eMarketer: Television Update Fall 2019

Addressable TV spend by year (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 
2016 – $760M
2) 
2017 – $970M (↑ 28%)
3) 2018 – $1.5B (↑ 51%)
4) 2019P – $2.0B (↑ 37%)
5) 2020P – $2.9B (↑ 44%)
6) 2021P – $3.5B (↑ 21%)

Video: Mythbusting with LiveRamp Video GM Allison Metcalfe

More #1: Addressing The Kinks Of Addressable TV

More #2: The Ad-Free Disney Plus Wake-Up Call: We Must Scale Universal Addressable TV+ Now

More #3: Addressable’s Accelerating Push Into National Inventory

Baby Yodas don’t come cheap: The streaming wars will cost Disney, Netflix, and WarnerMedia $16 billion

Pay-TV subscribers by sports and news viewership (% of total) according to MoffettNathanson:
1) 
Sports + News – 48.1M (51%)
2) News only – 24.5M (26%)
3) Non-Sports/News – 13.0M (14%)
4) Sports only – 8.2M (9%)

The big question: How long before those 13M non-sports/news HH cut the cord and move to streaming video-on-demand (SVOD)?

Projected non-Sports programming expenses in 2019:
1) Disney – $18.7B
2) Comcast – $15.9B
3)
 AT&T – $12.2B
4) Netflix – $9.2B
5) 
ViacomCBS – $8.8B
6)
 Amazon – $5.8B
7) Fox – $3.8B
8) Discovery – $2.6B
9) Apple – $2.0B
10) AMC – $1.0B

U.S. subscription revenue for SVOD according to Cowen:
1) 2019 – $19B
2) 2024 – $41B

Share of consumers who watch their most recent favorite show through streaming according to Hub Research Base:
1) 
2015 – 43%
2) 
2016 – 47%
3) 
2017 – 52%
4) 
2018 – 54%
5) 
2019 – 63%

Video: MoffettNathanson’s Michael Nathanson | Full interview | Code Media 2019

Podcast: The Streaming Wars: A New Era In TV

More #1: The Streaming Era Has Finally Arrived. Everything Is About to Change

More #2: For Streamers, the Great Unbundling Was Too Good to Be True

It’s time for impressions to be the currency of local broadcast TV

The big news: Local broadcast TV is moving away from ratings and toward impression-based selling.

Quote from Steve Lanzano – President and CEO @ TVB:
“For us to be able to integrate all of the assets we have — whether it’s over-the-top, streaming, websites — and put together an integrated package for an advertiser, we need to go from percentages to actual impressions.”

Why this matters for buyers: Local broadcast TV will become part of cross screen buys along with CTV and digital video.

Why this matters for sellers: Any program with a rating below 0.05 rounds down to 0.00.  For example, the number of programs that show up with Nielsen increases by 5-7% with impressions versus ratings.

Quote from Wendy McMahon – President @ ABC Owned Television Stations:
“We see the transition from ratings to impressions as aligned with the consumer shift to cross-platform viewing, a shift we have taken advantage of to grow total audience…”

Key details for local media agencies view on impressions:
1) 81% surveyed by TVB plans to move to impression-based buying by the end of 2020
2) 70% surveyed by the 4As said that impressions were the best currency for cross screen video buying

Quote from Kathy Doyle – EVP of Local Investment @ IPG MAGNA:
“This is easy math. We learned this in fifth grade. You can do this. I know it seems intimidating and hard to do, but it’s not. And you don’t have to move the mountain all at once. Pick one client in one market and test it,”

The groups involved include:
1) 
TVB
2) ABC
3) CBS
4) NBC
5) Nexstar
6) Hearst Television
7) Gray Television
8) Graham Media

Video: Local TV Will Go Impression-Based: WideOrbit’s Mathewson

More #1: How Local TV Is Moving Forward

More #2: NextGen TV Fills in the Blanks as a New Local Ad Platform

More #3: Impressions-Based Advertising Long Overdue

As the pay TV bundle unravels, advertisers should stick to sports

Share of programming watched live according to Nielsen:
1) NFL Sunday Night Football – 97%
2) 
60 Minutes – 91%
3) 
Average scripted program – 69%

