The difference in Nielsen HH rating between the Super Bowl and #1 primetime show, according to Michael Mulvihill:
1) 1969 –↑ 13%
2) 1979 –↑ 54%
3) 1989 –↑ 70%
4) 1999 –↑ 97%
5) 2009 –↑ 192%
6) 2019 –↑ 414%
Our prediction: Total viewership grows 1.7% YoY (↑ 1.7M) to 103M.
WTF is the metaverse???Wikipedia defines the metaverse as a collective virtual shared space, created by the convergence of virtually enhanced physical reality and physically persistent virtual space, including the sum of all virtual worlds, augmented reality, and the internet.
Why this matters: Global revenue for video games is already double the size for music and growing at a faster rate. Imagine how large that market could be if/when this happened!
Big news #1: Ampersand (formerly NCC Media) launched the AND platform offering planning and measurement for advanced TV campaigns.
Key details for Ampersands AND platform:
1) Currently a managed service 2) Self-serve software launching in late 2020 3) 85M households 4) 120 cable networks 5) Set-top box data from 40M households (Comcast, Cox, and Charter) 6) 80 pre-loaded audience segments
Smart move: Both are a signal that the silos separating video advertising are coming down, and the future for $114B+ in video advertising is cross screen and audience-based.
Quote from Nick Troiano – CEO @ Cadent: “This is really an extension to what we’ve been offering…It’s an acceleration to finding those audiences in other platforms, which is necessary for massive dollars to ultimately shift to advanced TV.”
Share of projected linear TV spend using advanced TV data according to FreeWheel:
1) 2019 – 41%
2) 2020 – 47%
Peacock is launching w/ three pricing tiers according to Variety:
1) Free – Ad-supported w/ limited programming 2) Premium ($5) – Ad-supported w/ access to a larger content library 3) Premium + Ad-Free ($10) – Full access to programming (600 movies + 400 TV series)
Peacock launch details according to Axios:
1) Xfinity customers –April 15th 2) National launch –July 15th
Ad minutes per hour, according to NBCUniversal:
1) Linear TV – 16-20
2) Digital video – 8
3) Peacock – 5
Quick math on the advertising model for Peacock:
1) Ad minutes/hour – 5
2) 30s spots/hour – 10 3) Ad revenue/user/month – ≈ $5.20 (see below) 3) CPM $ – ≈$30 4) $/spot – $0.03 5) Spots/month – 173 6) The service hits the revenue target at17 hours/viewer/month
Quote from Linda Yaccarino – Chairman of Advertising & Partnerships @ NBCUniversal: “With Peacock, we’re giving consumers the free service they want and advertisers the reach and scale they desperately need—this is the best thing to happen to everyone’s screens in a long time…Peacock marks a doubling-down on the ad-supported ecosystem, and the next phase of NBCUniversal’s One Platform offering.”
Key details for Quibi revenue model: 1) $5/month w/ ads; $8/month without ads 2)1 pre-roll ad per episode (<5m video = 10s ad; 5-10m video = 15s ad) 3) 2.5m of advertising per hour 4) 20M subscribers by 2024 5) 75%of users will have ad-supported tier 6) They are seeking $15-25M upfront advertising commitments from companies such as P&G 7)$150M+ in upfront ad commitments
Quick math on Quibi advertising: 1) 20m paid users by 2024 2)50% w/ ads 3)15m paid users w/ ads 4)2.5m of advertising per hour 5)$35 CPM for 15s ad 6)10 15s spots/hour 7)$0.40 in ad revenue/hour 8) $665M revenue from advertising 9) $44.33/user/year in ad revenue 10) $3.69/user/month in ad revenue 11) 127 hours/year of viewing w/ ads/user 12) 11 hours/month of viewing w/ ads/user
Key details for Quibi content:
1) 7-10m per episode 2) 7K pieces of content at launch 3) 25+ episodes added daily 4) $100K/minute average development cost w/ a maximum of $6M/hour
What happens next: TV Buyers are being rebranded as video investment teams, and digital buyers are going to school on TV metrics.
The future: The term “digital buyer” and “TV buyer” will go away, and there will just be “video buyers.” Everyone cannot be great at everything, so some buyers will be stronger in TV or digital, but the future is cross screen.
Who wins: The winners will be whichever side learns the other side’s piece first and integrates it into a holistic video offering.