Quote from Andrew Rosen – Founder @ PARQOR: “My two cents is AVOD service PlutoTV is one of the smartest investments Viacom ever made, perhaps THE smartest digital media investment it has ever made (NOTE: I say this as someone who worked on operationally integrating major digital acquisitions like AtomFilms and Shockwave, and gaming freeware instant messaging service Xfire, at Viacom 15 years ago). I also think CBS Interactive CEO Marc Debevoise is one of the smartest executives in the streaming space, and both CBS All-Access and Pluto TV are therefore in unusually capable hands.”
Global GDP vs. global ad spend according to GroupM:
YoY growth for the U.S. ad market: 1) 2009 – ↓ 16% 2) 2020 – ↓ 13%
Quote from Brian Wieser – Global President, Business Intelligence @ GroupM: “That we ‘only’ expect a 13% decline is surprising. We might normally expect that because the 2020 economic decline is so much worse than 2009, advertising should be much weaker.”
The home video kit included: 1) Camera 2) iPhone 3) Tripods
FYI: Discovery spent $3.3B on content last year.
Quote from Gunnar Wiedenfels – CFO @ Discovery: “We have been creating some very successful content with very scrappy equipment. It felt the more real and authentic the content became during the crisis, the better it worked with our audience.”
Big question: When will non-remote film and television production be able to resume?
Quick answer: California is starting to open up, but most don’t expect much until late-July.
Scripted television projects by location according to FilmLA:
1) California – 72
2) New York – 29
3) British Columbia – 24
4) Georgia – 20
5) Other – 22
Domestic feature films by state according to Film LA:
1) California – 62
2) New York – 57
3) Georgia – 36
4) Massachusetts – 10
5) Illinois – 8
6) Louisiana – 8
7) Nevada – 7
8) New Mexico – 7
9) Other – 62
Share of SVOD subscribers still active after one year according to ANTENNA:
1) Netflix – 65%
2) Hulu – 50%
3) CBS All Access – 49%
4) Starz – 48%
5) Showtime – 44%
6) HBO Now – 43%
Share of SVOD subscribers that cancel within three months: 1) Showtime – 34%
2) HBO Now – 31%
3) CBS All Access – 29%
4) Starz – 27%
5) Netflix – 23%
6) Hulu – 18%
Share of respondents who selected various services with $50 to spend according to Corus:
1) Netflix – 84%
2) Hulu – 57%
3) Disney+ – 49%
4) Amazon Prime – 48%
5) CBS All Access – 16%
6) Showtime – 13%
7) HBO – 12%
8) Apple TV+ – 12%
9) Starz – 10%
Average monthly household streaming video cost (% change) according to the Harris Poll:
1) Nov-19 – $30
2) Mar-20 – $37 (↑ 23%)
Share gain for streaming hours between February and March according to Comscore:
1) Netflix – ↑ 1.5%
2) Amazon Prime – ↑ 1.5%
3) Disney+ – ↑ 0.5% 4) YouTube – ↓ 0.1%
5) Other – ↓ 0.5% 6) Hulu – ↓ 2.9%
Big news: AMC has signed onto On Addressability, the addressable TV initiative launched with Comcast, Cox, and Charter’s Spectrum Reach last June.
Why this matters: Addressable TV advertising is primarily confined to the 2 minutes per hour that the local distributor (MVPD, etc.) can sell. This initiative aims to apply addressability from Comcast/Cox/Charter to the ≈ 14 minutes per hour that the network sells.
Ad minutes per hour (% of total):
1) National – 14 (87%) 2) Local – 2 (13%)
≈ 5-15% of Spectrum Reach’s linear inventory is used for addressable advertising.
Bottom line: Pay-TV providers can offer addressable advertising, but they only account for ≈ 3% of all TV ad impressions. Initiatives such as On Addressability or Project OAR offer a potential 10X increase in addressable TV ad impressions.