Sports share of broadcast ratings for 18-49 demo:
1) 2014-15 – 29%
2) 
2018-19 – 42%

Ad impressions for Emmy-nominated series (% change) according to Fox Sports:
1) 1998 – 329M
2) 
2018 – 31M (↓ 91%)

Ad impressions for premium sports event (% change):
1) 
1998 – 467M
2) 
2018 – 438M (↓ 6%)

Key details for sports on TV:
1) 88 of 100 top broadcasts in 2018 were sports
2) The NFL accounted for 8 of the top 10
3) 26% 
of global content spend is on sports

Global sports rights (% change):
1) 2012 – $20B
2) 
2018 – $38B (↑ 90%)

Share of global sports rights (% of total):
1) 
United States – $19B (50%)
2) Europe – $11B (29%)
3) Other – $8B (21%)

More #1: Safe Bet: TV Sports Getting Bigger, Pricier

More #2: Billions of minutes and thinking about the TV business

More #3: Attendance woes for sporting events were inevitable

Political ads are tricky to define in digital era 

The big question: How do we define a “political ad” and what, if any, limitations should tech platforms put in place?

Why this matters: Google announced the removal of microtargeting for political ads, and Facebook is considering similar moves.

Quote from Mark Zuckerberg – CEO @ Facebook:
“From a business perspective, the controversy certainly isn’t worth the small part of our business they make up…But political ads are an important part of voice, especially for local candidates, up-and-coming challengers, and advocacy groups that may not get much media attention otherwise.”

Video: Facebook CTO Mike Schroepfer on Political Ads

More #1: Getting rid of microtargeting in political advertising is a terrible idea

More #2: Don’t abolish political ads on social media. Stop microtargeting

U.S. Local Advertising Revenue to Exceed $161B in 2020, According to BIA Advisory Services’ Forecast

Local ad spend by year (YoY growth) according to BIA Advisory Services:
1) 
2018 – $145.5B
2) 
2019P – $152.7B (↑ 5%)
3) 2020P – $161.1B (↑ 6%)
4) 2021P – $165.8B (↑ 3%)
5) 2022P – $173.8B (↑ 5%)
6) 2023P – $179.6B (↑ 3%)
7) 2024P – $187.6B (↑ 4%)

Local ad spend by platform (% of total):
1) 
Digital – $52.8B (33%)
2) Direct Mail – $37.1B (23%)
3) Local TV – $26.3B (16%)
4) Local Radio – $14.3B (9%)
5) Other – $30.6B (19%)

Local video ad spend by year (YoY growth):
1) 
2018 – $29.8B
2) 
2019P – $30.3B (↑ 2%)
3) 2020P – $33.0B (↑ 9%)
4) 2021P – $32.4B (↓ 2%)
5) 2022P – $34.7B (↑ 7%)
6) 2023P – $34.6B (↓ 0%)
7) 2024P – $37.1B (↑ 7%)

Digital share of local broadcast ad revenue:
1) 2018 – 6%
2) 
2019P – 7%
3) 2020P – 8%
4) 2021P – 9%
5) 2022P – 9%
6) 2023P – 10%
7) 2024P – 11%

More #1: Scripps: Don’t Overconsolidate In One Business

More #2: Nexstar: Making The Most Of Having The Most

More #3: Sinclair CEO says he’s pivoted to local news and sports to avoid streaming services ‘sea of blood’

Extreme Reach: 2019-Q3 Video Benchmarks

Share of impressions by length in 2019-Q3 according to Extreme Reach:
1) 30s – 66%
2) 
15s – 32%
3) 
60s – 1%
4) 
6s – 1%

Share of impressions for 6s:
1) 2017-Q1 – 0.04%
2) 
2017-Q2 – 2%
3) 
2017-Q3 – 3%
4) 
2017-Q4 – 5%
5) 
2018-Q1 – 3%
6) 
2018-Q2 – 1%
7) 
2018-Q3 – 2%
8) 2018-Q4 – 1%
9) 2019-Q1 – <1%
10) 2019-Q2 – 1%
11) 2019-Q3 – 1%

