Tokyo Olympics to Open July 23 of Next Year, Local Committee Says

Key details for the re-scheduled Olympics:
1) 
The opening ceremony is set for July 23rd, 2021
2) 
Tokyo is 13 hours ahead of the east coast
3) Comcast is paying $4.4B for the media rights between 2014-20 or ≈ $1.1B for each biennial event
4) 7,000 hours of content will be aired through broadcast/streaming
5) 90% of ad inventory has already been sold accounting for $1.25B
6)
 Ad packages range from $1M to $100M+

More: Olympics, politics holding up falling TV empire

Coronavirus Ad Spend Impact: Buy-Side

Share of buy-side marketers making Q2 ad spend changes according to the IAB:
1) 
Adjusted ad spend – 46%
2) 
Paused – 24%
3) 
TBD – 16%
4) 
No adjustment – 14%

Ad spend impact compared to the original plan (March/April):
1) 
Digital video – ↓ 37%
2) Linear TV – ↓ 41%

Other (smart) tactical changes:
1) 
Audience targeting – ↑ 38%
2) CTV/OTT – ↑ 35%

YoY ad spend change for 2020 according to MAGNA:
1) 
Digital video – ↑ 8%
2) National TV – ↓ 13%
3) Local TV (excluding politics) – ↓ 14%
4) Local TV (including politics) – ↑ 1%

Potential impacts by vertical according to MAGNA:

Ad spend change by vertical during financial crisis according to Kantar:
1) 
Pharmaceuticals – ↑ 4%
2) Food & Beverage – ↑ 4%
3) Telecom – ↑ 2%
4) Restaurants – ↓ 3%
5) Personal Care – ↓ 8%
6) Direct Response – ↓ 12%
7) Local services – ↓ 13%
8) Retail – ↓ 15%
9) Financial Services – ↓ 18%
10) Automotive – ↓ 23%

Comparison to 2008-09 financial crisis:
1) 
Substantially more negative – 44%
2) 
Somewhat more negative – 30%
3) 
Roughly the same – 9%
4) 
Somewhat less negative – 14%
5) 
Substantially less negative – 4%

Global GDP vs. global ad spend according to MAGNA:

Consumer spending vs. ad spend according to Kantar:

Video: How Virus Will Hit Ad Spending: SMI’s Fennessey

Podcast: GroupM’s Brian Wieser: ‘Every brand should figure out how to be useful’

More #1: Advertising Economy 2021: Recession or Depression?

More #2: Coronavirus Quarantine Boosts Streaming Video, but Not Advertising Yet

More #3: Look Who Top 60 TV Advertisers Are: What Happens in a Pandemic/Recession?

FreeWheel: 2019-Q4 U.S. video marketplace report 

Ad view growth, according to FreeWheel:
1) 
Video views – ↑ 17%
2) 
Video ad views (all) - ↑ 34%
3) 
Video ad views (audience targeted) – ↑ 48%
4) 
Video ad load – ↑ 15%

Share by format (ad views):
1) Full episodes (>5m) - 50%
2) Live – 43%
3) Clips (<5m) – 7%

YoY growth by format (ad views):
1) Live – ↑ 67%
2) Full episodes (>5m) – ↓ 2%
3) Clips (<5m) – ↓ 7%

Ad minutes/hour for streaming video that is “just right”:
1) Gen Z – 10.6
2) Millennials – 9.9
3) Gen X – 9.8
4) Matures – 7.2
5) Boomers – 6.7

Share of CTV ads by platforms:
1) Roku – 42%
2) Amazon – 24%
3) Smart TVs – 12%
4) Gaming Consoles – 9%
5) Apple TV – 9%
6) Chromecast – 3%
7) Other – 1%

The drive-in, relic of yesterday, finds itself suited to now

Movie theater locations by type (% of total):
1) 
Indoor – 5,500 (95%)
2) Drive-in – 300 (5%)

≈ 96% of indoor movie theatres have closed across the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

Last weekend, 25 of the top 30 grossing movie theatres were drive-ins!

