Pluto TV Expects to Reach 30 Million Users This Year

PlutoTV monthly viewers (YoY growth):
1) 
2016 – 5M
2) 
2018 – 12M
3) 
2019 – 22M (↑ 87%)
4) 2020P – 30M (↑ 34%)

Quote from Andrew Rosen – Founder @ PARQOR:
“My two cents is AVOD service PlutoTV is one of the smartest investments Viacom ever made, perhaps THE smartest digital media investment it has ever made (NOTE: I say this as someone who worked on operationally integrating major digital acquisitions like AtomFilms and Shockwave, and gaming freeware instant messaging service Xfire, at Viacom 15 years ago). I also think CBS Interactive CEO Marc Debevoise is one of the smartest executives in the streaming space, and both CBS All-Access and Pluto TV are therefore in unusually capable hands.”

Flashback: ViacomCBS’s Parts Might Add Up to a Greater Whole

More #1: Seeking More Control Of Its Streaming Destiny, ViacomCBS Won’t Sell Off “Critical Mass” Of Its Content, CEO Bob Bakish Asserts

More #2: Coronavirus Is Accelerating Pluto TV’s Already Massive Growth

More #3: ViacomCBS Plans to Rebrand CBS All Access and Launch International Streaming Platform

GroupM Predicts 13 Percent Decline in 2020 U.S. Ad Spend

Global ad market (YoY growth) according to GroupM:
1) 
2012 – $408.0B
2) 
2013 – $421.7B ( 3%)
3) 2014 – $437.7B ( 4%)
4) 2015 – $458.3B ( 5%)
5) 2016 – $482.9B ( 5%)
6) 2017 – $516.2B ( 7%)
7) 2018 – $552.7B ( 7%)
8) 2019 – $587.0B ( 6%)
9) 2020P – $517.5B (↓ 12%)
10) 2021P – $559.8B ( 8%)
11) 2022P – $586.4B ( 5%)
12) 2023P – $607.6B ( 4%)
13) 2024P – $633.1B ( 4%)

Global GDP vs. global ad spend according to GroupM:

YoY growth for the U.S. ad market:
1) 2009 – ↓ 16%
2) 2020 – ↓ 13%

Quote from Brian Wieser – Global President, Business Intelligence @ GroupM:
“That we ‘only’ expect a 13% decline is surprising.  We might normally expect that because the 2020 economic decline is so much worse than 2009, advertising should be much weaker.”

Flashback: Political Ads Expected to Explode, Even as Economy Tanks

Wow: The political video ad market is growing (CAGR) at a rate of 26%!

Global TV ad market (YoY growth) according to GroupM:
1) 
2012 – $154.3B
2) 
2013 – $158.8B ( 3%)
3) 2014 – $163.1B ( 3%)
4) 2015 – $164.0B ( 1%)
5) 2016 – $166.8B ( 2%)
6) 2017 – $165.2B ( 1%)
7) 2018 – $165.8B ( 0%)
8) 2019 – $164.5B ( 1%)
9) 2020P – $135.5B (↓ 18%)
10) 2021P – $143.5B ( 6%)
11) 2022P – $146.4B ( 2%)
12) 2023P – $149.2B ( 2%)
13) 2024P – $153.0B ( 3%)

Big question #1: How big of an impact is this slowdown having on ad prices?

Scatter ad prices (YoY growth) for big 3 TV networks, according to SQAD:
1) 2019-Q2 – $142K
2) 2020-Apr – $102K (↓ 28%)

Big question #2: Do buyers believe that we have hit bottom yet?

Share of buyers that believe that ad spending has bottomed out according to Pivotal Research Group:
1) April – 51%
2) May – 57%

More #1: The TV Commercial, Once Advertising’s Main Event, Suffers in the Pandemic

More #2: The History Of Advertising In A Recession

Discovery Reviews Production Costs After Saving on Low-Budget Quarantine Shows

Wow: Discovery sent video kits out to cast members’ homes and saved $300K per hour in production costs!

The home video kit included:
1) Camera
2) iPhone
3) Tripods

FYI: Discovery spent $3.3B on content last year.

Quote from Gunnar Wiedenfels – CFO @ Discovery:
“We have been creating some very successful content with very scrappy equipment.  It felt the more real and authentic the content became during the crisis, the better it worked with our audience.”

Big question: When will non-remote film and television production be able to resume?

Quick answer: California is starting to open up, but most don’t expect much until late-July.

