Nine Reasons Why Disney+ Will Succeed (And Why Four Criticisms are Overhyped)


Worth the time: Matthew Ball and the REDEF team break down nine reasons why Disney+ will succeed.

Studio with the top grossing movie:
1)
2015 — Disney
2) 2016— Disney
3) 2017— Disney
4) 2018— Disney
5) 2019— Probably Disney (Avengers: Endgame)

Interesting stat: Consumers are already spending $2.6B — $3.0B per year on Disney home video. With a digital service delivered direct to consumer, Disney would keep ≈ 70–85% which is more than they take home now after paying the costs (Best Buy, etc.) of getting DVDs into their customer’s hands.

Quick math #1 on the potential opportunity for Disney+ from home video market:
1) Home video revenue/year — $2.6B — $3.0B
2) Home video revenue/month — $217M — $250M
3) Monthly subscription cost — $6
4)
Potential customers from home video market — 36M — 42M

Quick math #2 on the potential opportunity for Disney+ from parents:
1) U.S. households w/ children — 36M
2) Monthly subscription cost — $6
3)
Revenue/month from parents — $216M
4) Revenue/year from parents — $2.6B

The Disney ecosystem:


More #1: Disney’s deal for Fox will be successful if it persuades investors to value it like Netflix

More #2: Disney Moves From Behemoth to Colossus With Closing of Fox Deal

More #3: Disney-Fox deal is complete; CEO Bob Iger’s big swing could change media industry


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