Netflix crushes estimates, renewing faith after July letdown

Netflix crushed Q3 estimates for subscriber growth beating Wall Street estimates by 37%.

Subscriber growth in 2018-Q3:
1)
Projected — 5.1M
2)
Actual — 7.0M


Total subscribers by quarter (% growth):
1)
2012-Q3–29.4M
2)
2013-Q3–40.3M (↑ 37%)
3) 2014-Q3–53.1M (↑ 32%)
4) 2015-Q3–69.2M (↑ 30%)
5) 2016-Q3–86.7M (↑ 25%)
6) 2017-Q3–109.2M (↑ 26%)
7) 2018-Q3–137.1M (↑ 26%)


Subscriber growth in 2018-Q3 (% of total):
1)
Domestic — 1.1M (16%)
2) International — 5.9M (84%)
3) Total — 7.0M

Total subscribers (% of total):
1) Domestic — 58.5M (43%)
2) International — 78.6M (57%)
3) Total — 137.1M

Netflix is projecting 7.6M new subscribers in Q4!

Flashback #1: Inside the Binge Factory

Netflix subscribers:
1) 2011–25M
2) 2018–137M
3) 2020P — 200M
4) 2030P — 360M

Flashback #2: Netflix Is Expected to Spend up to $13 Billion on Original Programming This Year

Netflix content spend by year (YoY increase):
1) 2013 — $2B 
2)
2014 — $3B (↑ 50%)
3) 2015 — $4B (↑ 33%)
4) 2016 — $5B (↑ 25%)
5) 2017 — $6B (↑ 20%)
6) 2018 — $8B (↑ 33%)
7) 2019P — $10B (↑ 26%)
8) 2020P — $12B (↑ 20%)
9) 2021P — $14B (↑ 17%)
10) 2022P — $16B (↑ 13%)


Watch: Julia Boorstin breaks down Netflix Q3 numbers.


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