Scripted television projects by location according to FilmLA:
1) 
California – 72
2) 
New York – 29
3) 
British Columbia – 24
4) 
Georgia – 20
5) 
Other – 22

Domestic feature films by state according to Film LA:
1) California – 62
2) 
New York – 57
3) 
Georgia – 36
4) 
Massachusetts – 10
5) 
Illinois – 8
6) 
Louisiana – 8
7) 
Nevada – 7
8) 
New Mexico – 7
9) 
Other – 62

More #1: TV Execs, Writers Grapple With COVID-19 Era Scripts: “We’re Not Going to Be Able to Shoot It, So Don’t Write It”

More #2: Coronavirus Impact on Entertainment – Film and TV Production

Loyalty Becomes a “Sticking Point” in a Competitive Streaming Environment

Share of SVOD subscribers still active after one year according to ANTENNA:
1) 
Netflix – 65%
2) 
Hulu – 50%
3) 
CBS All Access – 49%
4) 
Starz – 48%
5) 
Showtime – 44%
6) 
HBO Now – 43%

Share of SVOD subscribers that cancel within three months:
1) Showtime – 34%
2) 
HBO Now – 31%
3) 
CBS All Access – 29%
4) 
Starz – 27%
5) 
Netflix – 23%
6) 
Hulu – 18%

Share of respondents who selected various services with $50 to spend according to Corus:
1) 
Netflix – 84%
2) 
Hulu – 57%
3) 
Disney+ – 49%
4) 
Amazon Prime – 48%
5) 
CBS All Access – 16%
6) 
Showtime – 13%
7) 
HBO – 12%
8) 
Apple TV+ – 12%
9) 
Starz – 10%

Average monthly household streaming video cost (% change) according to the Harris Poll:
1) 
Nov-19 – $30
2) 
Mar-20 – $37 (↑ 23%)

Share gain for streaming hours between February and March according to Comscore:
1) 
Netflix – ↑ 1.5%
2) 
Amazon Prime – ↑ 1.5%
3) 
Disney+ – ↑ 0.5%
4) YouTube – ↓ 0.1%
5) 
Other – ↓ 0.5%
6) Hulu – ↓ 2.9%

Time spent with SVOD services according to eMarketer:
1) 
2018 – 0h 44m (↑ 20%)
2) 2019 – 0h 51m (↑ 15%)
3) 2020P – 1h 2m (↑ 23%)
4) 2021P – 1h 7m (↑ 7%)
5) 2022P – 1h 10m (↑ 5%)

Podcast: The Streaming ‘Infinity War’

More #1: The Ringer’s Guide to Which Streaming Service Is Right for You

More #2: Content, Cars, and Comparisons in the “Streaming Wars”

More #3: Premium Entertainment Streaming Services during COVID-19

On Addressability Ad Initiative Has Its First Member: AMC Networks

Big news: AMC has signed onto On Addressability, the addressable TV initiative launched with Comcast, Cox, and Charter’s Spectrum Reach last June.

Why this matters: Addressable TV advertising is primarily confined to the 2 minutes per hour that the local distributor (MVPD, etc.) can sell.  This initiative aims to apply addressability from Comcast/Cox/Charter to the ≈ 14 minutes per hour that the network sells.

Ad minutes per hour (% of total):
1) 
National – 14 (87%)
2) Local – 2 (13%)

≈ 5-15% of Spectrum Reach’s linear inventory is used for addressable advertising.

Bottom line: Pay-TV providers can offer addressable advertising, but they only account for ≈ 3% of all TV ad impressions.  Initiatives such as On Addressability or Project OAR offer a potential 10X increase in addressable TV ad impressions.

Quote from David Kline – President @ Charter’s Spectrum Reach:
“If TV could act more like digital and get richer metrics and be able to, in a privacy-compliant way, help target [viewers] that focuses on audiences versus ratings, they would have something. Now they do. Now they have an opportunity to compete and make their networks more powerful through enablement through MVPDs (multichannel video programming distributors),”

Flashback #1: OpenAP and NCC Media partner to expand advanced advertising on TV

Flashback #2: Who Sells What? NCC Media And Xandr Aim To Consolidate The Confusing Addressable TV Market

Addressable TV spend by year (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 
2016 – $760M
2) 
2017 – $970M (↑ 28%)
3) 2018 – $1.5B (↑ 51%)
4) 2019P – $2.0B (↑ 37%)
5) 2020P – $2.9B (↑ 44%)
6) 2021P – $3.5B (↑ 21%)

More #1: Why Addressable Advertising Is Finally Getting Closer To Mass Adoption

More #2: Comcast opens cable box VOD content to programmatic ads

More #3: Interview With Addressable TV Market Maker Tracey Scheppach

Why the N.B.A. Is Planning on Going to Disney World

Key details for NBA re-start:
1) All games played at the 220-acre ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex
2) No fans
3) The regular season resumes on July 31st
4) Abbreviated training camp set to start July 9th
5) 22 teams
6) 88 games total (8 games per team)

Big question #1: Why is the NBA re-starting the season when fans cannot attend the games?

Quick answer: TV revenue.  The NBA generates ≈ $2.6B/year from national TV deals alone.

NBA TV rights fees/year (% change) by deal according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 
2002-08 – $767M
2) 
2008-16 – $930M (↑ 62%)
3) 2016-25 – $2.6B (↑ 215%)

Big question #2: How big will the viewership be?

Mr. Screen’s Crystal Ball: Huge.  Even though ratings through the All-Star Break were down 10%+ YoY, 6M people recently spent 20 hours watching a documentary about basketball!

