Grading our 2019 predictions

Since it’s always fun to publically grade last year’s NYE resolutions, we decided to do the same with our predictions…

1) OTT/CTV will converge TV/digital skills – For the most part, new digital video formats (pre-roll, social, etc.) have stayed in the digital skills camp.  OTT/CTV is the first format that is being claimed by both the TV and digital sides, even if both are attacking from different angles (demo vs. audiences, etc.).  Both sides see a huge market and will continue to claim it belongs in their media plan.  Another reason why brands, agencies, and networks need to overcome silos with cross screen teams.

Verdict: Silios on both the buy and sell-side persist, but this is still a mega trend and one to watch in the years ahead.

2) Local will lead the way in advanced TV measurement – Breaking Nielsen’s national panel down into 210 individual markets causes major issues on the sampling side, and those involved in local marketing are incentivized to adopt alternative currencies faster than national advertisers.  This will have the side benefit of ushering in audience buying since these would allow for custom audiences.  This trend has already started with announcements from groups like Scripps and Gray.

Verdict: Slow out of the gate.  There was significant momentum late in the year, and we anticipate that the 2020 election will set the standard in advanced TV.

3) Disney+ will be a success – The Disney catalog of content will provide a compelling reason for subscriber adoption, and this service will get traction.  However, Wall Street may take a different view of Netflix’s 59M+ domestic subscribers are used as a benchmark.

Verdict: This was not a tough one to see coming, but the overall execution from Disney has been impressive to watch.

Thank You!!!

This year will be hard to top, and we owe it all to our friends and family in the Screens community!

Quick math on SOTS growth in 2019:
1) 53 
editions
2) 41,296 words
3) Estimated reading time: 207 minutes
4) 210 blog posts at StateOfTheScreens.com
5) ↑ 202% YoY growth in the size of the community
6) We now have subscribers from 20+ different countries!

Top ten posts from 2019:
1) Disney announces $12.99 bundle for Disney+, Hulu, and ESPN+
2) Trump’s general election brawl to drive record advertising
3) Martin Scorsese’s biggest opening weekend ever was on Netflix — but there’s a catch
4) Streaming Video Will Soon Look Like the Bad Old Days of TV
5) The Streaming Video-on-Demand War Is Going to Get Bloody
6) We still don’t know what’s in Apple’s streaming service, how much it will cost, or why we should…
7) Amazon is allowing ad-tech companies to sell ads in streaming TV apps, and marketers see it as a sign that the e-commerce giant is becoming less of a walled garden
8) It’s time for impressions to be the currency of local broadcast TV
9) TV’s most expensive commercials for the 2019-’20 season
10) Tubi Tops 20M Monthly Viewers In AVOD Race For Audience, Ads

How to Watch Christmas Specials and Movies on TV: 2019 Holiday Viewing Guide

Boom: TV Guide has a breakdown of where to watch your favorite shows across 15 networks and streaming services!

Key details for Hallmark’s Countdown to Christmas:
1) 
Hallmark started airing Christmas movies in 2002
2) They will make 103 movies this year, and 43 (41%) are about Christmas
3) The channel goes 24/7 Christmas between October and January
4) 72M people watched Christmas programming on the Hallmark Channel in 2018
5) The Hallmark Channel is #1 in both women (18-49) and (25-54) in Q4

No joke: The only thing that can get Granny Screens to clear old reruns of Matlock off of the DVR is Hallmark’s Countdown to Christmas so these numbers are no surprise and why Santa Screens may be leaving this in her stocking!

Hallmark Christmas movies per year (YoY change):
1) 2009 – 8
2) 2010 – 12 (↑ 50%)
3) 2011 – 12 ( 0%)
4) 2012 – 12 ( 0%)
5) 2013 – 12 ( 0%)
6) 2014 – 18 ( 50%)
7) 2015 – 21 ( 17%)
8) 2016 – 28 ( 33%)
9) 2017 – 34 ( 21%)
10) 2018 – 37 ( 9%)
11) 2019 – 40 ( 8%)

Netflix Christmas movies per year (YoY change):
1) 2014 – 1
2) 2015 – ( 0%)
3) 2016 – ( 100%)
4) 2017 – ( 150%)
5) 2018 – 10 ( 100%)
6) 2019 – 17 ( 70%)

Video: Why Hallmark Bet Right on its ‘Countdown to Christmas’ Programming

More #1: This (Jewish) Couple Has Written 30 Christmas Movies — and They’re Not Alone

More #2: The Most Wonderful Time of the Year: Netflix and Disney Battle Hallmark for Christmas Viewers

More #3: War Over Christmas As Lifetime Trespasses On Hallmark Turf

Holiday spending bill: Most of us spend $1,000 or more on gifts, travel and goodies

Wow: The average American will spend $1,050 this holiday season on gifts, decorations, and travel.

