Wireless Industry Survey Shows Huge Yearly Increase In Mobile Data Usage

Mobile data usage is exploding as U.S. carriers start to roll out 5G services.

Mobile data usage in the U.S., according to The CTIA (YoY growth):
1) 
2017 – 12.9T megabytes
2) 2018 – 28.6T megabytes (↑ 82%)

U.S. smartphone users:
1) 
2009 – 50M
2) 
2018 – 285M

Why does 5G matter?  Fifth-generation wireless is coming with speeds 10–100X faster than we have today.

Flashback: How 5G wireless will change pay-TV industry virtually overnight

What this means for the pay-TV industry: More competition. Cable companies are going into wireless (see Comcast) and wireless companies are going into pay-TV (see AT&T).

Big threat: If a wireless company like Verizon is able to offer fast home broadband delivered via mobile, then the number of home broadband options jumps from 1-2 to 4-5 overnight.

Remember: The majority of profit for pay-TV providers comes from selling broadband rather than the actual pay-TV service.

More #1: Where 5G’s Impact Is Already Being Felt

More #2: Here’s what to expect from the Big 4 carriers as Verizon, AT&T, and others battle for 5G dominance

More #3: The war for your internet connection

The Great Race to Rule Streaming TV

Worth the time: Both this piece from the New York Times and REDEF are great deep dives on the streaming video space.

The bottom line: The force driving premium video content is similar to social media – the pursuit and monetization of our attention.

The end game and business models for each player will continue to look different.

Old question: Does this show deserve a primetime spot?

New question: Will this show drive subscriptions?

Interesting point: We spend significant time talking about the number of paid streaming subscriptions that people will sign up for, but very little talking about content discovery in a world of near-limitless choice.

Time spent making a content selection before abandoning according to Nielsen:
1) 
18+ – 7.4 minutes
2) 18-34 – 9.4 minutes
3) 35-54 – 8.4 minutes
4) 50+ – 5 minutes

Top methods for discovering streaming video content:
1) 58% 
tune in to favorite channels
2) 44% scan through channels
3) 39% check descriptions from the guide/menu
4) 33% browse menus of various services
5) 26% use recommendations

More #1: The Real Future of TV?

More #2: The war for streaming video has officially begun 

VidCon at 10: How a “Thrown-Together” Event Gave Rise to the Influencer Era

VidCon attendance by year:
1) 
2010 – 1,400
2) 
2019 – 75,000+

What is VidCon?  VidCon is an online video conference held annually since 2010.  Its primary focus is original content native to digital platforms such as YouTube.

What are the top platforms at VidCon?
1) 
YouTube
2) Instagram
3) Facebook
4) TikTok
5) Snap
6) Twitter

What do influencers want from a platform? Influencers want to build an audience and then tools to help monetize that audience.

Key updates from the influencer wars:
1) 
Youtube is launching additional monetization options such as subscriptions
2) Facebook is also offering updates to its subscription offering along with custom video ad breaks

More #1: TikTok Stars Are Preparing to Take Over the Internet

More #2: A Decade After The Basement Ballroom, VidCon Has Become Essential In Influencer World

‘Friends’ to Move to HBO Max, WarnerMedia’s New Streaming Service

Key details for WarnerMedia’s streaming service:
1) It will be called HBO Max
2) Early 2020 is anticipated launch
3) Friends will be moving from Netflix to HBO Max in 2020.
4) Friends is the 2nd most-watched show on Netflix according to Nielsen

Comparison of annual deal size for Friends between Netflix and Warner:
1) Netflix deal #1 (2014–18) — $30M
2) Netflix deal #2 (2019) — $80M
3) HBO Max deal #1 (2020-24) — $85M

Quick math #1 for Friends and HBO Max:
1) Domestic subscriber target — 75M
2) Annual cost to license Friends — $85M
3) HBO Max would be paying $0.09 per month for each domestic subscriber to license the show.

Quick math #2 for Friends and HBO Max:
1) Annual cost to license Friends — $85M
2) # of seasons — 10
3) # of episodes — 236
4) $/season to license — $8.5M
5) $/episode to license — $360K

Flashback: Why ‘Friends’ is still important to content providers 14 years later

Video: WarnerMedia Unveils New Streaming Service ‘HBO Max’

More #1: What If WarnerMedia Got a Re-Do on the HBO Max Reveal?

More #2: AT&T rolls out a new, super-charged streaming service with HBO shows, ‘Friends’ and more

More #3: What’s Coming to HBO Max: Shows, Movies Announced for WarnerMedia Streaming Service (So Far)

Tubi Tops 20M Monthly Viewers In AVOD Race For Audience, Ads

Big news: Tubi has passed 20M monthly viewers for its ad-supported streaming service.

