Nielsen: 120.6 million US TV homes for the 2019-2020 season

U.S. TV households by year (YoY growth) according to Nielsen:
1) 
2008-09 – 114.5M
2) 2009-10 – 114.9M (↑ 0%)
3) 2010-11 – 115.9M (↑ 1%)
4) 2011-12 – 114.7M (↓ 1%)
5) 2012-13 – 114.2M (↑ 0%)
6) 2013-14 – 115.6M (↑ 1%)
7) 2014-15 – 116.4M (↑ 1%)
8) 2015-16 – 116.4M (↑ 0%)
9) 2016-17 – 118.4M (↑ 2%)
10) 2017-18 – 119.6M (↑ 1%)
11) 2018-19 – 119.9M (↑ 0%)
12) 2019-20 – 120.6M (↑ 1%)

Share of U.S. households with TV:
1) 
2018 – 95.9%
2) 
2019 – 96.1%

Share of linear TV viewing by age group:
1) 
2-17 – 9%
2) 
18-24 – 3%
3) 
25-34 – 8%
4) 
35-49 – 18%
5) 
50-54 – 9%
6) 
55+ – 53%

55+ share of linear TV viewing by year:
1) 
2012 – 35%
2) 
2013 – 38%
3) 
2014 – 39%
4) 
2015 – 42%
5) 
2016 – 44%
6) 
2017 – 47%
7) 
2018 – 50%
8) 
2019 – 53%

More: US TV homes, devices, and services: 2019

TV Networks Stuff in More Commercials Despite Vows to Cut Back

Shocking!  Many TV networks continue to increase ad loads despite public promises to do otherwise.

Why this is happening: In order, to maintain/grow revenue while ratings are down you can either increase the cost of advertising (CPMs) and/or you can increase the number of ads that run during a program.  Many networks are finding it easier to increase ad loads than ad rates.

Quote from Michael Nathanson – Analyst @ MoffettNathanson:
“Look at the decline in ratings…Everyone’s got pressure to make their quarterly numbers. Long-term, it’s a very bad decision, but you don’t want to miss your numbers and have your stock go down.”

Ad minutes per hour by network according to MoffettNathanson:
1) 
Viacom – 14.3
2) 
A+E – 14.0
3) 
AMC Networks – 13.0
4) 
Turner – 12.5
5) 
NBCUniversal – 12.0
6) 
Discovery – 11.6
7) 
Disney – 10.5
8) 
Fox – 10.4

Flashback #1: Hulu cuts ad breaks by more than half

Hulu commercial break lengths (% change):
1) 
Old – 180 – 240s
2) 
New – 90s (↓ 50-63%)

Flashback #2: YouTube begins showing twice as many ‘pre-roll’ ads

Key findings from NBCUniversal on the impact of reduced ad load:
1) Ad Likability — ↑ 38%
2) Likelihood to search for a brand — ↑ 39%

Here’s How We’d Handle the Rollout for Apple TV+ 

Key details for Apple TV+:
1) 
No ads
2) Available in 100+ countries
3) A-list content creators (see below)
4) ≈ $9.99 per month after free trial
5) $6B+ in original content spend

Content producers showcased at the event:
1) 
Oprah
2) Steven Spielberg
3) Jennifer Aniston
4) Reese Witherspoon
5) Steve Carell
6) J.J. Abrams
7) Big Bird

Flashback: We still don’t know what’s in Apple’s streaming service, how much it will cost, or why we should pay for it

The big picture: Apple is trying to grow its services business to $50B+ per year by 2020 to offset slowing hardware sales.

Quick math on the potential opportunity for Apple TV+:
1) Global Apple customers – ≈ 900M
2) Conversion rate – 10%
3) The potential customer base for Apple TV+ – 90M
4) Monthly subscription cost – $10
5)
 Revenue/month – $900M
6) Revenue/year – $10.8B

Apple services include:
1) 
Apple TV+
2) Apple Music
3) Apple Arcade gaming service
4) Apple News+
5) iCloud

Video: Apple TV+ Is Golden Goose While Card Will Be Uphill Battle, Analyst Ives Says

More #1: Apple splashes $6bn on new shows in streaming wars

More #2: Apple is the only media company rich enough to beat Netflix — but does it care enough to try?