YoY viewership change for NBA basketball through the All-Star Break according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 
ESPN – ↓ 10%
2) All National – ↓ 12%
3) TNT – ↓ 13%
4) Local RSNs – ↓ 13%
5) ABC – ↓ 16%

Top 5 teams for YoY viewership gains (RSN only):
1) Los Angeles Clippers – ↑ 86%
2)
 Orlando Magic – ↑ 82%
3)
 Atlanta Hawks – ↑ 49%
4)
 Miami Heat – ↑ 39%
5)
 Milwaukee Bucks – ↑ 24%

Bottom 5 teams for YoY viewership gains (RSN only):
1) Denver Nuggets – ↓ 72%
2)
 Golden State Warriors – ↓ 66%
3)
 Washington Wizards – ↓ 55%
4)
 Charlotte Hornets – ↓ 52%
5)
 Oklahoma City Thunder – ↓ 51%

Big question #3: Why 22 teams?

Quick answer: The NBA made the cut at 22 teams so that any team within 6 games of the final playoff spot could play on.

Big question #4: Why 88 games?

Quick answer: This number was not accidental.  It will allow the league/teams to fulfill minimum game requirements from TV deals.  For example, the Los Angeles Lakers generate $1.5M/game from their local (RSN) deal with Spectrum SportsNet.

Bottom line: 259 games remained in the regular season, so 66% of these games will be canceled.

Key details for the NBA “bubble”:
1) ≈ 1,500 people will be inside
2) 28 total per team
3) 15 players per team
4) 4 coaches per team
5) 5 trainers/strength coaches
6) 4 others (equipment manager, PR, logistics and security) per team
7) 300-350 hotel workers

More #1: Why the NBA Could (and Should) Look More Like the World Cup

More #2: Is the NBA Worth All That TV Money?

Connected TV Usage Remains Above Pre-COVID-19 Levels as Traditional TV Viewing Normalizes

Big question #1: How much has streaming grown during the lockdown?

Weekly hours spent watching CTV/OTT (WoW growth) according to Nielsen:
1) 
3/2 – 2.7B 
2) 3/9 – 2.9B (↑ 7%)
3) 3/16 – 3.8B (↑ 31%)
4) 3/23 – 3.9B (↑ 3%)
5) 3/30 – 3.9B (↑ 0%)
6) 4/6 – 3.9B (↑ 0%)
7) 4/13 – 3.8B (↓ 3%)
8) 4/20 – 3.7B (↓ 3%)
9) 4/27 – 3.6B (↓ 3%)
10) 5/4 – 3.5B (↓ 3%)

Share of U.S. homes w/ CTV/OTT device according to Leichtman Research Group:
1) 2010 – 24%
2) 2015 – 57%
3) 2018 – 74%
4) 2020 – 80%

Big question #2: How much has ad-supported streaming grown during the lockdown?

YoY increase in CTV/OTT ad inventory according to The Trade Desk:
1) February – ↑ 35%
2) March – ↑ 57%
3) April – ↑ 54%

Share of CTV viewing time in 2020-Q1 according to Hedgeye:
1) Roku – 44%
2) Fire TV – 19%
3) XBOX – 10%
4) Apple TV – 8%
5) Other – 7%
6) Chromecast – 6%
7) Playstation – 5%
8) Samsung – 1%

Connected TV ad spend (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 
2019P – $7B (↑ 38%)
2) 2020P – $9B (↑ 28%)
3) 2021P – $11B (↑ 22%)
4) 2022P – $12B (↑ 16%)
5) 2023P – $14B (↑ 13%)

More #1: ‘Hard to figure out the best route’: Ad buyers wrestle with how to buy connected TV ads

More #2: The Trade Desk CEO Jeff Green on Google, Netflix and the death of linear TV

More #3: Connected TV advertisers gravitate to multi-DSP model as Amazon, Roku push their own bidders

Disney Wants Advertisers to Buy Hulu, TV Networks Together

Cross Screen: Disney is launching an offering called Disney Hulu XP that will combine Hulu and Disney’s TV networks into a single buy.

Disney Hulu XP networks include:
1) 
Hulu
2) Freeform
3) ABC
4) ESPN

Quote from Nicolle Pangis – CEO @ Ampersand:
“Consumers don’t care where or how they are watching. Whether it’s linear, OTT, or VOD, to them it’s all TV.

For the industry, it’s much more complex. By splintering into separate camps and platforms, we’re not delivering on the most important part of TV’s transformation from traditional demographic buying to audience-based buying. Namely, making it easier for advertisers to reach highly specific audience segments at scale wherever, whenever and however they’re watching.”

Other details: Disney will price digital media based on completed views and will package with an attribution offering powered by Samba TV.

Flashback: NBCUniversal Aims to Merge TV and Digital Ad Buying With New Tech

U.S. agencies that buy TV and digital video w/ single team according to eMarketer:
1) 
2017 – 40%
2) 
2018 – 46%
3) 
2019 – 61%

More #1: TV Advertising’s Watershed Moment: It Is Finally Becoming More Like Digital

More #2: Four Decades of Pent-Up Need For Changes Will Upend TV Ad World

More #3: Opinion: It would be easier if we could just buy ‘TV’