Memories!  Mr. Screens spent many a summer night at the Belmont Auto Theatre in Dayton, Ohio, before it closed in 1997.  The benefits of picture quality and overall movie experience that a modern theatre offers are unmistakable.  Still, there is something about being a kid and running around with your friends while a movie is playing under the stars.

Hopefully, we are not couped up through the summer, but if we are, then do yourself a favor and pack the kids into the car (with snacks) and make the drive out to your closest drive-in theatre before they are all gone.

More: The 14 Coolest Drive-In Movie Theaters in America

Sports betting short term pain could be long term gain

Sports betting on NCAA March Madness (YoY growth) according to the American Gaming Association:
1) 2019 – $8.5B
2) 
2020P – $10.0B ( 18%)

Quote from Chris Ripley – CEO @ Sinclair Broadcast Group:
“Sports betting we think will have large new revenue pools associated with them. We think ultimately they will be bigger than advertising — not as big as subscriptions — but it also helps viewership, which helps advertising and viewership, which helps you with your MVPD negotiations…”

Estimated sports betting wagers (YoY growth) according to Activate Consulting:
1) 
2017 – $5B
2) 2018 – $7B (↑ 40%)
3) 2019P – $13B (↑ 86%)
4) 2020P – $31B (↑ 138%)
5) 2021P – $63B (↑ 103%)
6) 2022P – $102B (↑ 62%)
7) 2023P – $149B (↑ 46%)

What the future could look like with betting information integrated into the game itself.

Why this matters: Nielsen estimates that TV rights fees will increase by 18%, and 32% of NFL bets are placed during the game.

Quote from Scott Warfield – Managing Director of Gaming @ Nascar:
“If we can get our fans to watch for another 15, 30, 45 minutes, obviously, what does that do for Nielsen ratings and then our next TV negotiations in ’23, ’24?…It’s all about engagement.”

Interest in sports betting if legalized according to Civic Science:
1) 25-34 – 29%
2) 18-24 – 27%
3) 35-54 – 22%
4) 55+ – 14%
5) 18+ – 21%


More #1: Gambling will overwhelm sports media in 2020

More #2: Barstool and Penn National execs share new details about their blockbuster $163 million deal, from the first meeting in July to plans for a new betting platform

More #3: Wall Street Wades Into Sports Gambling as Legalization Spreads

So we’re working from home. Can the internet handle it?

Big question #1: Will our broadband infrastructure keep up with the increased demand?

Quote from Tom Wheeler – Former Chairman @ the Federal Communications Commission (and a proud Buckeye):
“We just don’t know” how the infrastructure will fare…What is sufficient bandwidth for a couple of home computers for a husband and wife may not be sufficient when you add students who are going to class all day long operating from home.”

Quick answer: According to Ookla, our broadband speeds are holding for now.

Top broadband providers (% of total) according to Leichtman Research Group:
1) 
Comcast – 28.6M (28%)
2) Charter – 26.7M (26%)
3) AT&T – 15.4M (15%)
4) Verizon – 7.0M (7%)
5) Cox – 5.2M (5%)
6) Other – 18.4M (19%)
7) Total – 101.2M

Netflix data usage per hour:
1) 
Standard definition – 1 GB
2) High definition – 3 GB

Big question #2: More than 20M Americans do not have access to high-speed internet.  What impact is that going to have on these families?

Share of school-age children by household income without high-speed internet according to Pew:
1) < $30K – 35%
2) $30K – $75K – 17%
3) $75K+ – 6%
4) All – 15%

People lacking high-speed internet according to BroadbandNow Research:
1) Texas – 4.2M
2) California – 2.4M
3) Arizona – 1.8M
4) Oklahoma – 1.7M
5) Florida – 1.6M

Video: AT&T CEO: Working from home is changing internet traffic

NBCSW will broadcast video game simulations of Wizards and Capitals games

The NBA and NHL are back….in video game form.  The Washington Capitals/Wizards will play out their remaining schedule with one-hour simulations in NBA 2K20 and NHL 20.