What is Tubi? Tubi is an ad-supported streaming network with 15K+ TV shows and movies sourced through 200+licensing partners. Think a free Netflix supported by ads.

Quick math on user engagement for Tubi:
1) 20M monthly viewers
2) 94M hours of content consumed in May
3) 44K hours of content
4) 4.7 hours/month/viewer
5) 2,200 views/month for the average piece of content

Quick math on advertising model for Tubi:
1) 10 ads per hour
2) $25 CPM
3) $0.25 per user/hour
4) 94M hours/month
5) $23.5M in revenue/month
6) $1.18 in revenue/user/month

More #1: Inside the race to own free streaming video

More #2: Free TV With Ads Is Digital Media’s Old New Idea

More #3: Q&A: Xumo CEO talks user growth, tech stacks and magic Elixir

‘Rockonomics’ Review: Making Money in the Music Biz

On-demand audio streams according to Nielsen (YoY growth):
1) 
2018 – 261.0B
2) 
2019 – 333.5B (↑ 28%)

Total album sales (YoY growth):
1) 
2018 – 63.6M
2) 
2019 – 51.6M (↓ 19%)

Share of album sales (% of total):
1) 
CD – 24.8M (48%)
2) Digital – 19.1M (37%)
3) Vinyl – 7.7M (15%)

Top 5 artists by total streams:
1) 
Drake – 2.7B
2) 
Ariana Grande – 2.6B
3) 
Post Malone – 2.4B
4) 
Billie Eilish – 2.2B
5) 
Juice WRLD – 1.9B

Apple Music subscribers (YoY growth):
1) 
May 2018 – 50M
2) 
June 2019 – 60M (↑ 20%)

Total paying subscribers:
1) 
Spotify – 100M
2)
 Apple Music – 60M

Video: The growth of Apple Music

FYI: If you are over 40 30, then check out TikTok.

More #1: Taylor Swift’s Feud With Scooter Braun Spotlights Musicians’ Struggles to Own Their Work

More #2: Memes Are the New Pop Stars: How TikTok Became the Future of the Music Industry

More #3: A Farewell for iTunes

FreeWheel: Q1-2019 Video Monetization Report

Key findings according to FreeWheel:
1) 60% of all “advanced TV” buys will be audience targeted by 2020 citing increased return on marketing spend.

2) Audience targeted video advertising is growing at 2X the rate of video advertising as a whole

Ad view growth:
1) 
Video ad views (all) - ↑ 20%
2) 
Video ad views (audience targeted) - ↑ 48%

Share by format:
1) Full episodes (>5m) - 57%
2) Live – 36%
3) Clips (<5m) – 7%

YoY growth by format:
1) Live – ↑ 45%
2) Full episodes (>5m) – ↑ 11%
3) Clips (<5m) – ↓ 9%

Share by device:
1) 
CTV/OTT – 45%
2) 
Mobile – 24%
3) 
STB VOD – 20%
4) 
Desktop – 11%

YoY growth by device:
1) 
CTV/OTT – ↑ 44%
2) 
Mobile – ↑ 18%
3) STB VOD – ↓ 10%
4) 
Desktop – ↓ 16%

Average video ad pod length (YoY change):
1) 
2018-Q1 – 110s
2) 
2019-Q1 – 96s (↓ 13%)

Trump’s general election brawl to drive record advertising

Big news: The video ad market for politics is expected to grow by $2B (↑ 50%) between 2018 and 2020!!!  The total spend will approach $6B during the 2020 cycle accounting for ≈ 4-5% of the total U.S. video ad market and 17% of the entire growth.

What is different about this report?  Our team at Cross Screen Media partnered with the team at Advertising Analytics to build out the first estimate in politics that was video only.  This difference matters because we are now able to estimate how much money is spent purely on persuading voters and the answer is a whole lot of 💰

Quote from Kyle Roberts – CEO @ Advertising Analytics:
“This is the first time that digital persuasion video has been isolated and aligned, meaning we can compare what’s happening on TV directly to what’s happening online,”

Presidential cycle political video ad spending according to Advertising Analytics/Cross Screen Media (% growth):
1) 
2016 – $2.2B
2) 
2020P – $5.9B (↑ 170%)

Midterm cycle political video ad spending (% growth):
1) 
2014 – $1.6B
2) 
2018 – $3.9B (↑ 142%)

