video advertising is cross screen and audience-based.

Quote from Nick Troiano – CEO @ Cadent:
“This is really an extension to what we’ve been offering…It’s an acceleration to finding those audiences in other platforms, which is necessary for massive dollars to ultimately shift to advanced TV.”

Share of projected linear TV spend using advanced TV data according to FreeWheel:
1) 
2019 – 41%
2) 
2020 – 47%

More #1: Platform-Driven TV Advertising Is Mainstreaming, Finally

More #2: Automation Key to Keeping Linear TV in Ad Ballgame

More #3: Cadent’s Next Step in Fulfilling the Cross-Channel Promise of TV

Netflix Subscriber Growth Falls Short in U.S., but Leaps Abroad

Netflix subscriber growth in 2019-Q4:
1) 
Projected – 7.0M
2) 
Actual – 8.3M

Netflix subscribers (% of total):
1) 
International – 106.1M (63%)
2) Domestic – 61.0M (37%)
3) Total – 167.1M

Netflix subscriber growth in 2019-Q4 (% of total):
1) 
International – 8.3M (95%)
2) Domestic – 420K (5%)
3) Total – 8.8M

Netflix subscribers by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 
2015-Q4 – 74.8M
2) 
2016-Q4 – 93.8M (↑ 25%)
3) 2017-Q4 – 110.6M (↑ 18%)
4) 2018-Q4 – 139.3M (↑ 26%)
5) 2019-Q4 – 167.1M (↑ 20%)

Video: Here’s what Netflix CEO Reed Hastings had to say at The New York Times’ Dealbook conference

More: 2020 will be the year that defines Netflix’s future. Analysts break down the 5 big challenges it faces.

In Defense of Targeting

Worth the time: Jeff Jarvis makes an interesting point of who the winners and losers would be if Facebook removed political targeting.

Who benefits from targeting on Facebook:
1) 
Upstart/challenger candidates
2) Nascent movements
3) New/small businesses

Key point: Targeted advertising delivers greater relevance at a lower cost as opposed to mass media.

Why this matters: Facebook recently clarified their political ads policy ahead of the 2020 election, and “microtargeting” will be allowed.

Flashback #1: Trump’s general election brawl to drive record advertising

Flashback #2: Political ads are tricky to define in digital era

More #1: Here’s Why Facebook Won’t Do The Obvious

More #2: Lord of the Rings, 2020 and Stuffed Oreos: Read the Andrew Bosworth Memo

Read the full post from Andrew Bosworth here.

More #3: Facebook will make political ads optional for users

‘Jeopardy! Greatest of All Time’ had better ratings than a lot of sports

Total viewers for Jeopardy! GOAT, according to Nielsen:
1) Night 1 – 14.5M
2) 
Night 2 – 14.9M
3) 
Night 3 – 15.5M
4) 
Night 4 – 13.5M

The average audience for Jeopardy! GOAT was higher than the following:
1) 2019 MLB World Series (Games 1-5)
2) 2019 NBA Finals (Games 1-4)

Deep dive: In Conversation: Alex Trebek The Jeopardy! icon on retirement, his legacy, and why knowledge matters.

Wow: Alex Trebek has not missed a single show since being diagnosed with pancreatic cancer last March.

More #1: Who’s The Greatest Of All Time? Alex Trebek, Of Course

More #2: TV Long View: Here’s Just How Big ‘Jeopardy: The Greatest of All Time’ Is So Far

More #3: For ‘Jeopardy’ fans, Ken Jennings is the greatest

NBCU’s Peacock Marks Media’s Latest Try to Connect Consumers, Commercials

Peacock is launching w/ three pricing tiers according to Variety:
1) Free – 
Ad-supported w/ limited programming
2) Premium ($5) – Ad-supported w/ access to a larger content library
3) Premium + Ad-Free ($10) – Full access to programming (600 movies + 400 TV series)

Peacock launch details according to Axios:
1) 
Xfinity customers – April 15th
2) National launch – July 15th

Ad minutes per hour, according to NBCUniversal:
1) 
Linear TV – 16-20
2) 
Digital video – 8
3) 
Peacock – 5

Quick math on the advertising model for Peacock:
1) 
Ad minutes/hour – 5
2) 
30s spots/hour – 10
3) Ad revenue/user/month – ≈ $5.20 (see below)
3) CPM $ –  $30
4) $/spot – $0.03
5) Spots/month – 173
6) The service hits the revenue target at 17 hours/viewer/month

Quote from Linda Yaccarino – Chairman of Advertising & Partnerships @ NBCUniversal:
“With Peacock, we’re giving consumers the free service they want and advertisers the reach and scale they desperately need—this is the best thing to happen to everyone’s screens in a long time…Peacock marks a doubling-down on the ad-supported ecosystem, and the next phase of NBCUniversal’s One Platform offering.”