Quote from David Kline – President @ Charter’s Spectrum Reach: “If TV could act more like digital and get richer metrics and be able to, in a privacy-compliant way, help target [viewers] that focuses on audiences versus ratings, they would have something. Now they do. Now they have an opportunity to compete and make their networks more powerful through enablement through MVPDs (multichannel video programming distributors),”
Key details for NBA re-start: 1) All games played at the 220-acre ESPN Wide World of Sports Complex 2) No fans 3) The regular season resumes on July 31st 4) Abbreviated training camp set to start July 9th 5) 22teams 6) 88 games total (8 games per team)
Big question #1: Why is the NBA re-starting the season when fans cannot attend the games?
Quick answer: TV revenue. The NBA generates ≈ $2.6B/year from national TV deals alone.
NBA TV rights fees/year (% change) by deal according to Sports Business Journal:
1) 2002-08 – $767M
2) 2008-16 – $930M (↑ 62%) 3) 2016-25 – $2.6B (↑ 215%)
Big question #2: How big will the viewership be?
Mr. Screen’s Crystal Ball: Huge. Even though ratings through the All-Star Break were down 10%+ YoY, 6M people recently spent 20 hours watching a documentary about basketball!
YoY viewership change for NBA basketball through the All-Star Break according to Sports Business Journal:
1) ESPN –↓ 10% 2) All National –↓ 12% 3) TNT –↓ 13% 4) Local RSNs –↓ 13% 5) ABC –↓ 16%
Top 5 teams for YoY viewership gains (RSN only): 1) Los Angeles Clippers –↑ 86%
2) Orlando Magic –↑ 82%
3) Atlanta Hawks –↑ 49%
4) Miami Heat –↑ 39%
5) Milwaukee Bucks –↑ 24%
Bottom 5 teams for YoY viewership gains (RSN only): 1) Denver Nuggets –↓ 72%
2) Golden State Warriors –↓ 66%
3) Washington Wizards –↓ 55%
4) Charlotte Hornets –↓ 52%
5) Oklahoma City Thunder –↓ 51%
Big question #3: Why 22 teams?
Quick answer: The NBA made the cut at 22 teams so that any team within 6 games of the final playoff spot could play on.
Big question #4: Why 88 games?
Quick answer: This number was not accidental. It will allow the league/teams to fulfill minimum game requirements from TV deals. For example, the Los Angeles Lakers generate $1.5M/game from their local (RSN) deal with Spectrum SportsNet.
Bottom line: 259 games remained in the regular season, so 66% of these games will be canceled.
Key details for the NBA “bubble”: 1) ≈ 1,500 people will be inside 2) 28 total per team 3) 15 players per team 4) 4 coaches per team 5) 5 trainers/strength coaches 6) 4 others (equipment manager, PR, logistics and security) per team 7) 300-350 hotel workers
Share of U.S. homes w/ CTV/OTT device according to Leichtman Research Group: 1) 2010 – 24% 2) 2015 – 57% 3) 2018 – 74% 4) 2020 – 80%
Big question #2: How much has ad-supported streaming grown during the lockdown?
YoY increase in CTV/OTT ad inventory according to The Trade Desk: 1) February – ↑ 35% 2) March – ↑ 57% 3) April – ↑ 54%
Share of CTV viewing time in 2020-Q1 according to Hedgeye: 1) Roku – 44% 2) Fire TV – 19% 3) XBOX – 10% 4) Apple TV – 8% 5) Other – 7% 6) Chromecast – 6% 7) Playstation – 5% 8) Samsung – 1%
Connected TV ad spend (YoY growth) according to eMarketer:
1) 2019P – $7B (↑ 38%) 2) 2020P – $9B (↑ 28%) 3) 2021P – $11B (↑ 22%) 4) 2022P – $12B (↑ 16%) 5) 2023P – $14B (↑ 13%)
Cross Screen: Disney is launching an offering called Disney Hulu XP that will combine Hulu and Disney’s TV networks into a single buy.
Disney Hulu XP networks include:
1) Hulu 2) Freeform 3) ABC 4) ESPN
Quote from Nicolle Pangis – CEO @ Ampersand: “Consumers don’t care where or how they are watching. Whether it’s linear, OTT, or VOD, to them it’s all TV.