Share of impressions by device (YoY share change):
1) 
Connected TV – 51% (↑ 13%)
2) Mobile – 26% (↓ 5%)
3) Desktop – 15% (↓ 6%)
4) Tablet – 5% (↓ 4%)
5) Other – 3% (↑ 2%)

Completion rate by device:
1) 
Connected TV – 96%
2) 
Tablet – 88%
3) 
Desktop –  80%
4) 
Mobile – 80%

Average view time by length:
1) 30s  – 26s (87%)
2) 15s  – 12s (80%)

More #1: Growth in Video Is Pushing Digital Ad Spend to Record High

More #2: 30s Now Represent Two-Thirds Of Digital Video Ads Served

Influencer Marketing Has Peaked — Here’s What’s Next

The average cost per paid influencer post on YouTube (YoY growth) according to Izea:
1) 
2014 – $420
2) 
2015 – $833 (↑ 98%)
3) 2016 – $6,150 (↑ 638%)
4) 2017 – $7,954 (↑ 29%)
5) 2018 – $4,085 (↓ 49%)
6) 2019 – $6,700 (↑ 64%)

The average cost per paid influencer post on Instagram (YoY growth):
1) 
2014 – $134
2) 
2015 – $381 (↑ 184%)
3) 2016 – $863 (↑ 126%)
4) 2017 – $1,170 (↑ 36%)
5) 2018 – $1,144 (↓ 2%)
6) 2019 – $1,643 (↑ 4%)

The average cost per paid influencer post on Instagram by follower count according to Mediakix:
1) 
10K – $500
2) 
50K – $4,000
3) 500K – $10,000
4) 1M – $25,000

Cost to acquire 1,000 fake followers according to Masarah Paquet-Clouston:
1) 
YouTube – $49
2) 
Facebook – $39
3) 
Instagram – $16

More #1: ‘It’s very transactional’: Confessions of a marketer on working with influencers

More #2: “At What Point Is 3 Million Gonna Be Success?” : The Ever-Evolving, Often Perilous Business of Being a YouTube Star

More #3: Influencer Marketing Has Peaked — Here’s What’s Next

More than 10 million sign up for Disney+ in first day

Wow: Disney+ surpassed 10M sign-ups in the first 24 hours, which is higher than analyst predictions of 8M for 2019!

Not so fast, my friend: This number includes free-trials along with Verizon customers, such as the Screens family, who will get their first year free.

Disney+ launch scheduled for November 2019:
1) Australia
2) Canada
3) Netherlands
4) New Zealand
5) Puerto Rico
6) United States

Disney + launch scheduled for March 2020:
1) France
2) Germany
3) Italy
4) Spain
5) United Kingdom

Global video subscribers in 2018:
1) Streaming – 613M
2) Cable TV – 556M

Podcast: Where Streams Come True

Video: Disney officially enters the streaming wars – here’s what six experts say investors should watch

More #1: The 4 Minute History of Disney

More #2: 10 lessons for Disney, Apple, and all the new streaming companies trying to take down Netflix

More #3: Bob Iger Takes the Gloves Off for Disney’s Streaming Debut

TV ad spend to drop 3 percent to $70.3 billion in 2019: report 

TV advertising according to eMarketer (YoY growth):
1)
 2017 – $70.2B 
2) 2018 – $72.4B (↑ 3%)
3) 2019P – $70.3B (↓ 3%)
4) 2020P – $71.0B (↑ 1%)
5) 2021P – $70.3B (↓ 1%)
6) 2022P – $69.8B (↓ 1%)
7) 2023P – $69.1B (↓ 1%)

TV share of video advertising:
1) 
2019P – 66%
2) 
2020P – 63%
3) 
2021P – 59%
4) 
2022P – 56%
5) 
2023P – 54%

Video: Watch my full keynote speech on the future of the video ad market from RampUp New York.

More #1: Yesterday’s Startup Strategy: Insert TV Buzzword [Here] For Immediate Success

More #2: It’s Time To Integrate CTV Into TV Ad Ecosystem

More #3: Same same but different: Understanding changes to the US video market