Flashback: Comcast to Spend $2 Billion on NBCU’s Peacock Streaming Service in First Two Years

Peacock financial estimates by 2024:
1) Accounts – 30-35M
2) Monthly revenue/user – $6-$7
3) Total revenue –  $2.5B

Podcast: NBC’s Peacock enters the Streaming Wars

Video #1: Peacock Investor Day Presentation

Video #2: Peacock’s model will be great for the consumer, says Lightshed’s Greenfield

More #1: NBCUniversal’s Peacock Will Look More Like Cable Than Like Netflix

More #2: NBCUniversal’s Peacock ends phase one of the streaming era; phase two will test theory of disruptive innovation

More #3: ‘Safety net’: To prop up Peacock, NBC uses the power of its existing TV, ad sales business

Hollywood-backed Quibi thinks you’ll pay for its video bites

Key details for Quibi:
1) 
Quibi is short for “quick bites”
2) Launching April 6th
3) The target audience is 25-35-year-olds
4) $1.4B in capital raised
5) 230 employees

Key details for Quibi revenue model:
1) $5/month w/ ads; $8/month without ads
2) 1 pre-roll ad per episode (<5m video = 10s ad; 5-10m video = 15s ad)
3) 2.5m of advertising per hour
4) 20M subscribers by 2024
5) 75% of users will have ad-supported tier
6) They are seeking $15-25M upfront advertising commitments from companies such as P&G
7) $150M+ in upfront ad commitments

Quick math on Quibi advertising:
1) 20m paid users by 2024
2) 50% w/ ads
3) 15m paid users w/ ads
4) 2.5m of advertising per hour
5) $35 CPM for 15s ad
6) 10 15s spots/hour
7) $0.40 in ad revenue/hour
8) $665M revenue from advertising
9) $44.33/user/year in ad revenue
10) $3.69/user/month in ad revenue
11) 127 hours/year of viewing w/ ads/user
12) 11 hours/month of viewing w/ ads/user

Key details for Quibi content:
1) 7-10m 
per episode
2) 7K pieces of content at launch
3) 25+ episodes added daily
4) $100K/minute average development cost w/ a maximum of $6M/hour

Worth the time: Quibi is Offering Something Impressive, But Does Anyone Want It? h/t: Lucas Quagliata (a SOTS reader)

Video: Quibi streaming mobile video service raises $400 million ahead of launch

More: Quibi unveils “Turnstyle,” its flagship mobile video format

NBCUniversal Aims to Merge TV and Digital Ad Buying With New Tech

The big news: NBCUniversal announced the One Platform, which is meant to offer a single platform to buy across TV and digital.

Quote from Mark Marshall – President of Advertising Sales @ NBCUniversal:
“The idea of demo-based buying started in 1962… To say that we are still transacting TV in the same way today seems crazy.”

Key details for the One Platform:
1) 
Initial launch in 2020 w/ single measurement dashboard
2) Three years to complete
3) 300+ ad sales engineering and platform employees are working on it

TV share of video advertising according to eMarketer:
1) 
2019P – 66%
2) 
2020P – 63%
3) 
2021P – 59%
4) 
2022P – 56%
5) 
2023P – 54%

Flashback #1: Inside The Agency Turf War Over Connected TV

What happens next: TV Buyers are being rebranded as video investment teams, and digital buyers are going to school on TV metrics.

The future: The term “digital buyer” and “TV buyer” will go away, and there will just be “video buyers.” Everyone cannot be great at everything, so some buyers will be stronger in TV or digital, but the future is cross screen.

Who wins: The winners will be whichever side learns the other side’s piece first and integrates it into a holistic video offering.

Flashback #2: Understanding Campaign Audiences Across TV + Digital

Unique audience for 18-49 demo according to Nielsen:
1) TV-only – 59%
2) Cross screen – 27%
3) Digital-only – 14%

More #1: NBCUniversal’s Ryan McConville Is De-Fragmenting The Future Of TV

More #2: Let’s get back to the human at the center of TV advertising

More #3: TV Is The Metaphor For Video’s Future

Peak TV Update: Scripted Originals Top 500 in 2019, FX Says

Original scripted shows by year (% change YoY):
1) 2009 – 210
2) 2010 – 216 (↑ 3%)
3) 2011 – 266 (↑ 23%)
4) 2012 – 288 (↑ 8%)
5) 2013 – 349 (↑ 21%)
6) 2014 – 389 (↑ 11%)
7) 2015 – 422 (↑ 8%)
8) 2016 – 455 (↑ 8%)
9) 2017 – 487 (↑ 7%)
10) 2018 – 495 (↑ 2%)
11) 2019 – 532 (↑ 7%)

Original shows/movies released by Netflix in the U.S. (YoY growth):
1) 
2018 – 240
2) 
2019 – 371 (↑ 55%)

Video: What budget?  TV costs hit an all-time high.

More #1: Record number of original TV shows created in 2019

More #2: ‘It’s an Explosion’: Inside the Rising Costs of Making a Scripted TV Series

More #3: Is this the year that TV broke TV? The great fragmentation and why peak TV didn’t die