Mr. Screens Bradley Beal has been playing a ton of video games, so the Wizards are in good shape!

Is this eSport’s big break?  There is an obvious long term trend that may be accelerating due to the homebound population and a lack of live sports.

Evidence #1: Investors are paying up to $60M for 1 of 20 Call of Duty franchises.

Evidence #2:  YouTube is paying $160M in media rights fees over three years to Activision Blizzard.

Video: NBA 2K20 Gameplay – Washington Wizards vs Charlotte Hornets (12 Min. Quarters) – NBA 2K20 PS4

More #1: The Perfect Storm for eSports

More #2: NFL, 2K Games Ink Multi-Year Partnership for Numerous Future Titles

How Coronavirus Is Impacting TV Viewership: The Good And The Bad

Not surprising #1: Cable news viewership is skyrocketing as more people find their daily lives impacted. Live sports typically account for ≈ 6% of viewership, and its absence is being filled with cable news (↑ 6%).

Cable news share of total TV viewership according to Nielsen:
1) 
2019 – 11%
2) 
Week of 3/8 – 17%

Not surprising #2: Nielsen estimates that sheltering at home could lead to a 60% increase in time spent with media!

Total viewership for broadcast TV (% change) according to The Hollywood Reporter:
1) 
Week of 3/5 – 16.5M
2) 
Week of 3/12 – 17.6M (↑ 7%)

Contagion shows the lengths people go to watch a movie they can’t stream

Mrs. Screens and I watched Contagion a few weeks ago and yikes…

Ranking for Contagion amongst Warner Bros. films:
1) December – #270
2) March – #2

Good news America: Washington, DC tops the index chart for Contagion movie searches!

Video: Contagion (2011) Official Exclusive 1080p HD Trailer

More #1: 13 movies and shows to watch during your coronavirus quarantine

More #2: Outbreak’ Enters Netflixs Top 10: Here Are 6 Quarantine-Ready Movies To Stream

NBCUniversal Breaks Theatrical Window, Will Make Movies Available On Demand Immediately

Big news for Little Screens #1: NBCUniversal is moving upcoming/recent movie releases directly to on-demand.  Each rental will cost $20 for a 48-hour rental period.

The movies include:
1) 
Trolls World Tour
2) The Hunt
3) The Invisible Man
4) Emma

Standard theatrical release flow according to LightShed Partners:
1) Theatre – 0 – 2.5 months
2) DVD/VOD/rental – 3 – 6 months
3)
 Premium pay-TV (HBO, etc.) – 6 – 24 months
4)
 Network TV – 24 – 36 months

Quick math on pay-per-view potential for Trolls World Tour:
1) 
Domestic box office revenue for Trolls (2016) – $154M
2) 
Average ticket price – $8.65
3) 
Estimated # of tickets sold – 17.8M
4) 
PPV rental price for Trolls World Tour – $20
5) 
PPV rentals to reach Trolls (2016) box office – 7.7M
6) 
Viewers/HH to create value over tickets – 2.3

Quick math on the largest PPV event in U.S. history (Mayweather/Pacquiao):
1) 
Total revenue – $400M
2) 
PPV purchases – 4.4M
3) 
AVG purchase price – $91

Smart: The LightShed team broke down how many PPV rentals a major release (Star Wars, etc.) would need to generate comparable profit to the box office.

Why this matters: Last weekend’s box office total was the lowest since 1994, and Wall Street has responded by hammering cinema stocks.

Big news for Little Screens #2: Frozen 2 is arriving on Disney+ three months early!

More #1: Regal Cinemas Closing All U.S. Theaters Due to Coronavirus

More #2: Hollywood Could Take $20 Billion Hit From Coronavirus Impact