Breakdown of average holiday spend (% of total) according to the National Retail Federation:
1) 
Gifts – $660 (63%)
2) Cards/Decorations – $230 (22%)
3) Travel/Other – $160 (15%)

The average holiday spend per person by year:
1) 
2009 – $783
2) 
2010 – $831 ( 6%)
3) 2011 – $878 ( 6%)
4) 2012 – $893 ( 2%)
5) 2013 – $902 ( 1%)
6) 2014 – $929 ( 3%)
7) 2015 – $953 ( 3%)
8) 2016 – $936 ( 2%)
9) 2017 – $967 ( 3%)
10) 2018 – $1,007 ( 4%)
11) 2019P – $1,048 ( 4%)

Total holiday spend by year (YoY growth):
1) 
2009 – $503B ( 0%)
2) 2010 – $529B ( 5%)
3) 2011 – $553B ( 5%)
4) 2012 – $568B ( 3%)
5) 2013 – $584B ( 3%)
6) 2014 – $614B ( 5%)
7) 2015 – $633B ( 3%)
8) 2016 – $653B ( 3%)
9) 2017 – $687B ( 5%)
10) 2018 – $701B ( 2%)
11) 2019P – $728B ( 4%)

Source of holiday spend (% of total):
1) 
In-store – $565.3B (78%)
2) Online – $162.6B (22%)
3) Total – $727.9B

The anticipated change in spending, according to Gallup:
1) 
Same – 65%
2) 
More – 18%
3) 
Less – 16%

Podcast: Will US Retailers Ring in the First Trillion-Dollar Holiday Season?

Mariah Carey is the Queen of Christmas — and 21st century marketing. Bend the knee. 

Key details for Mariah Carey’s All I Want for Christmas is You:
1) 
Released in 1994
2) $60M+ in revenue (as of 2016)
3) $600K+ in revenue expected this year
4) 100M+ copies sold
5) It only took 15 minutes to write and compose
6) 2019 is the first time to reach #1 in the United States
7) It has reached #1 in 14 different countries

Highest ranking on Billboard Hot 100 by year:
1) 2013 – #21
2) 2014 – #26
3) 2015 – #35
4) 2016 – #11
5) 2017 – #9
6) 2018 – #3
7) 2019 – #1

All I Want for Christmas is You streams per year on Spotify:
1)
 2014 – 13M
2) 2016 – 61M
3) 2018 – 181M

Quick math on Mrs. Screens and All I Want for Christmas is You:
1) 602M 
total streams on Spotify for the entire world
2) Mrs. Screens decorates the house in early November
3) 60 days per year of Christmas celebration
4) 10 years w/ Spotify
5) 600 days of Christmas celebration
6) Mrs. Screens plays All I Want for Christmas is You ≈ 100 times per day (6K per year; 60K over ten years)
7) Mrs. Screens has accounted for 0.01% of the global streams and ≈ $6K in revenue for Mariah Carey

Top 5 holiday albums according to the RIAA:
1) 
Elvis’ Christmas Album by Elvis (1970)
2) Miracles: The Holiday Album by Kenny G (1994)
3) Now That’s What I Call Christmas! by various artists (2001)
4) A Fresh Aire Christmas by Mannheim Steamroller (1988)
5) Mannheim Steamroller Christmas by Mannheim Steamroller ( 1984)

Top 5 countries ranked by share of Christmas streams on Christmas Day according to Spotify:
1) 
Sweden
2) Britain
3) Germany
4) Australia
5) United States

Top 5 states ranked by share of Christmas streams on Christmas Day:
1) 
New Hampshire
2) Utah
3) New York
4) Florida
5) California

Video: ‘All I Want for Christmas’ Carpool Karaoke

Fox News’ upper hand next year: The country’s eyeballs, down to districts

Key details for news viewership according to Morning Consult:
1) 
The study included 1.1M+ responses and is broken down by congressional district
2) Fox News led all cable news networks with a 33% share of viewers
3) According to Nielsen, Fox News has been the most-watched cable news network for 40 straight months.