More #3: Apple Launches New TV App, Providing Access to Over 150 Video Apps Including HBO, Hulu, CBS, Showtime, Starz, ESPN and Amazon Prime Video

How Conan O’Brien and Other Top Hosts Are Tapping Into the Podcast Revolution

Weekly podcast listeners according to Edison Research (YoY growth):
1) 2013 – 19M
2) 
2014 – 22M (↑ 16%)
3) 2015 – 28M (↑ 27%)
4) 2016 – 36M (↑ 29%)
5) 2017 – 42M (↑ 17%)
6) 2018 – 48M (↑ 14%)
7) 2019 – 62M (↑ 29%)

Podcast advertising revenue by year (YoY growth) according to PwC:
1) 2015 – $106M
2) 
2016 – $169M (↑ 59%)
3) 2017 – $314M (↑ 86%)
4) 2018 – $479M (↑ 53%)
5) 2019P – $679M (↑ 42%)
6) 2020P – $863M (↑ 27%)
7) 2021P – $1.0B (↑ 21%)

Advertising CPMs for linear radio vs. podcast:
1) Podcast – $10 – $50
2) 
Linear Radio – $2 – $3

Podcast universe and growth:
1) 700K+ total series
2) 2-3K new series launched each month

Podcast: Americans’ Media Habits Continue to Shift

More #1: Podcasts get that VC cash

More #2: Spotify’s big bet on podcasts is starting to pay off

More #3: Apple Plans to Bankroll Original Podcasts to Fend Off Rivals

Streaming Video Will Soon Look Like the Bad Old Days of TV

The big question: Are we going to see video re-bundled where the only thing that has changed is the method of distribution (digital vs. linear)?

Key point from Matthew Ball: One thing that digital distribution has had zero impact on is the cost to create premium video content.  The increased demand from new players (Netflix, Amazon, etc.) has driven the cost up.

Current scenario from Peter Csathy:
1) The average cable bill is $100
2) 
The goal is to save $20 to make the switch worthwhile
3) Leaving $80 to spend on video services
4) You still want live channels, so you subscribe to Hulu Live @ $45
5) 
Leaving $35 to spend

Remaining choices for your $35:
1) 
Netflix – $13
2) 
Disney+ – $7
3) 
Apple TV+ – ≈ $10
4) 
HBO Max – ≈ $16

Netflix U.S. subscribers per year according to eMarketer:
1) 2019 – 159M
2)
 2020P – 166M
3)
 2021P – 171M
4)
 2022P – 175M
5)
 2023P – 178M

Streaming video viewers by provider according to eMarketer:
1) Netflix – 159M
2) Amazon Prime – 97M
3) Hulu – 76M
4) HBO Now – 23M

Video: How the streaming wars between Disney, Netflix, Apple and everybody else will change TV forever

More #1: Comcast, Netflix and WarnerMedia to square off over ‘Seinfeld’ – report

More #2: Hulu and Amazon Prime Video Are Gaining on Netflix in the Streaming Wars

More #3: The $400-million-plus reason your favorite TV shows are exiting Netflix and maybe Hulu

Voice Assistant Use Reaches Critical Mass

A recent report from eMarketer estimates that 78M individuals in the U.S. will use a smart speaker this year.

U.S. smart speaker users by year (YoY growth):
1) 
2017 – 46M
2) 
2018 – 66M (↑ 43%)
3) 2019P – 78M (↑ 18%)
4) 2020P – 85M (↑ 9%)
5) 2021P – 89M (↑ 5%)

Top smart speaker tasks according to Social Lens Research:
1) Getting directions
2) Making phone calls
3) Listening to music
4) Finding nearby stores

In the market?  The team at Axios has you covered with this feature comparison.

More #1: Facebook Approached Netflix, Disney to Support TV Chat Device

More #2: Smart speaker adoption in US reaches 66M units, with Amazon leading

Tiny Roku Fends Off Amazon and Thrives by Selling Ads

Key numbers from Roku’s Q2 earnings:
1) 1.4M 
active accounts added in Q2
2) 30.5M total active accounts
3) 86% YoY increase in advertising revenue

Share of U.S. streaming box/stick sales in 2019-Q1 according to Strategy Analytics:
1) Roku – 39%
2) Amazon – 28%
3) Apple – 16%
4) Google – 13%
5) Other – 4%

Share of U.S. smart-TV OS sales in 2019-Q1 according to Strategy Analytics:
1) Roku – 33%
2) Samsung – 23%
3) Vizio – 16%
4) LG – 12%
5) Google – 9%
6)
 Amazon – 2%
7)
 Other – 5%

Market capitalization by company according to FactSet:
1) 
Apple – $900B
2) 
Amazon – $887B
3) 
Alphabet – $815B
4) 
Roku – $12B

Roku active accounts by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 
2017-Q2 – 15.1M
2) 
2018-Q2 – 22.0M (↑ 46%)
3) 2019-Q2 – 30.5M (↑ 39%)

Roku advertising revenue by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 2017-Q2 – $46M
2) 
2018-Q2 – $90M (↑ 96%)
3) 2019-Q2 – $168M (↑ 86%)

Roku advertising revenue per account by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 2017-Q2 – $3.05
2) 
2018-Q2 – $4.10 (↑ 35%)
3) 2019-Q2 – $5.50 (↑ 34%)

Roku total streaming hours by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 
2017-Q2 – 3.5B
2) 
2018-Q2 – 5.5B (↑ 57%)
3) 2019-Q2 – 9.4B (↑ 71%)

Roku streaming hours per account by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 2017-Q2 – 232
2) 
2018-Q2 – 250 (↑ 8%)
3) 2019-Q2 – 308 (↑ 23%)

Wow: The average Roku household is streaming 19 hours more per month than last year!