Share by platform in 2020P:
1) 
Local Broadcast TV – 55% (↓ 9%)
2) Digital Video – 27% (↑ 8%)
3) Local Cable TV – 17% (↑ 1%)

Local broadcast TV spend by cycle (% growth):
1) 
2014 – $1.3B
2) 
2016 – $1.7B (↑ 33%)
3) 2018 – $2.5B (↑ 46%)
4) 2020P – $3.3B (↑ 29%)

Local cable TV spend by cycle (% growth):
1) 
2014 – $320M
2) 
2016 – $450M (↑ 41%)
3) 2018 – $660M (↑ 47%)
4) 2020P – $1.0B (↑ 55%)

Local cable share of TV only spend by cycle:
1) 
2014 – 20%
2) 
2016 – 21%
3) 
2018 – 21%
4)
 2020P – 24%

Digital video spend by cycle (% growth):
1) 2018 – $740M
2) 2020P – $1.6B (↑ 116%)

Digital share for presidential for primary vs. general:
1) 
General election – 30%
2) 
Primary election – 29%

Why this matters: If you believe the news, then the Democrat primary for president will be fueled by younger (digital) voters, but we project that Democrat campaigns will spend 71% of their persuasion budget on local broadcast/cable TV ads.  If this is correct, then they are making a bet that the majority of turnout is older (TV).

Estimated number of TV ad airings by cycle (% growth):
1) 2018 – 5.5M
2) 
2020P – 8.0M (↑ 46%)

The big question: Do you want to sell more political ads in 2020?  If yes, then download our FREE 10-page report and let’s get started!

Podcast: Does Political Advertising Move the Needle?

More #1: Kantar study: Brands will struggle to compete with political ad spending during 2020 US election

More #2: Political Audience Viewership Of First Democratic Debate

More #3: Dems prepare 9-figure ad onslaught to blunt Trump’s head start

Why NBC’s ‘The Office’ takeback could be the beginning of consumer chaos


NBCUniversal’s 
upcoming streaming service will be the exclusive home for The Office when it launches in January 2021.

Final offers for annual streaming rights to The Office:
1) NBCUniversal – $100M
2) Netflix – $90M

What does this mean for Netflix?  Not much.  The Office has been a popular show for Netflix since 2011 but should have little impact on subscriber growth.

What does this mean for NBCUniversal? TBD whether this will drive streaming subscriptions since consumers are starting to hit a ceiling.  We believe that the market for ad-supported streaming is growing under the radar and could be a major revenue driver for NBCUniversal.

💰Quote from Scott Porch – Writer @ Decider:
“The Office is regarded as one of the most popular shows on Netflix, but that’s a bit like deeming cottage cheese one of the most popular items on Ruby Tuesday’s salad bar. It’s popular, sure, but it’s not the reason you’re there.”

Video: Netflix VP: We started original content because of the streaming wars

More #1: The hand-wringing over Netflix losing ‘The Office’ ignores its biggest driver of subscriber growth

More #2: Netflix CCO Ted Sarandos describes the company’s use of data

More #3: Netflix’s Ted Sarandos Weighs In On Streaming Wars, Agency Production, Big Tech Breakups, M&A Outlook

TV watchers are facing a ‘paradox of choice’, Nielsen finds

Average time spent w/ video in 2019-Q1 according to Nielsen (YoY growth):
1) 2019-Q1 – 5h 46m (↓ 3%)
2) 2018-Q1 – 5h 57m



Average time spent w/ media (YoY growth):

1) 2019-Q1 – 11h 27m (↑ 3%)
2) 2018-Q1 – 11h 06m

Average time spent w/ video by screen (% of total):
1) Live TV  –  4h 27m (77%)
2) OTT/Connected TV – 0h 54m (16%)
3) Smartphone  – 0h 10m (3%)
4) Desktop/Laptop  – 0h 10m (3%)
5) Tablet  – 0h 5m (1%)
 

Daily hours of usage by age group:
1) 
18–34 – 9h 16m
2) 
35–49 – 11h 33m
3) 
50–64 – 12h 51m
4) 
65+  – 12h 41m
5) 
18+  – 11h 27m

% change since 2010 in time spent with TV (h/t: @ballmatthew):

1) 12–17 - ↓ 67%
2) 
18–24 –  ↓ 62%
3) 
25–34 -↓ 51%
4) 
2–11 -↓ 47%
5) 
35–49  – ↓ 29%
6) 
2+  – ↓ 24%
7) 
50–64 - ↓ 8%
8) 
65+  – ↑ 4%