Share of cable news viewership:
1) 
Fox News – 33%
2) 
CNN – 28%
3) 
MSNBC – 20%

Top cable news viewership by district (% of total):
1) 
Fox News – 299 (69%)
2) CNN – 63 (15%)
3) Fox News – 1 (1%)

Cable news networks by 2018 prime-time audience (YoY growth):
1) 
Fox News – 2.5M (↑ 3%)
2) MSNBC – 1.8M (↑ 12%)
3) CNN – 990K (↓ 6%)

Top 5 districts for Fox News:
1) 
FL-21 – 47%
2) 
FL-11 – 44%
3) 
NJ-07 – 44%
4) 
NY-17 – 44%
5) 
GA-13 – 44%

Top 5 districts for CNN:
1) 
NY-12 – 56%
2) 
FL-27 – 49%
3) 
CA-30 – 46%
4) 
CA-28 – 46%
5) 
NY-10 – 46%

Top 5 districts for MSNBC:
1) 
CA-02 – 36%
2) 
NY-12 – 36%
3) 
FL-23 – 32%
4) 
NY-13 – 32%
5) 
VA-08 – 32%

Flashback #1: Fox News wins 2018 ratings race; MSNBC has its best year ever

Flashback #2: Social media outpaces print newspapers in the U.S. as a news source

Flashback #3: Cable News Wars: Inside the Unprecedented Battle for Viewers in Trump Era

Comcast to Spend $2 Billion on NBCU’s Peacock Streaming Service in First Two Years

Key details for Peacock streaming service:
1) 
Launching in April
2) 15K hours of content
3) Free for Comcast pay-TV subscribers w/ more options coming soon (we think 🤞)
4) $2B budget over 2020-21
5) Estimated break-even by year 5
6)
 Comcast has 6M+ broadband-only customers

PSA: $2B = 1% of annual revenue for Comcast…

Quick math on the advertising model for Peacock:
1) 
Ad minutes/hour – 3-5
2) 
30s spots/hour – 6-10
3) Ad revenue/user/month – $5
4) CPM $ –  $30
5) $/spot – $0.03
6) Spots/month – 167
7) The service hits the revenue target at 17-28 hours/viewer/month

Quote from Mike Cavanagh – CFO @ Comcast:
“We think we’ve got a pretty special opportunity, when you think about the relatively underserved segment of premium content [that is] ad-supported…Consumer demand is there, with all the pay-for SVOD services that are proliferating…Comcast research has found that 80% of consumers are interested in watching a premium VOD service that has a “reasonable amount of ads,”

Video: Sources: Peacock streaming service likely to be free for all

Hulu hopes to make ads part of your binge session

Hulu is launching a special ad unit aimed at binge-watchers.

What is a binge-watcher?  Hulu defines a binge-watcher as anyone who watches 3+ episodes of a show consecutively.

How common is binge-watching?  Binge-watching accounts for 50%+ of the ad-supported hours on Hulu, and 75% of U.S. consumers binge their favorite shows.

The partners for this test include:
1) Cheez-It
2) Maker’s Mark Bourbon
3) Sparkle Paper Towels

The types of binge-ad formats, according to Axios:
1) Ad-free episode
2) Promotion ads

Hulu subscriptions (% of total) by type according to Bernstein Research:
1) Ad-Supported – 18.4M (63%)
2) Ad-free – 7.9M (27%)
3) Live – 2.7M (10%)
4) Total – 29.0M

Hulu advertising revenue in U.S. (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 2016 – $873M (↑ 16%)
2) 2017 – $986M (↑ 13%)
3) 2018 – $1.1B (↑ 16%)
4) 2019P – $1.3B (↑ 15%)
5) 2020P – $1.5B (↑ 13%)