Roku advertising revenue per hour streamed by quarter (YoY growth):
1) 2017-Q2 – $0.013
2) 
2018-Q2 – $0.016 (↑ 25%)
3) 2019-Q2 – $0.018 (↑ 9%)

More #1: 73% of All Roku Sales Comes From Amazon, Best Buy, & Walmart

More #2: Roku expands its free, live TV selection with 5 more channels, including fubo’s Sports Network

More #3: Inside Roku’s Enormous Bet On AVOD

Deeper Dive—YouTube TV, Hulu could change the cord-cutting story if they wanted

QoQ change in pay-TV subscribers according to Leichtman Research Group and MoffettNathanson:
1) 
Traditional pay-TV – ↓ 1.4M
2) 
Streaming pay-TV – ↑ 404K
3) 
Total pay-TV – ↓ 1.0M

QoQ change in traditional pay-TV subscribers:
1) 
AT&T – ↓ 778K
2) 
Comcast – ↓ 224K
3) 
Charter – ↓ 141K
4) 
Dish – ↓ 79K

Flashback: The fight for the bundle is the war for the future of TV

Wow: At one point, Time Warner had 90K different pricing points in use for its pay-TV offering!

More #1: The Problem With Today’s “TV Is Dead” Study

More #2: AT&T is losing TV subscribers faster than its rivals, but cord-cutting is hitting the entire pay-TV industry hard

More #3: If the Streaming Wars will be decided based on number of video services, AT&T might have just won it

Viacom-CBS Deal Drama Was Worthy of the Fall Lineup

The big news: CBS and Viacom have agreed to merge (again) in a deal that values the new company at $30B.

Key details for ViacomCBS:
1) 140K episodes of premium TV content
2) 3.6K film titles
3) 15% share of prime-time viewing
4) $16/subscriber/month from pay-TV providers
5) 4M subscribers for CBS All Access
6) 4M subscribers for Showtime OTT
7) 18M monthly users for PlutoTV

Market capitalization by company according to FactSet:
1) 
AT&T – $252B
2) 
Walt Disney – $245B
3) 
Comcast – $193B
4) 
Netflix – $136B
5) 
ViacomCBS – $30B

Back to the future: These companies have split and merged multiple times.

ViacomCBS will include content providers such as:
1) 
CBS Television
2) CBS Networks
3) CBS Sports
4) MTV
5) BET
6) Comedy Central
7) Nickelodeon
8) Paramount Pictures
9) Showtime
10) Smithsonian

Share of prime-time viewers:
1) 
Comcast – 18%
2) 
ViacomCBS – 15%
3) 
Walt Disney – 14%
4) 
Discovery – 11%
5) 
Fox – 9%
6) 
AT&T – 7%
7) 
Other – 26%

Per-subscriber fees:
1) Walt Disney – $22
2) 
ViacomCBS – $16
3) 
AT&T – $13
4) 
Comcast – $7
5) 
Fox – $7
6) 
Discovery – $4

Video: Watch the full interview with the newly formed ViacomCBS CEO Robert Bakish

More #1: Why Viacom Fell (And Why It Can Come Back)

More #2: CBS and Viacom Reunite in Deal That Marks Ascendance of Shari Redstone

More #3: M&A experts break down what Viacom and CBS could buy next, from ad-tech to James Bond

The Nielsen Local Watch Report (August 2019)

Share of households with connected-TV according to Nielsen:
1) 
2017 – 51%
2) 
2018 – 59%
3) 
2019 – 65%

Monthly reach by year (% of adults):
1) 
2017 – 95.9M (40%)
2) 2018 – 115.1M (48%)
3) 2019 – 134.2M (56%)

Monthly reach by age group:
1) 
18-34 – 64%
2) 
25-54 – 65%
3) 
55+ – 42%

Streamers vs. non-streamers:
1) Age – 50 vs. 62
2) Income – $69K vs. $45K
3) College education – 43% vs. 31%

Daily time spent w/ video:
1) 
Non-Streamer – 5h 31m
2) 
Streamer – 4h 28m