Hulu viewers by year (YoY growth):
1) 2016 – 32.7M
2) 2017 – 43.1M (↑ 32%)
3) 2018 – 64.5M (↑ 50%)
4) 2019P – 75.8M (↑ 18%)
5) 2020P – 86.2M (↑ 14%)

Hulu advertising revenue per viewer:
1) 2016 – $26.65
2) 2017 – $22.88
3) 2018 – $17.66
4) 2019P – $17.29
5) 2020P – $17.21

More #1: Peter Chernin: ‘There’s No Reason Hulu Shouldn’t Be Netflix Today’

More #2: Hulu’s Peter Naylor on Changing the Advertising Model

More #3: Hulu is raising price of its live TV service to $55 a month

The top songs, artists, playlists, and podcasts of 2019—and the last decade

Most-streamed artists of 2019 according to Spotify:
1) 
Post Malone
2) Billie Eilish
3) Ariana Grande
4) Ed Sheeran
5) Bad Bunny

Most-streamed artists of the decade:
1) 
Drake
2) Ed Sheeran
3) Post Malone
4) Ariana Grande
5) Eminem

Most-streamed tracks of 2019:
1) 
“Señorita” – Camila Cabello, Shawn Mendes
2) “bad guy” – Billie Eilish
3) “Sunflower” – Post Malone, Swae Lee
4) “7 Rings” – Ariana Grande
5) “Old Town Road – Remix” – Lil Nas X, Billy Ray Cyrus

Most-streamed tracks of the decade:
1) 
“Shape of You” – Ed Sheeran
2) “One Dance”  – Drake, Kyla, WizKid
3) “rockstar (feat. 21 Savage)” – 21 Savage, Post Malone
4) “Closer” – Halsey, The Chainsmokers
5) “Thinking out Loud” – Ed Sheeran

Top 5 touring acts of the decade according to Pollstar:
1) 
U2 – $1.0B
2) 
The Rolling Stones – $929M
3) 
Ed Sheeran – $922M
4) 
Taylor Swift – $900M
5) 
Beyoncé – $857M

Total concert revenue for top 100 tours according to Pollstar:
1) 
2010 – $2.2B (↓ 13%)
2) 2011 – $2.3B (↑ 6%)
3) 2012 – $2.5B (↑ 8%)
4) 2013 – $2.8B (↑ 10%)
5) 2014 – $2.7B (↓ 2%)
6) 2015 – $3.1B (↑ 14%)
7) 2016 – $3.3B (↑ 7%)
8) 2017 – $3.7B (↑ 9%)
9) 2018 – $3.7B (↑ 0%)

FYI: Concerts generate 2X the revenue of an NBA/NHL game in the same arena.

Why NBA TV ratings are down

YoY change in NBA ratings by network according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 
TNT – ↓ 22%
2) 
ESPN – ↓ 19%
3) 
Regional Sports Networks (RSN) – ↓ 7%

Average viewers/game (YoY growth):
1) 2018-19 – 1.75M
2) 
2019-20 – 1.45M (↓ 17%)

Quote from Adam Silver – Commissioner @ NBA:
 “Especially for the NBA, which is primarily a cable-satellite sport, that system is broken to a certain extent… It’s not just in terms of the loss of homes, but our young viewers, in particular, are tuning out cable, traditional cable.”

The big question: Would the NBA fare better on broadcast TV?  Mak Cuban seems to think so.

Teams w/ the most nationally televised games in 2019-20:
1) Los Angeles Lakers – 43
2) Golden State Warriors – 42
3) Los Angeles Clippers – 26

NBA TV rights fees/year (% change) by deal according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 
2002-08 – $767M
2) 
2008-16 – $930M (↑ 62%)
3) 2016-25 – $2.6B (↑ 215%)

The big big picture: The NBA’s future is in China.

Key details for the NBA in China:
1) 490M 
people in China watched NBA content on Tencent last year
2) 21M people in China watched part of Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals on Tencent
3) 18M people (average minute audience) watched Game 6 of the 2019 NBA Finals in the U.S.

More #1: NBA ratings are in a steep decline: Sorting through some popular myths — and looking for a solution

More #2: NBA TV Now Available as Direct Streaming Service, No Cable or Satellite TV Required 

More #3: NBA Sets Earlier Start Times for TV Doubleheaders